The BJP did not win a single seat in Tamil Nadu in the previous election—yet it is expending astonishing amounts of energy on the state. Why is that? We look at where the BJP is today—and explain its long game. It's about 2029, stupid.
Is the BJP really wooing Tamil Nadu?
Well, it’s certainly putting on a fine show as an ardent suitor. By mid-March this year, the Prime Minister had made six trips to Tamil Nadu. The attention has increased and become more noisy after the election dates were announced. On April 9, Modi held a grand roadshow in Chennai—as part of a two-day visit when he vigorously campaigned for BJP candidates in the state.
And each time, he was all dressed up for his date—like this interview on Thanthi TV:
The interview was carefully orchestrated to convey a profound message about Modi’s connection with Tamil Nadu. Modi entered wearing the traditional Tamil attire, veshti, which led the anchor to express his own embarrassment about his ‘Western’ attire. Modi then began the interview in Tamil before switching to Hindi, throughout insisting that his connection with Tamil Nadu was “beyond electoral considerations.”
Magic moments: Tamil Nadu has played a starring role in every important BJP event over the past year. Modi inaugurated the new Parliament with a Sengol specially prepared by jewellers Vummidi Bangaru Chetty in erstwhile Madras. He spent two days touring three temples in the state including the Sri Ranganathaswamy Temple in Tiruchirappalli—tracing the steps of Lord Rama—before consecrating the temple in Ayodhya.
A history of spurned love: Despite the BJP’s ardent efforts, Tamil Nadu has long been difficult and moody. As have its main players—DMK and AIADMK. Jayalalithaa backed the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government in 1998—only to ditch it in 1999. Two AIADMK cabinet ministers resigned and the government fell apart. And yet, Modi-ji sang her praises on his most recent visit.
On the very same visit, AIADMK MLAs promised to defect but never showed up at the grand announcement event—leaving BJP leaders red-faced on a stage in Coimbatore. The BJP has even switched sides—jumping from one Dravidian party to another—but never once come within spitting distance of the throne.
Where we are now: This time, the AIADMK walked out of the NDA alliance—after the BJP state chief made rude noises about their goddess Jayalalithaa. For the very first time, the BJP will be knocking on Tamil Nadu’s door all alone—well, mostly alone, apart from a few small parties as allies. The party is contesting 23 out of 39 seats—and fancies its chances in six. The real goal is a double-digit vote share.
The main alliances: The power configuration in Tamil Nadu now looks something like this:
- The ruling DMK party has held on to all its allies—including Congress and two left parties. And it has added Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam to its collection.
- AIADMK is pretty much alone, other than for some minor parties—and most of them are unlikely to add to its total.
- The BJP has peeled away a number of AIADMK allies—and recruited its ousted leaders such as former Chief Minister O Panneerselvam—and Sasikala’s nephew TTV Dhinakaran.
Point to note: The BJP has not always been a total zero in the state. It won four Lok Sabha seats in alliance with DMK in 1999—but it’s been all downhill from there.
Surely the BJP can’t win in Tamil Nadu…
No one is expecting air-borne pigs on election day. The BJP has its sights set on something more achievable.
One: Eat into AIADMK’s share of the electoral pie. The BJP has found great opportunity in others’ misfortunes. It is now a force to reckon with in West Bengal because of the collapse of Communist Party of India (Marxist). It hopes to repeat that pattern in Tamil Nadu. AIADMK has been in a state of disarray since the death of Jayalalithaa. Its weakness creates space for the BJP to grow.
In the coming election, the BJP's true target is its former ally—not the ruling DMK: “Arguing that the BJP was strategically weakening the AIADMK intending to claim its space and reap the anti DMK votes.. the national party’s growth in vote share will come at AIADMK’s cost.”
Two: Gather momentum for the state elections in 2026.
The stakes are quite high for the BJP, which is aiming to increase its vote share—5.75% is what the party scored in the 2022 civic body elections—to a double-digit number, finishing as the runner-up in a quarter of the 39 Lok Sabha seats and winning at least a couple of seats…
Think of this election as a dry run to warm up voters in 23 seats—and test-drive its grassroots machinery.
Three: Increase its overall vote share. The big picture goal is to maximise the number of BJP voters—by reaching out to untapped regions like the South. It’s why Amit Shah is courting goodwill across five states. Example: He met with actor-turned-politician Chiranjeevi, and his son, ‘RRR’ star, Ram Charan in Delhi.
Political analyst Raveendran Duraisamy says the PM is concentrating on constituencies where the AIADMK has an edge and is aiming to secure second place for the BJP in these. “They might also win a seat or two among these constituencies, but he is only looking at the chances of getting a higher vote share. This is also to establish that BJP as a national party is fighting another national party, the Congress, and its allies, thereby making it a BJP versus Congress and its allies fight,” he explained.
And will these grand plans work out?
The BJP most definitely has a strong strategy in place. These include:
Wooing the Vanniyars: Other Backward Castes have always given the BJP a firm foothold in any region. In Tamil Nadu too, the party is courting the Vanniyars—to rid itself of its pro-Brahmin reputation. The Vanniyars represent 12% to 15% of the electorate. Other BJP targets include powerful OBC groups such as the Gounders (5% to 7%) and Thevars (10% to 12%).
All of BJP’s electoral choices reflect this caste maths. It has allied itself with the PMK—which represents Vanniyar interests. Panneerselvam and Dhinakaran are Thevars. BJP state chief Annamalai is a Gounder—who will be running from one of their strongholds—Coimbatore. Not coincidentally, most of them are traditional AIADMK constituencies.
But, but, but: Since 1967, no candidate or party has ever won a Lok Sabha seat in Tamil Nadu without aligning themselves with one of the two Dravidian parties. To be the first—when you’re starting at zero—is a tall task.
A weak AIADMK: As we noted before, the party is at an all-time low. It has splintered into multiple factions. It is the perfect time to break the stranglehold of the two parties over the state. If not now then when etc. etc.
But, but, but: BJP’s optimism may be misplaced. State BJP president Annamalai promised, “Many big shots from dravida parties will jump ship and join the BJP ''—but they are yet to show up. The lack of rats suggests the ship may not be sinking… at least not as yet. As one AIADMK spokesperson smugly put it:
Why would anyone from our party join the BJP? Why would they want to quit a party with a strong vote bank and move to a party with a single-digit vote [share]? We have clearly said that we will not align with the BJP and no one from our party will defect to the BJP.
Excellent optics: The BJP knows how to put on a great show of strength. And no one does it better than Annamalai—whose popularity has surged in the last two years:
Observers say his grassroots campaign, his interactions with people, and his vociferous opposition to the DMK have helped the BJP grow. A survey conducted by a Tamil TV channel predicted that the BJP will overtake the AIADMK to reach the second position with a vote share of 18%.
Whether they manage such a tall number or not, people certainly believe they will—as do some analysts. That’s an achievement in itself.
But, but, but: Others are less persuaded. They point out that winning a Lok Sabha or assembly seat requires at least 35% votes. Despite his personal popularity, Annamalai is only pulling 18% in Coimbatore. One expert scoffs: “Only because Annamalai is opposing the DMK every day that it seems that the BJP is growing. We will know their actual strength after the elections.”
The bottomline: We leave you with two duelling quotes. First is social activist Viduthalai Rajendran—who explains why the BJP will never gain traction in his state:
This idea of Tamil Nadu serves as a huge threat for Modi, and that is perhaps why the BJP is desperately trying to crack this tough nut. Tamil Nadu is the only state to take on the BJP at an ideological level. In Northern states, there is not much of a difference between the BJP and the Congress… They have power struggles but not ideological struggles. Only Tamil Nadu wages an ideological war against the BJP.
The other is Print editor Shekhar Gupta—who argues the BJP is playing the long game. This over-the-top campaign in Tamil Nadu has little to do with this election:
All the sceptics, even DMK leaders when they speak on the sidelines, admit that while the BJP may not win any seats by itself, its vote percentage will go up substantially, some estimates taking it to 15-17 per cent. It may not get you even one seat this time but once you reach that range, and the momentum is with you, you are in the game in 2029.
Reading list
Shekhar Gupta’s column argues that the BJP is already planning for 2029—and Tamil Nadu is part of that roadmap. The Week and The Wire offer reasons why the BJP won’t gain traction in Tamil Nadu. NDTV and Indian Express lay out the party’s caste strategy New Indian Express points to Tamil Nadu’s history of punishing third parties. Deccan Herald offers a positive take on Annamalai.
