The TLDR: The BJP leadership finally managed to put one of the oldest and best-known faces in Karnataka politics out to pasture. And since this is Yeddy, the event was filled with drama—and, of course, tears. But picking his replacement may prove far trickier.

The grand resignation...

Came in a flood of tears as the infamously weepy Chief Minister once again opened to the water taps to announce his exit, saying, “I have decided to go to the Raj Bhavan after lunch and submit my resignation — not out of sadness but in all happiness”—presumably because it’s never wise to resign on an empty stomach. Watch him below:

The big lead up: The announcement came after days of breathless speculation as to whether the chief panjandrums of the party would publicly fire him—a situation that Yediyurappa encouraged by claiming he was waiting for Delhi to say the word. All of which was very odd and unnecessary since—as Times of India points out—BSY had already submitted his resignation on July 10. He wrote:

“However, with my prevailing health situation, I have not been able to do complete justice in the administration. Hence, I am requesting you to relieve me from my position as Minister of Karnataka. I will fully cooperate with you in selecting the next suitable replacement. I will continue to work for the party and the welfare of the people. I will give my service in the nation building exercise under your leadership. Kindly accept my resignation and allow me to discharge from my duties.”

But dragging out the inevitable served a bigger purpose—to make his exit appear to be a difficult choice for a leadership that has long been eager to shove him out the door:

“Creating a spectacle out of the wait, he had marvelously turned it into a Beckettian absurdist theatre. By doing so, he was cleverly creating a perception among his constituents that the BJP leadership was undecided about him. By repeatedly saying he will quit the moment he hears from Delhi, he was creating a plot to suggest that the BJP was struggling to find an acceptable replacement for him, and hence may be give him more time.”

A man for all parties: He is perhaps the only BJP CM whose exit prompted a rousing show of support from Congress that put his own supporters to shame. The party spokesperson passionately tweeted:

“The ignominy, torment & insult being heaped upon Sh. BS Yediyurappa by Modi ji, dictating him to tender his resignation, makes him PM’s latest victim and member of the ‘forced retirement club’.”

Yediyurappa, a uniter not a divider!

Point to note: In his speech, Yediyurappa also pointedly reminded everyone that the BJP had a piddling presence in Karnataka until he came along: “At a time when there were no cars, I remember cycling to work for the BJP party in Shikaripura, Shimoga. We, along with a few BJP workers, built the party and took it to where it is today.”

Why Yeddy had to go

There are four reasons why the Modi-Shah combine decided that BSY’s days were numbered.

One: Age. With the next state elections in 2023, the 78-year old will be far too old by then to be projected as the Chief Minister. And he is already three years past the unofficial retirement age imposed by the BJP leadership on all its leaders. One party source told The Hindu: “We are to face elections after two years, and the leadership should be such that would run for the next five years, that is why Yediyurappa has been asked to resign.”

Two: Corruption. The always-in-trouble BSY is a problem for an image-conscious BJP that prefers a morally pristine candidate. And in Yediyurappa’s case, he has been embarrassingly called out by his own party leaders for dubious decisions—including a land deal in Bellary. His own minister of rural development accused him of “serious lapses” and misusing funds of his department. And he is facing legal action over the coup he engineered to oust the Congress-JDS government in 2019—when he “wooed” a number of ruling party MLAs to defect to the BJP.

Three: His son. Vijayendra is the Vice President of Karnataka BJP—and the person BSY has heavily leaned on during his current stint as CM. And his critics accuse him of basically running the show:

“With the exception of a few trusted allies, as Yediyurappa cut himself off from the rest of his party, allegations of Vijayendra running a parallel government grew louder. Many ministers complained that Vijayendra interfered in their ministries by communicating directly with the officers, keeping them in the dark. Many MLAs alleged that funds to their constituencies were also determined by Vijayendra. Several BJP leaders accused Vijayendra of blocking access to Yediyurappa.”

And his alleged “interference and corruption” has become a lightning rod for internal party turmoil—spilling out into public rebellion.

Four: An independent streak. Much like Frank Sinatra—and to the irritation of the party’s high command—Yediyurappa has done things his way. For example, he handed out by-election tickets to the rebel Congress/JDS MLAs—ignoring party loyalists—over objections of his party. And despite being an RSS man, he has been reluctant to embrace a hardcore Hindutva agenda a la Yogi Adityanath or even others within the Karnataka BJP.

Why Yeddy is here to stay

But unlike other senior citizens who were easy to sideline, BSY remains a threat despite his exit. The one big reason: The Lingayat voting bloc. The community accounts for 16-17% of the state's population and BSY is their man—as the Lingayat religious leaders loudly made clear in the run up to his resignation. And after the announcement, one of them warned: “BS Yediyurappa has given his resignation in pain. Karnataka BJP will be washed away in tears. BJP should reconsider its decision.”

The biggest voting bloc in the state has played a key role in elections—and can determine the fate of 35-40% of the Assembly seats. And making them unhappy can have serious electoral consequences—as the Congress demonstrated in 1990. When Rajiv Gandhi dismissed then Lingayat Chief Minister Veerendra Patil, the community shifted its loyalties to the opposition, and has not looked back… until now:

“The decision to remove Yediyurappa from the chief minister’s post now opens another chance for this vote bank to shift. ‘The BJP doesn’t have a big Lingayat leader apart from Yediyurappa. Even though there are attempts to projects some leaders, the community has not accepted them so far. If the Lingayat community takes this move as an insult, similar to what happened with the removal of Veerendra Patil, the equations in Karnataka’s caste politics could change,’ said a Lingayat leader from the BJP, who didn’t want to be named.”

And the last time Yeddy walked away from the BJP—in 2013 when he formed his own party—he took the Lingayat vote with him. So as long as he is around, the big party honchos will have to keep him happy. After all, the party will have to contest not just the state elections in 2023, but also the national elections in 2024.

What Yeddy wants: Like all good daddies, he wants to secure the future of his two sons in the party. Vijayendra is angling for the Deputy Chief Minister post, FYI. And BSY wants to have a say in naming his successor. 

After Yeddy, who?

There are two factors to consider—and it will depend on which is given more weight. One option is to choose someone from the Lingayat community—like minister for mining Murugesh Nirani or home minister Basavaraj Bommai. The other is to opt for a party loyalist with impeccable Hindutva credentials—like BJP national general secretary CT Ravi or Pralhad Joshi, union minister of coal or BJP national organising secretary B L Santhosh. 

Point to note: BSY would prefer a non-Lingayat CM if only because he wants to pass that mantle of community leadership to his sons. And the party leadership would prefer a less independent Chief Minister—unlike BSY who did not owe his success to either Modi’s charisma or BJP’s ideology. 

The big worry: is that New Delhi will opt for a hardliner who may prove to be a disaster for a diverse state like Karnataka, say experts:

“So far they have only been partially successful only in the coastal region… If you bring such communal rhetoric it will fail. So whoever becomes the BJP’s next CM, they have to be reconciliatory. They will try to be communal but it will not work. And Yediyurappa realised this a long time ago.”

In the end, it will be a hard choice between someone who epitomises BJP’s brand of governance or can win the election in 2023:

“How will the party balance both these imperatives remains to be seen. Will they choose an ideological hardliner as CM with the expectation that that is what the party needs in the state? Or, will they find someone like Yeddyurappa who was not an ideological hardliner to be that person? Clearly, the choice made in this regard will mean different consequences for the traditions of cultural democracy in Karnataka.”

The bottomline: Karnataka is the only BJP bastion in South India—and they’ve held onto it (by hook or crook) thanks to a political maverick like BSY. The usual Modi-Shah-RSS preference for a member of the BJP faithful may not work in a state that doesn’t care very much about the party’s leader or its ideology.

Reading list

Times of India accessed BSY’s resignation letter. The News Minute has an excellent piece on the prospects of a Hindutva hardliner as CM. Indian Express profiles the frontrunners for BSY’s successor. The Federal explains why Yediyurappa cannot be simply wished away. The Hindu looks at BSY’s record while Indian Express profiles his tumultuous career. The News Minute and The Hindu profile Yeddy’s overly ambitious son, Vijayendra. And Moneycontrol analyses why the BJP faces a Catch 22 in Karnataka. Hindustan Times and Indian Express have more on the powerful Lingayat community.