The TLDR: Multiple reports reveal evidence of possible genocide in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. It also offers another ironic instance of a Nobel peace prize winner—in this case, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed—turning to ruthless violence to achieve their ends.

I don’t know anything about Ethiopia…

Let’s first give you a map to give you a better sense of what’s happening and where:

Ok, so here’s a timeline of events leading up to the present horror:

• Ethiopia was ruled by a military junta for many decades. Through the 70s and 80s, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) fought a war to overthrow the military.
• And it succeeded in 1991, becoming the leading member of a coalition government. 
• Within years, the TPLF also set up a federal system under which different ethnic groups control 10 separate regions. 
• But over the years, resentment against the TPLF’s authoritarian policies began to grow—and lead to widespread anti-government protests in 2018.
• The result: A government reshuffle which resulted in the appointment of Abiy as PM.
• Abiy is a member of the Oromo, Ethiopia's largest ethnic group, while TPLF represents, well, the Tigray. 
• Abiy set up a new Prosperity Party—which TPLF refused to join—and removed key Tigrayan leaders accused of corruption and brutality.
• He also moved to centralise power—which further escalated tensions since TPLF saw it as an attempt to destroy the federal system. 
• And he signed a peace agreement with neighbouring Eritrea—ending a decades long bloody territorial dispute. This is what earned Abiy the Nobel peace prize in 2019.
• The conflict came to a head when Abiy’s government postponed the national election citing the pandemic. This is notable since Abiy hasn’t actually faced an election since he took power in 2018.
• Naturally, the move enraged the TPLF which decided to hold a regional election in defiance. 
• On November 4, Abiy ordered a military attack on TPLF and Tigray. 

Ok, so the government is killing Tigrayans?

Not quite. Over a three week period, the government forces were able to take control of Tigray and oust the TPLF. But they had considerable help from soldiers from neighbouring Eritrea and fighters from an Ethiopian region called Amhara—which has long had an ethnic rivalry with Tigray. And they have been held responsible for the worst of the abuses—including rape, plunder and massacres that many say constitute war crimes.

The Amnesty report:  On February 26, Amnesty International released a report based on interviews with 41 survivors and witnesses to mass killings. They claim that Eritrean soldiers systematically killed hundreds of unarmed civilians in the northern city of Axum.

After gaining control of the town on November 19, the soldiers began to methodically kill its residents on November 28 and 29:

“The soldiers also continued to carry out house-to-house raids, hunting down and killing adult men, as well as some teenage boys and a smaller number of women. One man said he watched through his window and saw six men killed in the street outside his house... He said the soldiers lined them up and shot from behind, using a light-machine gun to kill several at a time with a single bullet.”

Amnesty has collected names of at least 240 of the dead, but estimates that the actual death toll is far higher.

An internal US report: accessed by the New York Times confirms the massacre, but points its finger at the Amhara militia—who are now running Tigray:

“The report, written earlier this month, documents in stark terms a land of looted houses and deserted villages where tens of thousands of people are unaccounted for. [Fighters from Amhara] are ‘deliberately and efficiently rendering Western Tigray ethnically homogeneous through the organized use of force and intimidation, the report says. ‘Whole villages were severely damaged or completely erased,’ the report said.”

Also a worry: The looming spectre of famine. A local NGO estimates that more than 4.5 million people in the region are in immediate need of emergency food assistance. And the situation has become even more dire due to widespread looting and destruction of hospitals, water sources and other essential services.

A CNN investigation: has since confirmed another “mountain massacre” on November 30 at Maryam Dengelat, a historic monastery complex. People had gathered to mark the Orthodox festival of Tsion Maryam—when Eritrean soldiers entered and opened fire. When pilgrims tried to flee, they followed and sprayed them with bullets. Then this happened:

“The soldiers went door to door, dragging people from their homes. Mothers were forced to tie up their sons. A pregnant woman was shot, her husband killed. Some of the survivors hid under the bodies of the dead.

 

The mayhem continued for three days, with soldiers slaughtering local residents, displaced people and pilgrims. Finally, on December 2, the soldiers allowed informal burials to take place, but threatened to kill anyone they saw mourning.”

Point to note: On November 30, PM Abiy told the Parliament that "not a single civilian was killed" during the military operation. 

No one’s trying to stop it?

The US: has finally condemned the atrocities, with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken saying, 

“We strongly condemn the killings, forced removals and displacements, sexual assaults, and other extremely serious human rights violations and abuses by several parties that multiple organizations have reported in Tigray.”

And he called for the "immediate withdrawal" of Eritrean forces and Amhara militia fighters. But the US has been reluctant to openly criticise Abiy. And it’s calling on the African Union to intervene.

The EU: has already blocked € 487 million in pandemic aid to Ethiopia due to “the absence of full humanitarian access to all areas of the conflict.” The EU statement also noted that “the situation on the ground goes well beyond a purely internal ‘law and order’ operation. We receive consistent reports of ethnic-targeted violence, killings, massive looting, rapes, forceful returns of refugees and possible war crimes.”

Point to note: Back in December, the African Union said Ethiopia took “legitimate” military action in Tigray to preserve the country's unity and stability.

Meanwhile in Ethiopia: After the release of the Amnesty report, the Abiy government now says it will cooperate with an international investigation into the killings. But it continues to block all humanitarian aid to most of Tigray. But Eritrea continues to refute all reports of its involvement—or even its presence within Tigray—calling them "preposterous" and "fabricated.” 

The bottomline: Genocides continue unimpeded throughout the world because all the so-called ‘good’ nations don’t want to get involved.

Reading list

CNN, New York Times and the Amnesty report offer the most comprehensive reports on the conflict. Associated Press looks at the looming threat of starvation. BBC News has a good backgrounder on the conflict, and a very good assessment of Abiy.