The TLDR: All available indicators point to an imminent third wave in the country—thanks to the Omicron variant. But when will it hit and how bad will it be?
Editor’s note: Be sure to check out our guide to Omicron if you need a refresher.
Researched by: Sara Varghese & Ankita Ghosh
First, the India numbers
On Monday, India recorded 35,565 new cases—and our official total Omicron tally is 1,889 to date. The total number of active cases have once again breached the 100K mark. As usual, the big cities are the worst hit. The seven-day average for Delhi—reported 4,099 new cases on Monday—has grown a whopping 832% from the week before. Mumbai with 8,082 new cases witnessed a rise of 624%.
The big surge: What’s notable about this wave is the dizzying rate of increase—which is even higher than the Delta-driven second wave. According to a Hindustan Times analysis, the seven-day national average has grown by 175% as of January 2. At the peak of the second wave, that number was 75%. Equally eye-popping: How quickly we’ve gone from dwindling numbers to a huge spike:
“Just five days ago, the weekly growth rate of average daily cases was in the negative, meaning the wave was contracting compared to preceding week. So it took just five days from a contracting case rate to one that has surpassed the pace of growth seen even during the second wave.”
The R Number: or reproductive number indicates how many people will be infected by a single person. So if it is 1, then 100 people will infect 100 others. As a wave recedes, that number keeps dropping. Anything above 1 indicates the virus is spreading to greater numbers of people. The R number for Delhi and Mumbai has already breached 2—and is currently 2.5 for Delhi. The India-wide R value is 1.22. The last time we breached 1 was in February 2021—right before the second wave.
The big spread: While the metros take up most of the attention, the pandemic is spreading across the country. On December 24, only six states saw daily growth rates exceeding 5%. By December 26, this had grown to 11 states, and by December 29, to 14 states.
When’s the peak? Many experts are unwilling to time the actual peak, but an IIT-Kanpur study published last month put the date at February 3. Point to note: It did not consider vaccination data.
So this is Omicron, right?

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