The TLDR: On Tuesday, Israelis trudged out to the voting booths to cast their ballots in the fourth national election in two years! Each time, the polls have thrown up a split verdict—and foiled all attempts to oust current PM Benjamin Netanyahu. And this one isn’t likely to throw up a decisive result either. 

A timeline of electoral duds

• This streak of electoral madness kicked off in April, 2019, when the Netanyahu-led Likud Party appeared poised to form the government—despite a close election. 
• But his rightwing coalition fell apart, and he couldn’t secure the 61-seat majority required to form the government. 
• So he called a second snap poll in September, but the Likud party only scored 31 seats—lower than the 35 they won in April. Irrespective, the opposition didn’t secure enough votes to break the deadlock.
• So everyone went back to the polling booth again, this time in March, 2020. Netanyahu’s arch rival, Benny Gantz drummed up a thin majority. And the political horse-trading resulted in a shaky alliance between the two. 
• They formed a Unity Government, on the understanding that the two will take turns at the PM gaddi. 
• But by the time it was Gantz’s turn in November, the match made in political hell fell apart. Hence, here we are again. 

Point to note: No single party has ever been able to secure an outright majority in Israel. So it’s always been ruled by a coalition government.

Meet the corrupt Prime Minister

Netanyahu faces three serious charges of corruption—all of which will be very familiar to any Indian.

The goodie bags: Netanyahu and his wife Sara received gifts worth $300,000 from two men: Arnon Milchan, an Israeli Hollywood film producer, and James Packer, an Australian billionaire. The charge is that the PM interceded to benefit Milchan in exchange for these goods—"mainly cigar boxes and cases of champagne.”

The ‘presstitute’ #1: Netyanhu conducted secret meetings with the controlling shareholder of the Yedioth Ahronoth media group—which publishes one of the leading Israeli newspapers. The quid pro quo included “improving the coverage” the PM received in the media group. 

The ‘presstitute’ #2: Netanyahu allegedly had a "reciprocal arrangement" with the controlling shareholder in Israel's biggest telecommunications company—which also owned the news website Walla. The owner "exerted substantial and continuing pressure" on the director-general of Walla to change its coverage to suit Netanyahu’s demands. In return, the PM “promoted significant business interests of Mr Elovitch of substantial financial value."

The big trial: Netanyahu has been under investigation since 2016. And he’s been desperately trying to win outright—and use his parliamentary majority to avoid prosecution. After he failed in the March 2020 election, trial proceedings started in May—but nothing happened due to the pandemic. And now it is set to formally kick off after the election. So once again, Netanyahu—who has brazenly refused to resign—is hoping that the voters will save him:

“He says he will leave office only through the ballot box, arguing that the charges against him are trumped up, and fostered by unelected bureaucrats seeking to force him out of office against the will of the electorate.”

Is the fourth time the charm?

The spoilers: Netanyahu’s biggest threat is not his traditional rivals, the Left or the Arab parties—all of whom are in a state of disarray. His real challenge comes from two defectors—Naftali Bennett and Gideon Saar—who left in protest, and have formed their own parties. Someone like Saar shares the same ideological orientation, but offers traditional Likud voters “a highly pro-Israeli right-wing agenda, but without the stigma of corruption and dismay for constitutional norms.” His New Hope party is most likely to deny Netanyahu what he needs to win: a united rightwing vote for Likud and its allies.

Point to note: Netanyahu has compensated by cuddling up to “rabidly racist and militant” parties like Jewish Power—which is linked to terrorist plots both in the US and Israel, and implicated in the 1994 massacre of 29 Palestinians. Nice!

Exit polls: predict that both Netanyahu’s Likud party and its allies—and the opposition—will fall well short of a majority, setting the stage for an unprecedented fifth election! And unlike many Indian exit polls, the Israeli kind are generally accurate. They show Netanyahu shoring up only 53-54 seats, while his opponents will win 59. The possible kingmaker: the Yamina party which is projected to win 7-8 seats. 

Point to remember: The majority required is 61. 

The bottomline: The Palestinians will finally go to the polls after 15 years in May—and 93% have registered to vote. In stark contrast, this: “A poll from the Israel Democracy Institute found that only 37% of Israelis were optimistic about the future of democratic governance, a drop of 17 points since Israel first began its election merry-go-round in April 2019.”

Reading list

Al Jazeera has the best analysis of the election, while Associated Press offers a solid explainer. The Hindu has the exit poll results. BBC News and the New York Times have a good overview of the corruption charges against Netanyahu. The Atlantic offers an interview with Yair Lapid—the leader of the second largest party after Likud—who draws interesting parallels between Netanyahu and Trump. Washington Post draws parallels between the state of the Israeli and Palestinian elections.