the big story

A big-ass China buildup on the borders

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The TLDR: A new Australian report reveals a significant Chinese buildup in Ladakh—but not at the location of Monday’s violent face-off. And Beijing is showing no signs of backing off… as yet.

The Australian report: a big buildup

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute published an analysis of satellite images of the area around the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh. Both sides have built up their troops at three key points along the LAC—Lake Pangong, Galwan Valley and Hot Springs. But the ground situation is very different at each point. (Read the report here. More importantly, take a look at their interpretation of the images)

The problem of Galwan

At the actual location of the face-off—at Patrol Point 14—there are “a small number of tents and likely fewer than 50 Chinese soldiers.” This camp was supposed to be dismantled as per the original agreement, and therefore triggered the confrontation.

More importantly, China is now laying claim to Galwan—and for a sound strategic reason:

“Strategically, the PLA’s advances into the Galwan River Valley provide a superior vantage point for observing a supply route used by the Indian Army to reach its northernmost base, and the world’s most elevated airfield, Daulat Beg Oldi.”

Why this bit matters: This is a concrete example of how India’s effort to build infrastructure along its border—to enable troop movements—has triggered Chinese aggression.

Also this: According to ASPI, there are around 100 Chinese trucks close to the Galwan LAC—but their exact purpose isn’t clear. However, Indian military experts say they indicate a serious escalation: 

“Satellite images from Tuesday show scores of vehicles used to transport troops, heavy construction equipment and tents for forward deployed soldiers. Satellite imagery expert Col Vinayak Bhat (retd) says that the images indicate at least one combined arms brigade has been deployed along the river and the build up has increased over the past few days.”

Still cool at Hot Springs 

Both sides have amassed troops on either side of the border, and there have been some minor Chinese incursions. But the actual camps are at considerable distance from each other—which is also why there has been very little conflict in this area.

The bigger problem of Lake Pangong 

While the focus is on Galwan, this is where the Chinese have really muscled up—and where the disagreement on the actual LAC is the greatest. About 30 km has been claimed by the Chinese. (Scroll to Map #7 and #8 in the ASPI report)

And, according to ASPI, the Chinese buildup revealed by the images is nothing short of remarkable:

“In the past month, Chinese forces have become an overwhelming majority in the disputed areas. Significant positions have been constructed between fingers 4 and 5, including around 500 structures, fortified trenches and a new boatshed over 20 kilometres further forward than previously. More structures appear to be under construction.

 

The scale and provocative nature of these new Chinese outposts is hard to overstate: 53 different forward positions have been built, including 19 that sit exactly on the ridgeline separating Indian and Chinese patrols.”

Unnamed officials told Economic Times that Indian intelligence agencies had flagged these activities as early as February.

About those de-escalation talks...

The third round of high-level talks between military leaders has reportedly been “fruitful”—though we’re not exactly sure how. This is how Indian Express sums up the outcome: 

“The meeting Thursday, an officer said, was fruitful and the deadlock of the past three days was broken. Both sides, the officer said, agreed on certain issues and many things are expected to be made clear in the upcoming meetings. The talks, however, have not yet led to further disengagement or de-escalation at various faceoff locations on the Ladakh border.”

Huh?

The bottomline: China is at our border, and isn’t in any mood to leave. And it doesn’t look like we can make them.

Reading list

There isn’t much more to read other than the ASPI report. But here’s a quick round up of the best related reads:

• A Twitter spat between Rahul Gandhi and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar flagged a serious question: Why were the Indian soldiers unarmed, and unable to defend themselves? The Telegraph looks for answers.
• Mint explains why India’s lopsided trade balance doesn’t bode well for our ability to negotiate. 
• The Telegraph lays out the high price of a China boycott. 
• That said, the Indian Railways has canceled a fat contract with a Beijing firm citing “slow progress”—but needs the World Bank’s okay to do it. 
• Other infrastructure projects contracted out to Chinese companies are under political pressure, as well.
• India also plans to impose higher tariffs and barriers on 300 products—a number of which are made in China.
• Also: Paytm was called out on Twitter for altering its Wikipedia entry—to hide Alibaba’s big fat investment. Here is the change, and here is the alleged proof.
• Funnier note: some BJP workers burnt an effigy of Kim Jong Un—mistaking him for President Xi. 
• Union Minister Ramdas Athwale has declared war on Chinese food: “My suggestion is that restaurants and hotels that sell Chinese food should be shut down. I also request those who eat Chinese food to stop eating them, boycott them." Best take on this silliness: @Shashitharoor.
• This is a photo of the nail-studded clubs used to attack our soldiers.
• This is a lovely musical tribute to Colonel Santosh Babu.
• Last but not least, this is a Rama v Dragon illustration out of Taiwan that’s going viral.