TLDR: Between the disastrous second wave and the lost election in Bengal, this has not been a good year for the saffron party. And its woes show no signs of receding as troubles in different states add to its headache in Delhi. Here’s a quick jaunt through BJP’s big trouble-spots.
State of play: The BJP did abysmally in the recent state elections, garnering exactly zero seats—losing the one seat it had to CPI(M). The state party chief K Surendran failed to win either of the two seats he contested. The embarrassing setback did little to endear Surendran to his own party—which has always been split among factions, many of whom have been clamouring for his head. They have been blunt in their criticism:
“I have never seen the state president of a party contesting from two seats. The helicopter politics will not create any impact in Kerala. The trick that works in north India will not work here.”
The hawala tamasha: Money that has to be kept off the books is routinely moved via hawala networks—informal channels that physically transport huge wads of cash from Point A to B. The people transporting this cash are also attractive targets for gangsters—who waylay and loot them while in transit. Since the money is kinda shady, most don’t even file a police report. But unfortunately for the BJP, this is what happened instead:
Adding to BJP’s troubles: There are at least two new allegations of corruption hanging over Surendran’s head. In one case, a newly defected leader says he was paid Rs 2.5 lakh plus in-kind bribes to withdraw his nomination from one of the seats contested by Surendran. In the other case, he is accused of bribing a tribal leader, giving her Rs 10 lakh to attend an election meeting with Home Minister Amit Shah—and there is a viral video clip being presented as evidence. A case has been registered against Surendran in the first instance.
To sum up: The BJP party at the centre is squarely implicated in the election corruption allegations against Surendran. The reason: his close relationship with union cabinet minister V Murleedharan. One state BJP leader tells The Print: “[The] core of this loot and black money case belongs to Surendran and Muraleedharan, who were given a free hand in the management of resources and to lead the election.” And a former state BJP chief says:
“There is nothing new in the distribution of election funds given by the central unit to candidates, but the crisis has become deeper because, without doing homework at the grassroots level, we want to become the alternative force by hook or by crook.”
But, but, but: the BJP is stuck with Surendran for now because “any change in state leadership will prove the loot case credible… that the BJP used black money through hawala for Kerala polls, which will create embarrassment for the whole party.”
The state of play: The aftermath of the state election has been as acrimonious as the electoral battle—with each side charging the other of foul play. The BJP has been using the CBI to go after Trinamool leaders, while fiercely complaining about post-poll violence targeting its party workers. Leading the charge, Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly Suvendu Adhikari—a recent defector from Trinamool ranks—who claims the situation “is far worse than what is required for the Centre to impose President’s rule under Article 356.”
Notably, Adhikari was promptly contradicted by his fellow defector and Bengal BJP leader Rajib Banerjee:
“People will not accept the constant threats of Delhi and imposition of Article 356 being posed to a government that has come to power with an overwhelming mandate. We should rise above politics and stand by people affected by the Covid pandemic and Cyclone Yaas.”
FYI: Banerjee joined the BJP in the presence of Amit Shah after being dramatically flown to Delhi in a private jet arranged by the party.
The ghar wapsi chorus: As with Kerala, electoral defeat has splintered the BJP ranks—but in this case, the rift could trigger a ‘reverse exodus’—as a number of the Trinamool leaders who defected to the BJP are contemplating returning home. Trinamool claims 35 BJP MLAs are ready to leave. Giving force to that claim: Three former TMC MLAs have openly expressed regret at joining the BJP.
But most embarrassing for the saffron party will be the loss of its national vice-president Mukul Roy—the big Trinamool prize it has handsomely rewarded. Roy’s son Subhrangshu recently thanked CM Mamata Banerjee for reaching out during his mother’s illness, saying, “West Bengal does not accept divisive politics. I have understood that…Anything is possible in politics.” Anything, indeed!
Point to note: Mamata has generously made clear,“Those who had left the party will be welcomed if they want to come back.” But not everyone in her party shares the sentiment:
“Almost all those who have lost the elections will have no other option but to return to the TMC because they will face a backlash from the BJP old guard. But a section within our party is not keen to take back the traitors.”
The state of play: The BJP just secured a prominent defection—that of prominent UP Congress leader Jitin Prasada. There is much excitement over how his entry will help the BJP secure the Brahmin vote in the upcoming state elections in February/March 2022. The party hopes this big heist will change the narrative—from dead bodies in the Ganga to the further decimation of Congress.
But much of this is an attempt to paper over deeper worries about the fate of UP—where rising anger at CM Yogi Adityanath may prove damaging to the party’s electoral fortunes. As The Print notes:
“Retaining power in UP in 2022 is crucial for the BJP, and a good performance is considered one of the keys to Narendra Modi remaining prime minister in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections too. UP is India’s most crucial state in the Lok Sabha elections, given that its number of MPs—80—is almost twice that of the next state on the list, Maharashtra (48).”
Even a subpar victory will put the party on the defensive in the runup to the 2024 national elections. And the omens—evidenced in the recent panchayat elections—are not favourable. The BJP suffered key defeats in its strongholds, including Varanasi, Ayodhya and Mathura. One party leader admitted to Deccan Herald:
“'In the eastern and central regions, we had to face the anger of the people owing to the scarcity of oxygen and a large number of deaths while in the western region the farmers' protests against farm laws went against us.''
Modi vs Yogi: While in other states, the PM looms large as the face of the party, Adityanath is king in UP. And there has been a groundswell of anger against him both among voters—and within his own party who are unhappy with his dictatorial “style of management.” But more worrying is the knock-on damage to Modi’s own image, according to a BJP leader:
“Hundreds of bodies floating down the Ganga in Unnao, Kanpur etc. became the defining moment of ill-preparedness, and given the PM’s bond with the holy river and with Varanasi being his constituency, this is the first time people are pointing fingers at the PM’s effort and sincerity.”
This may explain why Adityanath didn’t receive his traditional birthday greetings from Modi et al this year.
But, but, but: The party establishment cannot afford to replace Adityanath, or even cut him down to size, and for several reasons. One, Adityanath commands the personal loyalty of enough MLAs to be difficult to push around. Messing with him and his supporters will create chaos in the run-up to the state election. But as importantly:
“In virtually every BJP campaign for states ranging from Bihar to Bengal, he has been given the status of a star campaigner. So, to downsize him in any real way right now would be seen as an admission of a mistake.”
Also, Adityanath—who is greatly favoured by the RSS—is the party’s Hindutva poster boy:
“While Yogi Adityanath's administrative credentials were doubted - and his deliverables are not seen as particularly impressive, his Hindutva icon status has provided a strong cover. ‘He is not a UP leader anymore. He is a Hindutva icon who has mass appeal across the country. Even state units from the south want him to come and campaign,’ said a senior BJP leader from UP.”
To sum up: For all of Modi’s immeasurable power, he can’t simply wish Yogi away, or make any decision that will jeopardize UP: “It is clear we won’t get more than the 18 [Lok Sabha] seats we won in Bengal in 2019, after Mamata’s victory in the assembly elections. So, any misadventure in UP will be suicidal. We can’t afford that.”
The bottomline: Electoral defeats always result in great bickering and dissension in the states—all of which can be managed if the national party is strong in the centre. Unfortunately for the BJP, it is fighting fires on almost every front. But time is still on its side.
Deccan Herald and The Federal have best on the big picture in UP. The Print and NDTV look specifically at a problem called Yogi. The Wire and The News Minute have the most details on the hawala case. The Print looks at BJP infighting in Kerala. The Hindustan Times looks at rifts within the Bengal BJP unit, while NDTV and The Federal report on the ghar wapsi trend.
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