The TLDR: Trump has become the only US president to be impeached twice in the nation’s 332-year history. And he may become the first president to be convicted, as well. But only if a decisive number of Republicans break ranks in the Senate. We explain what happened, why and what is likely to happen next.

Some basic background

The process: The US Constitution allows Congress to remove a sitting president on charges of “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” The President is impeached by the House—which basically indicts him on specific ‘articles’, i.e. charges. And the trial is conducted in the Senate, the upper house of Congress. It is overseen by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, and the Senators act as the jury. Seven members of the House will act as “impeachment managers”—i.e. the prosecutors, while Trump’s lawyers will act as his defense team.

In January last year, the House approved two articles of impeachment. 

• Trump abused his powers as president to help himself get reelected this November. Specifically, he pressured Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky to dig up dirt on Hunter Biden—son of president elect Joe Biden who was the Democratic frontrunner in the presidential race.
• He was also charged with the obstruction of Congress—specifically, its investigation into the above abuse of power.

The impeachment vote

The charges: This time around the House voted to approve a single article of impeachment. The charge: Inciting a violent insurrection against the United States government.

The vote: 

• The resolution was approved 232 to 197—with ten Republicans breaking ranks to vote with the unanimous Democrats. 
• The most prominent among them: Liz Cheney, daughter of former Veep Dick Cheney—and who is the #3 Republican in the House. 
• And she didn’t pull any punches, saying: “There has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution.” 
• Even the top House Republican—who voted against the impeachment—admitted that Trump “bears responsibility” for the attack, but argued an impeachment “would further divide this nation.”

Up next: The Senate trial

The timing: Democrats would ideally like the Senate to start the trial asap—but current Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell has refused to play ball, and will not call the Senators back to Washington. The earliest the proceedings can kick off is January 19—one day before Joe Biden is sworn in. 

Point to note: So Trump will be tried after he leaves office—which is unprecedented for a president, as well. Legal scholars are split over whether the Constitution allows the Senate to try an ex-President. And Trump may challenge the trial, and take this all the way to the Supreme Court. So stay tuned for that drama.

A new Senate: Trump will also be tried by a Senate that is controlled by the Democrats. Thanks to two runoff races in Georgia held this month, the chamber is split 50-50 between the two parties—with Vice President Kamala Harris holding the tie-breaker vote. This means the Dems will make the rules about what evidence to admit, and which witnesses to call—unlike the last time around.

The winning total: To convict Trump, Democrats will need a two-thirds majority—i.e. their 50 votes plus 17 Republican allies. That is a big ask given that even some Democratic senators are not convinced that impeachment is a great idea. For example, Joe Manchin who said: “I think this is so ill-advised for Joe Biden to be coming in, trying to heal the country, trying to be the president of all the people when we are going to be so divided and fighting again.”

Also unenthusiastic: Joe Biden himself! According to his close aides, he “doesn’t see the practical need to introduce articles of impeachment so close to Trump’s departure”—and would rather spend his ‘honeymoon period’ focusing on his two big priorities: the pandemic and the economy. And his team is more worried about the prospect of a Senate too busy to approve his cabinet appointees or pass their bills.  

So why do it? If a president is indeed convicted, then there are two possible consequences laid out in the Constitution. One: He is kicked out of office which is moot in this case. Two: He can be banned from running for office ever again—which only needs a simple majority of 51-50. And that is a significant outcome given Trump has already made noises about running for president in 2024.

The Republican dilemma

The case against Trump: The Ukranian impeachment involved behind-the-doors conversations and confidential documents. But this time around, the key evidence is in plain view. As this New York Times op-ed notes:

“This is not a complex case factually. Audio of Mr. Trump’s call to Brad Raffensperger, the Georgia secretary of state, is in the public record. So are the president’s videotaped words inciting his supporters to march on the Capitol. The violence that followed was on television for all to see.”

And the law is pretty clear that challenging a lawful election using violent means constitutes treason. But like all facts, these are open to wide interpretation—especially when the political stakes are high.

The temptation: For the past four years, the Republican leadership have been slaves to Trump’s every whim. The reason: He controls the party’s base, and therefore their political fortunes. The temptation of being rid of him once and for all—by banning a 2024 run—is considerable. Senate’s #1 Republican Mitch McConnell is reportedly pleased with the decision to impeach Trump—and is keeping an “open mind” on which way he will vote. More importantly: He will not use his position to ‘whip’ the Republicans in line to vote against the Dems. 

Point to note: Unqualified support of Trump is also hitting their wallet—with the GOP’s biggest donors pulling contributions to all Republicans who voted to challenge the election results. It is unclear how these companies will view their impeachment vote, but the financial pressure is tremendous.

The fear: Yes, Republicans are worried that their Trump-loving constituents will punish them for breaking with their leader. But they are also fearful for their own lives. One Democratic House representative said his colleagues are “paralysed with fear”—while the senior correspondent of Politico tweeted: 

“Numerous House Rs have received death threats in the past week, and I know for a fact several members *want* to impeach but fear casting that vote could get them or their families murdered. Not spinning or covering for anyone. Just stating the chilling reality.”

That fear led a number of House Republicans to vote to challenge the election results—right after the riots—even though they personally knew it was wrong.

In sum: As the Washington Post points out, most Republicans have avoided defending Trump, and have stayed quiet—buying time to figure out the direction of the political wind.  

Point to note: The latest polls show that Americans are almost evenly split over the impeachment—but clear majorities blame Trump for the riots, which is the essence of the charge against him. 

The bottomline: Even if Trump is convicted and banned from political office, it doesn’t change the reality that America is a bitterly divided nation. As House member Ro Khanna puts it: 

“How do we find any common ground with the 40% of people who still believe the president?... You can kick him off of Twitter. You can impeach him. You can hold him to account. But that's not going to break through [to] a huge population … who believe the reality that Trump has created.”

Reading List

• The Hill has a good overview of the impeachment vote. 
• Washington Post has the four big takeaways and an insider report on the view of the Biden camp.
• Vox has the most comprehensive take on what’s likely to happen next, and why Republicans are afraid of their own voters.
• New York Times has the latest polls, and an excellent op-ed—penned together by a leading Republican and Democrat—laying out the case for conviction. 
• Also see: Axios on why Republicans want to be rid of Trump, and New York Times exclusive on what Mitch McConnell’s thinking right now.

In other Trump-related news

• Investigators are looking at evidence that the siege on the Capitol building was not a spontaneous riot but a planned attack. Also: rightwing extremists have moved to Telegram to make their plans for Inauguration Day.
• Trump put out a video message asking his supporters to remain peaceful—and condemning those who attacked Congress.
• YouTube has temporarily suspended Trump's channel and removed his video for violating its policy against inciting violence.
• Former and current members of law enforcement agencies and the military seem to have participated in last week's chaos in Washington. The US Capitol Police has already suspended "several" of its own and will investigate at least 10 officers for their action. The extent of the rot is still unknown.
• Adding to the ongoing horror: A manatee with “Trump” scraped onto its back was found in Florida—where it is a protected species. The good news: the poor sea cow appears to be fine since the words were carved not into its skin—but in the algae that covers it. See clip here.