US Elections: Here comes the ‘red mirage’

Written by: Aarthi Ramnath, Aakriti Anand & Raghav Bikhchandani

US Elections: Here comes the ‘red mirage’

Editor’s note: We plan to wait for a decisive result before we do the Big Story analysing what it all means. Below is the state of play at the time of publishing.

The big number: It’s all about who crosses the majority mark of 270 electoral votes. Right now, it looks bad for Kamala Harris—who has only 112—compared to Trump’s 198. But Trump has only swept up safely red states—like Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming etc. Harris’ gains are also limited to deep blue territory. The swing state results are not in yet. These are Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Our Big Story on Tuesday had lots more on the swing states and voters.

Gloomy Nate: New York Times polling pundit Nate Cohn is already lending toward a Trump victory:

For the first time tonight, our estimates indicate that the race leans toward Donald Trump. He is a narrow but clear favourite to win Georgia and North Carolina. If he carries those states, Kamala Harris will probably need to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win — a real possibility, but a tall order nonetheless. We have very little data from those states, and it will be a long time until we do.

But, but, but: Early results are usually misleading—giving huge leads to one side or the other. This is called a ‘vote mirage’—which can favour Republicans (red) or Democrats (blue). It occurs for two key reasons:

One: Rural counties report results faster than urban areas—because there are fewer voters. These typically swing red. So it could look like a state will favour Trump—before the big cities report in.

Two: There are a number of different ways to vote: early voting, mail-in ballots—and at the polling booth. The order in which these totals are announced can create a mirage:

Many states and counties tend to report the results of each mode one at a time. This can cause vote mirages if one party is more likely than the other to cast its votes using a particular mode. This was the case in 2020, when Democrats voted more by mail than Republicans, and Republicans were much more likely to show up on Election Day.

Making things more muddled: many swing states—that will determine the final result—are likely to produce vote mirages for these reasons.

The big worry: is that Trump will use a ‘red mirage’ to claim victory—as he did in 2020. It laid the ground for the nightmare that followed—including the Capitol Hill riots in January, 2021:

In 2020, Trump declared himself the winner in the early morning hours after Election Day, three days before the first television networks made a call. He ultimately lost to his Democratic opponent Joe Biden. He has never accepted the result and continues to falsely assert that it was stolen from him through widespread fraud.

Point to note: Trump has already said he would like to announce a win on Election Day—and his supporters are urging him to do it early. Also this:

A majority of voters in swing states do not believe Donald Trump will accept defeat if he loses next week’s presidential election and fear that his supporters will turn to violence in an attempt to install him in power, a new poll suggests.

Reading list: NBC News has everything you need to know about vote mirages. Reuters has more on the Trump precedent. You can check out the latest results on the CNN live blog and Associated Press.

A bizarre case of ‘cyber terrorism’ in Tamil Nadu

The context: In September, a Coimbatore-based YouTube channel called Kaswa TV uploaded a video called ‘Hijab Challenge’—hosted by 21-year-old video jockey Anash Ahamed. The ‘challenge’ was as follows:

Members of Kaswa TV approached young women, introduced themselves, and asked if they would be willing to wear the hijab to see how they felt and looked in the attire. Photos and videos were taken both before and after they wore the hijab.

What happened next: On September 5, Tamil Nadu police arrested Ahamed on multiple charges, including ‘cyber terrorism’. The arrest was sparked by a complaint filed by a local right-wing activist named S Kumaresan—based on seemingly flimsy evidence:

S Kumaresan, filed a complaint alleging that the video led to a comment thread on Facebook, where some users expressed concerns that the program’s approach might incite tension between religious communities. He claimed that numerous comments were made, sparking a debate on the platform. He said the video was controversial and tempting to create enmity between two communal groups.

Yet, Ahamed was denied bail twice, and was forced to file an appeal with the Madras High Court.

What happened now: On October 30, Ahamed was finally granted bail—after 56 days behind bars. Meanwhile, the ‘Hijab Challenge’ video has been taken down.

Why this matters: Be it the government in Delhi, UP, or Tamil Nadu, the IT Act is being blatantly misused to stifle online content—even though the Supreme Court has struck down parts of it as unconstitutional. The News Minute has the best reporting on the case, but is paywalled. For free-to-read coverage, check out Bar and Bench and Maktoob Media.

Related important read: Reuters reports on a government plan to introduce “a grading system to ensure punishment matches the crime”—to crack down on judges handing out arbitrary death sentences.

AI data centres are raising bijli bills

The global race to build massive AI data centres is raising the costs of living for residents who live in the area. According to a Washington Post exclusive, the power-guzzling machines are exponentially raising their electricity bills—by as much as 20%. In the Baltimore area, annual bills are likely to increase by an average of $192. The kicker: Google pays half for its electricity than residential customers—thanks to subsidies used by local officials to attract data centres.

Why this is relevant: Reliance has big plans to set up AI data centres in a collab with Nvidia. But electricity demand in India is already set to surge by 8% this year—thanks to climate change and heatwaves. To generate more bijli, we will have to burn more and more coal. Electricity will not just be expensive—it will also be scarce—and terrible for our health. Washington Post (splainer gift link) has the must-read report. We explain more about the energy cost of AI in this Big Story by Samarth Bansal.

Sticking with AI companies: Perplexity has come out as a union scab. It has offered to bail out the New York Times—which is facing a strike by its tech workers. Of course, there was a desi CEO in the mix. Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas reached out to the New York Times honcho Arthur Gregg Sulzberger, tweeting: “Perplexity is on standby to help ensure your essential coverage is available to all through the election. DM me anytime here.” Irony alert: New York Times recently sent Perplexity a cease and desist letter for illegally scraping its content. (TechCrunch)

Chinese just say ‘no’ to shaadi

The number of new marriages recorded in 2024 in China are likely to be the lowest ever recorded. Only 4.74 million couples registered their marriages in the first three quarters of this year—a 16.6% drop from the number recorded during the same period last year. China is already facing a population crisis. Its total population has dropped for two years in a row—and its birth rate last year was the lowest since “the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949.”

Of course, the lack of enthusiasm for both babies and marriage are connected:

Chinese young adults.. are grappling with high unemployment, the rising cost of living and a lack of more robust social welfare support amid the economic slowdown. Many are postponing marriage and childbirth — and a growing number of young people even choose to eschew them entirely.

Also this: “The decline in both marriages and births is partly due to decades of policies designed to limit China’s population growth, which resulted in fewer young people of marriageable age.” The best efforts of the government to coax, cajole, or bully them into ‘settling down’ has failed so far. (CNN)

Say hello to Japan’s wooden satellite

The world’s first wooden satellite—built by Japanese scientists—was launched aboard a SpaceX rocket. It will be hauled to the International Space Station—from where it will be released into Earth’s orbit for six months. It is a tiny cube satellite made of magnolia wood—measuring 10cm—and named LignoSat (‘ligno’ is Latin for wood):

Why this matters: LignoSat is not just a whimsical experiment. It will test the theory that wood is more durable in space—without “oxygen or water there to cause it to rot or catch fire”. Wood also helps reduce space junk. Finally, LignoSat could also be used to build human habitats on the Moon and Mars. (Independent UK)

Mushrooms are smart and chatty

A new study claims that fungus possesses its own kind of unique intelligence. The lead researcher says:

You’d be surprised at just how much fungi are capable of. They have memories, they learn, and they can make decisions. Quite frankly, the differences in how they solve problems compared to humans is mind-blowing.

In fact, a fungi “brain” thinks like a human brain:

Most of a fungus is located underground in the form of a root-like system known as the mycelium. Networks of mycelium, made up of thin, thread-like strands called hyphae… Mycelial networks are known to be able to communicate information along their networks much like neurons do in a human brain.

FYI: Scientists have long known that fungi can communicate with each other. A 2022 study claimed that mushrooms are capable of exchanging up to 50 words! Popular Mechanics has loads more on this fascinating study.

what caught our eye

business & tech

A rare PR respite in a terrible 2024 for Boeing—the company has struck a deal with its factory workers, bringing their strike to an end after seven weeks.
Meta is in regulatory trouble again—this time, South Korea has hit the social media giant with a $15 million fine over collecting user data and selling it to advertisers without legal basis.
Sticking with Meta and Zuckerberg: their plan for a nuclear-powered AI data centre has been thwarted…by rare bees!
Mukesh Ambani is targeting a 2025 IPO for Jio, while a listing for Reliance’s retail arm will happen much later.
Tata’s Noel era is here—he is the business family’s first member since 2011 to serve on both the Tata Sons and Tata Trusts boards simultaneously.
The urban middle class consumer’s spending has come to a crashing halt since the last financial quarter. The reasons: decline in income growth and high food inflation.
The Conversation has a must-read how doctors in the UK have started using generative AI as part of patient care, but no one knows what safe AI use should look like.
The Hindu reports on a law student suing his institution—Jindal Global Law School (JGLS)—for failing him over alleged AI use in his exam submission.

sports & entertainment

Say hello to ‘X-Ray Recaps’, Amazon Prime Video’s new generative AI-powered content summaries.
The Weeknd’s upcoming film ‘Hurry Up Tomorrow’ has inked a global distribution deal with Lionsgate. But, but, but: his last project ‘The Idol’ was incoherent, so our expectations for this one aren’t too high.
RIP Sharda Sinha—the renowned singer, and one of Bihar’s most accomplished, has passed away at the age of 72.
Another day, another set of streaming content deletions—this time, Netflix is removing most of its interactive titles next month, except for four, including ‘Bandersnatch’.
The IPL mega-auction for 2025 will be held on November 24 and 25…in Jeddah.
India has taken the first official step in the bidding process to host the 2036 Olympics and Paralympics.
In other Olympics news, France’s boxing federation has quit the sport’s global governing body in order to retain eligibility for the 2028 Olympics, in which boxing is being run by the IOC directly.

as for the rest

The Indian government is preparing ‘detailed, multilayered’ SOPs to counter fake news. Sounds familiar? You’ll know why after checking out our Big Story on a broadcast bill draft that was later scrapped.
Sticking with the government: they also want to crack down on the unauthorised use of PAN card details by tech companies.
India’s Reserve Bank is yet to receive Rs 6,970 crore ($828 million) worth of Rs 2,000 notes, 17 months since it announced their withdrawal from circulation.
Setting aside the Allahabad High Court’s ruling that it is unconstitutional, the Supreme Court has upheld the validity of the Uttar Pradesh Madarsa Act—which provides the legal framework allowing for religious education at madarsas aside from the NCERT curriculum.
The Hindu has a must-read on how several Delhi government schemes to tackle the city’s toxic air are still pending implementation.
Sixty four Tamil people—who had been left stranded on Diego Garcia island for over three years—will finally be airlifted to the UK. The Guardian has more on their trials and tribulations.
In a surprise announcement, Benjamin Netanyahu has dismissed Defence Minister Yoav Gallant from the Israeli cabinet.
Elon Musk remains the clown gift that keeps on giving—his lawyer now says that his previously announced million dollar election lottery was actually a job offer.
Ebony Magazine’s Icon of the Year is…Kamala Harris! The Veep and presidential candidate will receive the award as part of the publication’s Power 100 event on November 17.
According to new research, our bodies use deep sleep to recover from heart attacks—because it reduces inflammation around our heart.
Babies who consume less sugar for the first 1,000 days of their lives have a lower chance of developing type 2 diabetes as adults.
Wall Street Journal (splainer gift link) reports on Western security officials’ suspicions that earlier in July, Russia plotted to send incendiary devices on US-bound planes.
Sticking with Russia, The Guardian has a good read on the ‘inexperienced, poorly trained and underfed’ North Korean troops flanking the war effort on the frontlines in Ukraine.

Five things to see

One: Moo Deng’s got competition! The world’s favourite pygmy hippo has a new rival in Haggis—a pygmy hippo born in the Edinburgh zoo last week. Her birth was announced by the zoo with a suitably cheeky dig at the rival beauty queen: “Moo Deng? Who deng?” (The Guardian)

Two: Staying with Moo Deng, the hapless child was forced to predict a winner in the US election—a la Paul the Octopus. She picked Donald Trump. We demand a recount lol! (The Week)

Three: Meesho is under fire for selling t-shirts featuring India’s best known gangsta Lawrence Bishnoi—who has been linked in killings from Mumbai to Ontario. To make things worse: it’s available in a kid’s size. People were outraged. (Mint)

Four: Snoop Dogg threw a “Fortnite gangsta party”—the first time a live concert in Time Square was also available as an in-game event for players. The coolest bit: “Each week, the game will change slightly, themed around a different artist.” Coming next: Eminem, Ice Spice, and Juice WRLD. To be fair, we were more impressed by the dazzling Times Square affair. Snoop also dropped his new song ‘Gorgeous’. Watch a clip of the performance here. (The Verge)

Five: The trailer for Shoojit Sircar’s long-anticipated ‘I Want To Talk’—starring Abhishek Bachchan—just dropped. It is supposedly a “heart-warming slice-of-life drama.” The film is slated to release on November 22. (The Hindu)