In part two of our series, we look at the two key battles in this election: Women vs young white men; Arab Americans vs the Democratic establishment.
Editor’s note: This is the second in a series of Big Stories we’re doing this week on the US election—as we all brace for the looming chaos. Part one looked at why the election is so close—despite Trump’s innumerable, umm, deficiencies.
What about ‘em swing states?
As we explained in part one, the US presidential election is all about chalking up the most electoral college votes—irrespective of the actual number of votes a candidate runs up. Electoral college votes in turn are based on the number of states you win. The bigger (in population) the better. So every election comes down to a handful of ‘swing states’—which exercise disproportionate power in choosing the next president.
Say hello to swing states: When the margin of victory falls below three percentage points in a given state, it is considered a swing state. In this election, these are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Together they account for 93 out of 538 electoral college votes (the magic number is 270). The problem for Dems: Their voters generally lean toward Republicans—but are ‘persuadable’—and hence, purple. But with increasing polarisation, there are fewer true swing states. Example: Florida pretends to be purple—but has, in fact, been blood red for the past couple of decades.
Of the seven states, the three most interesting are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. Each speaks volumes about the state of the nation today.
Michigan: Arab Americans vs the Democratic Party
For the past 13 months, Washington has supplied vast amounts of military aid to Israel—which it has used to kill 43,341 Gazans. Both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have stood on the sidelines—making polite noises about human rights—while giving Tel Aviv a free hand to bomb Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iran etc etc.
Not helping matters: The Democratic campaign has been stunningly deaf to the outrage of this loyal Democratic constituency. Here is Harris’ husband—Doug Emhoff—promising a Jewish White House residence:
That’s while Bill Clinton went to Michigan and repeated talking points—that might as well have been dictated by Tel Aviv:
So, yeah, they’re not winning any popularity contests among Arab American voters. But here’s the real question: Do pissed off Arab Americans matter?
The Michigan math: In 2016, Donald Trump won Michigan by just 10,704 votes. He lost the state to Biden by 154,188 votes in 2020. The number of Arab American voters in Michigan: over 200,000. Also: more than 100,000 Democrats refused to support Biden in the Democratic primaries earlier this year—to protest his Israel policy.
The failed Trump card: Arguments that Trump as president tried to ban Muslim immigrants have not made a whit of difference:
Hussein Dabajeh, a Lebanese American resident of Dearborn, Mich., said he had voted primarily for Democrats in the past, including for Mr. Biden in 2020. But this year, he cannot bring himself to vote for the Democratic ticket. “Would you rather your family be banned from entering this country, or would you rather your family be killed by an Israeli airstrike?” said Mr. Dabajeh, 37, who lost family in the recent violence in Lebanon.
Point to note: Although Trump is now trying to woo Arab Americans late in the day—these voters are unlikely to vote for him. Many will just stay home on Election Day. As one Michigan resident put it: “Logically, we could actually vote for Harris, given all the facts. But morally — I cannot do that. I cannot get myself to that.”
Quote to note: Some Arab Americans want Harris to lose—to underline the price of ignoring their concerns:
I will show up the next day if Harris loses, I will say: It’s because of this community, it is because of Gaza and because of the genocide, that you lost. Take the credit for your power. I’m all for it.
The big picture: There is a different kind of polarisation emerging within the Democratic party. The rift created by Gaza is likely to rip the party apart if Harris loses this election—and it’s time to assign blame.
An India aside: Trump seems to be far more popular with the Hindu American crowd in Michigan—like Ashok Baddi who identifies as a Democrat:
“We will have at least 100 people voting in a group today,” he said, quickly adding that barring for President, his other votes will all be for Democrat candidates, including a Muslim. “Trump and Modi-ji work well, and his presidency will be good for bilateral relations,” Mr. Baddi said. Mr. Baddi feels at least half of Hindus in Detroit region would be voting Mr. Trump.
Even odder bedfellows: Some Trump-supporting Muslims and Hindu Americans seem to have teamed up in Michigan—united in their disdain for ‘wokeism’.
Pennsylvania: Women voters who decide
The early voting data out of Pennsylvania shows that women and older people are breaking decisively for Harris. It has the most electoral votes—19—among the seven states. Also: Women constitute 55% of early voters across the seven swing states. Dems hope this happy trend will hold in places like Michigan—where it could neutralise the Arab American backlash.
Pennsylvania math: Biden beat Trump by 80,555 votes in 2020. The number of new voters who voted early in the state: 100,000—of which a majority are women. Reminder: Taylor Swift is a Pennsylvania girl—who has fully endorsed Kamala. So this may well be the Swiftie effect. FYI: The gender gap among early voters across the seven swing states is 1.8 million.
The abortion card: In the last days of her campaign, Harris has been doubling down on abortion rights—to cement her appeal with young women. She beats Trump amongst 18-29 year old women 67% to 28%. And her overall lead over Trump among all women is 16 points.
Where are the men? Freaked by the surge in early women voters, the Trump campaign is busy scaring young men into voting. An example of the messaging:
Early vote has been disproportionately female. If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple. If you want a vision of the future if you don't vote, imagine Kamala's voice cackling, forever. Men need to GO VOTE NOW.
Trump’s lead among men between 18 and 29: 58%—compared to Harris’ 37%.
But, but, but: There is virtually no gender gap when you look at white women of all ages. In 2016, Trump got more white women votes than Hillary Clinton—and did even better with them in 2020.
Shy, white and female? When Donald Trump unexpectedly beat Hillary Clinton in 2016, many attributed his success to the “shy voter.” The person reluctant to admit their preference for him in opinion surveys. The latest pet theory of Dems is that white women will prove to be the dark horses in this election:
When there is a conflict in the home, that can be very disquieting. And one of the things that we often hear from moderate white women is that they really hate conflict and they try to avoid it at all costs. For a lot of moderate white women, what that looks like is disconnecting from political conversation. So they will withdraw from the conversation to try to avoid the conflict.
In fact, recent campaign messaging encourages women to secretly vote for Harris: “No one gets to check it. It's not available online. Right? Your vote is your choice. You don't have to tell anyone.” There are reports of women deliberately neutralising their husband’s vote for Trump—quietly or not.
North Carolina: Undecided and unaffiliated
The traditionally red state has recently been dubbed purple—though it voted for Trump by a narrow margin in 2016 and 2020. What makes NC special: In this swing state, it’s the ‘unaffiliated’ who call the shots:
Of the 8.5 million voters in North Carolina this year, approximately 38% are registered as “unaffiliated”. That dwarfs the 32% who identify as Democrat and the 30% who say they're Republican.
The Democratic advantage: The Dems are betting on a change in demographics. Black people who left the southern state are moving back. And the greatest numbers of migrants to the state are from left-leaning California and New York. The Democrats are also confident that the most of the ‘undecided’ are now breaking their way—spurred by an escalation in nasty racist rhetoric:
Our internal data is telling us and showing us that we are winning battleground voters who have made up their minds in the last week, and we’re winning them by double digit margin... we are still seeing that people are undecided, but those folks are more open to supporting us than Trump.
Presumably this applies to North Carolina, as well.
The North Carolina math: Trump beat Biden by 74,483 votes in the state in 2020. But the number of unaffiliated voters has grown by 400,000 since that time—raising Democratic hopes. In the words of one supporter: “We remain sceptical. But optimistic.”
The big picture: US elections are often decided by the greatly desirable ‘undecided’ or ‘independent’ voters. But as Margaret Simons observes in The Guardian, they are also likely to be the most uninformed: “It is the low news consumers on which the campaigning candidates are concentrating, and on which the result of the election depends.” That’s the greater irony of this ‘swing state’ democracy.
Reading list
The Guardian offers a handy ground report from all the seven swing states. For more on the women’s vote, read BBC News—and New York Times on Trump’s effort to mobilise young men. NPR reports on the shy woman voter. Al Jazeera and Middle East Eye are best on Arab American vote. This Guardian column by Margaret Simons lays out the connection between the uninformed voter to the increasingly news averse citizen. The Hindu has a good piece on Indian Americans in Michigan—and Indian American women on abortion rights.
