Editor’s note: This explainer was requested by founding member Sandip Roy.

The TLDR: The Islamic extremist group is seizing control of the nation with dizzying speed—and many expect Kabul to fall within 90 days. But who is funding these guys? And where are they getting their arms?

What’s happening right now?

The exodus: The country is in a state of panic as the Taliban advances in the north with astonishing speed. People from the provinces are leaving in waves for the safety of the capital Kabul—especially women who fear being forcibly “married” to Taliban fighters. In July, the UN warned that around 270,000 people had been forced to flee after troops started to leave—and this number has surged in just the last few days.

Taliban’s astounding success: in seizing one city after another has shocked both the US—and the Taliban themselves. They have toppled nine provincial capitals in six days and now control an estimated 65% of the country. This is what the map looks like right now:

In fact, the Taliban is deliberately holding back—waiting for the US to officially leave on August 31 before it targets key cities and provinces.

Kabul is next: The Taliban have taken over districts in three provinces that surround Kabul which is a potentially ominous sign. If those provinces fall, then “the path to take Kabul is wide open.” US defence officials say Kabul may fall within 90 days.

The coming civil war: Afghan president Ashraf Ghani is readying for battle. He has replaced his Army chief and rushed to the besieged northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif, trying to organize its defenses and halt the Taliban.

The US is outta here: President Biden will not revisit the plan to leave by the end of the month, telling reporters: “We spent over a trillion dollars, over 20 years. We trained and equipped with modern equipment over 300,000 Afghan forces ... they've got to fight for themselves.” The limited air strike support that is available now may also come to an end next month—and will be of no use once the Taliban swarm into cities, where the civilians are.

For more: on what is happening in the war between the Afghan government and the Taliban, check out our previous Big Story.

Who are these people?

Everyone knows of the Taliban, but we don’t know very much about them. Here’s a quick refresher:

• The Pashtun word Taliban means ‘students’ and originally referred to the disciples of its founder Mullah Omar. The mullah first gained fame as a mujahideen commander who helped push the Soviets out of the country in 1989. He founded the Taliban in 1994 and it quickly became a powerful force—first capturing Kandahar and then Kabul in 1996.
• They hanged President Najibullah Ahmadzai and declared Afghanistan an Islamic emirate, imposing a strict interpretation of Islamic law.
• The Taliban also gave sanctuary to Osama bin Laden—who used the country as a base to stage the 9/11 attacks. 
• The US invaded Afghanistan and ousted the Taliban—who remained in exile in Pakistan under Mullah Omar until his death in 2013. It is currently led by Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada and his three key commanders—including Omar’s son Mullah Yaqoub and Pakistan-backed Sirajuddin Haqqani.

So who is funding these guys?

Since 2011, the Taliban has set up a sophisticated parallel economy—with its own taxation and financial systems. In the fiscal year ending March 2020, the group brought in $1.6 billion—compared to the Afghan government’s $5.55 billion. Here are the sources of their wealth:

Drugs: $416 million. Afghanistan accounts for approximately 84% of global opium production—much of it controlled by the Taliban. They impose a 10% tax on every part of that supply chain within the country—the farmers, the labs who convert poppy into opium, and the sellers. The estimated annual export value of opium out of Afghanistan is between $1.5-$3 billion. The Taliban stoutly denies making any money from drugs—and points to its total ban on poppy cultivation when it was in power.

Mining: $400-464 million. The mining industry is worth at least $1 billion in a country rich with iron ore, marble, zinc etc. According to a 2018 BBC News report, the Taliban received $500 from each mineral truck. Both small-scale mineral-extraction operations and big Afghan mining companies pay militants to allow them to keep their businesses running. Those who don’t pay have faced death threats. The estimated revenue has since skyrocketed from $50 million in 2018 to nearly half a billion in the previous year. 

Extortion: $160 million. The Taliban ‘tax’ almost every economic activity in their areas—including media, telecommunications and development projects funded by international aid. Plus this: a 10% tax on a farmer’s harvest and ‘zakat’, a 2.5% wealth tax. Back in 2018, they earned $2 million just taxing consumers of electricity.

Donations: $240 million. Charities and private trusts located in Gulf countries contribute $150 million to $200 million each year—and many are on the US list of groups that fund terrorism. The largest individual donors are from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. They contributed at least $60 million last year to the Haqqani faction within the Taliban. 

Governments: Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have been suspected of funding the Taliban—to the tune of $500 million each year. But exact figures are hard to come by.

Other sources: include real estate ($80 million) and exports of various goods ($240 million).

And who is arming them?

Apart from an obvious suspect like Pakistan, two other nations have been accused at various times of arming the Taliban.

Iran: It's an odd alliance between a Shia government and a Sunni extremist group. But to Tehran, any enemy of the US is a potential ally, or at least a frenemy. Back in 2015, there was clear evidence that Iran was supplying weapons—and operating at least four Taliban training camps within its borders. The Wall Street Journal also interviewed one commander who admitted to receiving 82mm mortars, light machine guns, AK-47 rifles, rocket-propelled grenades and materials for making roadside bombs. But Tehran’s current position is unclear—since it condemned the US withdrawal agreement negotiated with the Taliban this year. As one US official put it back then:

“They wouldn’t want the Taliban to become too strong. They just want to make sure that they have some levers in their hands, because if the Taliban would win, God forbid, then they would lose all their leverage.”

Russia: The US has long accused the Kremlin of aiding the Taliban insurgents—mainly to help push out the Americans. In 2018, there was evidence that Moscow was supplying night-vision goggles, medium and heavy machine guns, and small arms. Last year, Washington claimed to have evidence that the Russians were offering bounties as reward for attacking US and coalition troops. Point to note: The type and quantity of arms remained limited, as one US general told Congress:

“It was in modest quantities; it was not designed to be a game-changer on the battlefield. For example, the Taliban wanted surface-to-air missiles, the Russians didn’t give it to them. So I always concluded that their support to the Taliban was calibrated in some sense.”

Point to note: But even without foreign assistance, the Taliban has easy access to a global black market—as one weapons dealer told NPR. And they have been becoming more ambitious in their shopping:

“‘Ever since the Americans agreed to withdraw from Afghanistan, the Taliban have been buying more… They're buying rockets, mortars, surface-to-air missiles,’ he says, noting that these were not their usual light weapons purchases, like automatic rifles and ammunition. He says he has knowledge that as many as 35 surface-to-air missiles, made in Russia, were purchased for the Taliban for $70,000 each.”

The reason for this bigger buy: Once the US leaves the country, the Taliban will begin to target the Afghan government’s airpower—which is the one advantage it has over the militants on the ground. 

The bottomline: Until now, the countries aiding and abetting the Taliban were able to calibrate their support to achieve their end. But with the US’ departure, all bets are off—and it is unlikely any of them will be able to rein in this Frankensteinian monster.

Reading list

NPR and NBC News offer a clear sense of the situation on the ground. This CNN analysis explains why things will get even worse once the US leaves. Axios looks at the US’ calculations in a no-win situation. BBC News and The Conversation have the best information on their funding. New York Times looks at Russia’s involvement with the Taliban. The Diplomat explains how the US is indirectly arming the Taliban. War On The Rocks has a very good analysis of Iran’s complicated relationship with the Taliban. Politico explains why China is unhappy with the rise of the Taliban.