The TLDR: Once again, the mountainous stretches of the state have been hit by severe flooding—killing at least seven, while 170 people are still missing. The waters also swept away two under-construction dams. Initial theories about the cause point to the usual suspects: massive development projects and global warming. 

Tell me about this flood

It was triggered by what scientists call a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). Given the situation is still unfolding, they only have theories about what triggered this sudden and exponential burst of water. 

Leading theory: A large chunk of ice broke away from the Nanda Devi glacier—and fell into a glacial lake (created by melting glaciers) below. This lake rapidly overflowed and flooded the two tributaries of the Ganges below: Dhauliganga and the Alakananda—which rose three metres above normal.

Related theory: Another expert told The Hindu:

“Satellite and Google Earth images do not show a glacial lake near the region, but there’s a possibility that there may be a water pocket in the region. Water pockets are lakes inside the glaciers, which may have erupted leading to this event.”

A developing theory: Planet Labs’ satellite imagery appears to show that the disaster was initially caused by a large landslide onto a glacier, which then transitioned into the flood.

The consequences: The flash floods swept away all the houses, but the worst hit were workers on the two dams: the Rishiganga Hydropower Project and the NTPC’s Tapovan Hydropower Project. Most of those missing are labourers at the Tapovan project. The clip below shows the speed and ferocity of the flooding (Watch more remarkable views of the flood here and here.):

Wait, is this like the floods in 2013?

Yes and no. 

No, as in the 2013 floods were caused by a ‘cloudburst’, i.e. a torrential downpour of over 100 mm per hour in a concentrated area of 20-80 square kilometres. In comparison, most regions receive 20 mm of rain a day during the monsoons. It led to severe flooding that damaged 4,200 villages, and resulted in 6,000 deaths.

Yes, in that the severity of the damage was caused by out-of-control construction of roads, hotels, shops and housing in ecologically fragile areas to serve tourism. But the biggest factor: mushrooming hydroelectricity dams—which proved lethal when the floods began:

“But this time the floodwaters, laden with tens of thousands of tonnes of silt, boulders and debris from dam construction, found no outlet. The routes they took in the past, including ravines and streams, were blocked with sand and rocks. The waters inundated scores of towns and villages, submerging some buildings under several feet of mud, smothering life.”

No lessons learned: After the 2013 floods, the Supreme Court ordered a stay on all new hydroelectric projects. An expert committee formed at the time clearly warned against construction of hydroelectric projects above 2,200 metres back in 2014. But the environmental ministry rejected its findings. And the government kept appointing a new committee until it arrived at the recommendation it wanted, i.e. the clearance of six dams—including the Rishiganga and Tapovan projects.

A member of the first 2014 committee says:

“To say that today’s Rishi Ganga disaster is a natural disaster or God’s act is the biggest lie. The state and Centre have brought this disaster on the people. In 2014, our report had clearly highlighted that dams and hydropower projects are not suited for this terrain and after that SC stayed 24 projects. If not for that stay, today there would have been lakhs of deaths because most of those projects are located upstream and downstream of the Rishi Ganga valley.”

Ok, and where does climate change come in?

It’s connected to the original cause of this disaster: the glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). The glaciers in the Himalayas are melting. This has resulted in the rise in both the size and number of glacial lakes. And experts predict that many of these new lakes will develop closer to steep and potentially unstable mountain walls—which keep these lakes secure—triggering more GLOFs. The warming temperatures also thaw the permafrost—the frozen soil underneath that keeps the mountain sides stable—leading to more avalanches (which in turn gives credence to the Planet Labs’ theory).

Two 2019 studies laid out the grim contours of this crisis:

Study #1: warned that 36% of the glaciers along in the Hindu Kush and Himalaya range will be gone by 2100. But that’s only if we manage to restrict the rise in Earth’s temperature to 1.5C—which is the most ambitious target set by the Paris Agreement on climate change. But if we fail, the Himalayas could lose two-thirds of its glaciers by 2100.

Study #2: looked at satellite images of 650 glaciers spanning 40 years and across 1,200 miles of India, China, Nepal, and Bhutan. Researchers found that the glaciers have lost 1.5 feet of ice every year since 2000—which is twice the melting rate between 1975 and 2000. In recent years, the rate was equivalent to eight billion tons of water per year—think 3.2 million Olympic-size swimming pools.

The consequences: As Outside magazine concisely puts it, “[F]irst, too much water, and then not enough.” First, the deluge of meltwater from the glaciers will build up and trigger catastrophic flooding. Then the glaciers will shrink and recede creating a water shortage of unthinkable proportions. All the major Indian rivers in the North are fed by Himalayan glaciers. Nearly two billion people across nations rely on them for irrigation, hydropower and drinking water. 

Point to note: The Himalayas will get warmer and faster than the other regions because of something called ‘elevation-dependent warming’. There is growing evidence that warming rates are “amplified with elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature than environments at lower elevations.”

The bottomline: Last year, Uttarakhand government submitted a Supreme Court affidavit in support of a company that wanted to resume work on a hydroelectric project on the Alaknanda. It said:

“It may be respectfully reiterated…that the Uttarakhand government has been facing acute power shortage in recent times and has been forced to purchase electricity amounting to Rs 1,000 crore annually, casting an additional burden on the finances of the hilly state.”

And yet if we continue in this fashion, we may not have water or electricity or even food. Sustainability requires hard choices, and no one (including us) appears to be willing to make them.

Reading list

The Telegraph has the best overview of the floods, and a handy explainer on what triggered it. Hindustan Times reports on how the government has been doing its best to sidestep environmental concerns since 2013. Mongabay looks at how the 2013 catastrophe did little to stem the tide of construction. National Geographic has the most details on the study that used satellite imagery to track the extent of glacial retreat in the Himalayas. Both New York Times and The Guardian carried the report predicting the future of the Himalayan glaciers.