the big story

The Arctic is burning up!

The TLDR: Over this week, parts of Siberia recorded the highest ever temperatures—reaching 45°C, even hotter than Delhi right now! The immediate reason is a prolonged heatwave. However, scientists say that the rapidly heating polar caps indicate what lies ahead for the entire planet.

How hot did it get this year?

Very hot and—more importantly—for a prolonged period of time. It’s important to note that heat waves are a normal part of Arctic weather. However, they usually do not last long.

This year, the temperature has been nearly 6°C above average since December. In May, the average was still 10°C above average—an event “that would be likely to occur only once in 100,000 years.” As one climate scientist puts it: “It has been really bizarre to see… The pattern—it really stands out.”

So this is climate change, right?

Yes, and here’s how something abstract like ‘climate change’ leads to real shifts in weather patterns. This is how an exceptional Arctic heat wave formed:

• First, there was a warmer than usual Russian winter. So the snow on the ground melted a month early. Why this matters: snow helps reflect sunlight. OTOH, bare ground soaks up the heat.
• Next, a massive high-pressure system settled over Siberia… and did not move for months! 
• It pushed all the air downwards toward the ground, and pushed away the clouds. So imagine a column of unobstructed sunlight that doesn’t budge!
• Over weeks, the ground continues to heat up and air is absolutely still. As one scientist describes it, “The air is just kind of trapped there; it’s like an oven sitting over the area, just heating it up more and more the longer it sits there.”
• Voila: a severe and ‘immobile heat wave’ that in turn triggers other bad things like wild forest fires.

How bad is this?

Due to our carbon emissions, the entire planet is getting warmer each passing year. The Arctic, however, is heating up twice as fast. It now has heat waves in the winter—and winters are becoming warmer much faster than the summers. And warmer seasons are also becoming longer—all of which is melting all that sea ice.

A new study found that Arctic sea ice has suffered its largest decline in 41 years—and it may entirely disappear by 2050. The lead scientists say:

"The sea-ice loss at this rate, concerning all the lives on earth, can have a catastrophic impact due to rising global air temperature and slowing down of global ocean water circulation… If this trend continues, there would be no ice left in the Arctic sea by 2050, which would be dangerous for humanity and the entire environment."

And this meltdown matters because…

It creates a dangerous loop. We lose sea ice. There is less snow on the ground. Therefore, heat waves become more extreme and hot weather extends for a longer period of time. Therefore, less snow forms on the polar cap… which brings us back to where we started: the highest recorded temperatures in Siberia.

The other side effect: rising sea levels that will wipe out entire coastal cities. Four Indian cities most likely to be severely impacted: Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai and Surat.

Last point to note: Heat waves are also melting permafrost—underground Arctic soil that is frozen solid all year long. When permafrost melts, it releases greenhouse gases that will accelerate global warming—creating yet another self-inforcing loop that we want to avoid.

Reading list

National Geographic and Vox offer detailed overviews of the rising Arctic temperatures. Also read: How melting permafrost could accelerate climate change. Outlook Magazine has the report on the dramatic loss of sea ice. Mint has the report on rising sea levels.