the big story

The state of the world: A pandemic report

The TLDR: It has been three months since the WHO officially declared a global pandemic on March 11. We look at where the different nations are now, and what a new report predicts for their economic future. Short answer for India: it’s bleak, especially if we experience a second wave. Also not looking pretty: The UK’s future.

Winners and losers, right now

Axios put together a detailed analysis of the virus outbreak in different parts of the world. Here’s a quick recap.

Looking good: New Zealand is virus-free. And a number of European countries—Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Slovakia and Slovenia—have reported zero new cases. Also looking rosy: Carribean nations. 

One overlooked success: Vietnam—which has 96 million people, and recorded only 300 cases and a single death.

Living in denial: A number of nations have decided to just ignore reality and nearly no testing. And therefore have zero cases. Examples: North Korea, Libya, Tanzania—which has defeated it through prayer—and Burundi, whose President may have died of Covid.

Getting worse, quickly: The United States, of course. As for India, we reported 9,996 cases yesterday—and are now #3 in terms of the highest number of daily cases, right after the US and Brazil. We have the fifth-highest number of cases.

The other nation rising fast: Pakistan, which registered its highest one-day spike of 6,000 cases, and 105 deaths. The WHO has “strongly recommended” Islamabad adopt a “two weeks off and two weeks on” lockdown policy. It is refusing to do so, saying it is following a “holistic strategy.”

Also in bad shape: Brazil, where things are so bad that the Bolsonaro government is refusing to report its numbers. Bangladesh's capital Dhaka may have 750,000 unreported cases, according to a leading epidemiologist. The country’s official total: 74,865.

Rising from the ashes: China, of course. Also: A number of EU countries—including France, Spain and Italy—that are now reopening their borders in the midst of the worst global recession since World War II.

Another lens of wellness: risk assessment

Safest to live: The Deep Knowledge group ranked 200 countries to determine which are the safest to live in right now. Switzerland is #1—followed by Germany, Israel and Singapore. India is #56—two notches above the United States. Here’s how they explain their rankings:

“Switzerland and Germany achieve the #1 and #2 positions in this new special case study specifically because of their economy's resilience, and due to the careful ways in which they are attempting to relax lockdown and economic freezing mandates in a fact and science-based manner, without sacrificing public health and safety.”

Risk a second wave: The research group Nomura released its own report, and looked at 45 nations. The aim: to determine which are at greatest risk of a second wave now that they have ended the lockdown. It found:

“17 countries are on track with respect to reopening economies with no sign of second wave; 13 countries showing some tentative warning signs; and 15 countries in danger zone of being most at risk of a second wave.”

India falls into what Nomura calls the “danger zone,” where this can happen:

“The reopening of the economy is associated with an acceleration in the number of new daily infections, growing public fear and ceasing people mobility; in extreme cases, lockdowns would be reimposed.”

Keeping us company in the danger zone: Indonesia, Pakistan, Sweden, Singapore and Canada.

Point to note: A recent Lancet study found that—if cases continue to rise—Covid-19 may claim as many lives as the 1918 Spanish Flu, i.e. between 50-100 million. The reason: the current coronavirus has a high case fatality rate—which is the percentage of total diagnosed cases that resulted in death. The authors warn: “High caseloads stress medical systems and can lead to more deaths if health-care systems become overwhelmed.” Translation: Those rising numbers are not good news.

Looking ahead: The crystal ball says...

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is essentially a policy think-tank with 37 member countries. And this is its economic forecast:

• The pandemic has triggered the worst economic recession since World War II.
• The global economy will shrink by 6% in 2020 even if most countries manage to stem the spread. But that number will rise to 7.6% if there is a second wave later in the year.
• Average unemployment rate across its 37 member countries will be 9.2%. A second wave will raise the rate to 10%—with little recovery in 2021. 
• The worst-hit among the 37: The UK. Its GDP will drop by 11.5%—far greater than France (11.4%), Spain (11.1%), Germany (6.6%) and the US (7.3%). 
• Making everything worse for the UK: The looming prospect of a no-deal Brexit.
• Japan is poised to suffer the most among developed Asian economies—shrinking by 6% or 7.25%, based on whether it experiences that second wave.
• The Indian economy is likely to shrink by 3.7%, but in case of a double-hit, the GDP will drop by a whopping 7.3%.
• In contrast, a second wave will cause far less damage in other Asian countries—Indonesia (3.9%), China (3.7%) and South Korea (2.5%).
• The reason: “Because of India's administrative structure, the only way to contain the virus would be another 10-week lockdown, which would cause similar effects with the multitude of informal sector workers suffering the greatest economic consequences.”

The reading list

Axios has a detailed analysis of the global state of the pandemic. Mint focuses on the India angle in the OECD report. The Guardian explains why the UK will suffer the most. Mint also has the risk-assessment study on the safest countries in the world. Hindustan Times has the report on which country is at greatest risk at the end of its lockdown.