the big story

Yet another cyclone comes our way

The TLDR: Even as Kolkata struggles to recover from the destruction wrought by Amphan, Mumbai is bracing for Nisarga—which is expected to make landfall at Alibag, 100 km south of the city. While the storm is losing some of its intensity—and likely won’t hit Mumbai directly—it may still cripple a city in the throes of a pandemic.

Tell me about Nisarga

• It is currently 250 km off the coast of Maharashtra and is expected to make landfall by this afternoon. 
• Yesterday, some meteorologists predicted that Nisarga will become a “severe cyclonic storm”: “Wind gusts as high as 120 to 130 km/hour would be possible near the landfall point, equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane in the Atlantic or East Pacific Ocean basins.” 
• Others, however, predict the storm will be less intense—with 111 km/hour wind velocity at its worst—and fall short of a hurricane classification.
• Point to note: Mumbai has not experienced severe cyclonic weather since the 19th century.

Ok, so what is the government doing?

Over 100,000 residents have been evacuated—including Covid patients and slum dwellers on the shorelines. Ten teams of the National Disaster Response Force have been deployed—three of them in Mumbai. According to district officials, temporary shelters “have been sanitised and instructions have been issued on following safe distancing.”

That sounds good…

Yes, but evacuation is a double-edged sword for residents already reeling from months of lockdown. For example, residents of Worli Koliwada—which is a containment zone—are terrified of being ‘locked in’ during the storm:

“For two months the police has not let us step out to even buy groceries, so there is no question of being able to get out of Koliwada for evacuation… If our homes get flooded, I hope the police come in to help us, because they are not letting us go out.”

OTOH, villagers in Palghar are refusing to be evacuated to shelters due to fears of catching the virus.

How bad will it be in Mumbai?

One: It depends on how tall those storm surges get. If the waves reach six feet, it will be catastrophic for the city. As one meteorologist explains:

“Storm surges pose the maximum threat during cyclones. Coastal cities like Mumbai are rendered more vulnerable, because of the topography. It is an island city and the combined effect of storm surge and heavy rains at the same time, could lead to heavy flooding, especially if there is a high tide.”

The better news: The India Meteorological Department expects the surge to stay between 1.5 to 3.5 feet. But given Mumbai’s past experience, severe flooding caused by the rains will still wreak havoc. The expected rainfall: 6-10 inches on average, and reaching 14 inches in some localities.

Two: No one knows how Mumbai’s skyscrapers will hold up during such an unprecedented storm. As a Columbia University researcher told Mumbai Mirror:

“In recent years, many new tall buildings have been built, and I don’t know to what extent they have been designed for the strong winds of a cyclone. Winds at the tops of such buildings will be stronger than at the ground.”

Also this: from BBC News: “The onset of rains in coming months is expected to bring about other illness like malaria, typhoid, gastric infection and leptospirosis.” 😱 

The bottomline: Now, we wait. And hope for the best for a city that epitomises our collective resilience.

The reading list

• NDTV has the latest on the storm in its liveblog or you can check out the live satellite map here.
• BBC has the best overview, while Scroll has the most details on how Mumbai is preparing for the storm.
• Mumbai Mirror has a must-read interview with Columbia University scientist Adam Sobel.
• A must read: Mint’s report headlined: ‘Cyclone Amphan: A grim snapshot of India's climate change future’. It kinda speaks for itself.

*Photo by George Desipris / Pexels