Every analyst says the party has to win big in the state to outdo its 2019 performance. Now, add the political clout gained by vanquishing a regional powerhouse like Mamata. The BJP is betting everything it has on polarisation. But oddly enough, so is Mamata.
First, why Bengal matters…
It has 42 Lok Sabha seats—the third largest number behind Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. Every road to a towering two-third majority for the BJP goes through Bengal. A handful of extra seats in the South isn’t going to cut it. Conversely, anyone who rules in Bengal has serious muscle in Delhi. The Left parties played a key role in the UPA governments. Mamata, of course, is dreaming even bigger—of staking her claim to the INDIA alliance gaddi—however unlikely its victory may be.
Soaring high in 2019: In the last Lok Sabha election, the BJP won 18 seats—a dramatic jump from two seats in 2014. Thanks primarily due to the collapse of the Congress, in 2014—followed by that of the Left in 2019. It was sitting pretty on 40% of the vote share.
Crashing down in 2021: Sadly, come the Assembly elections, the party’s soaring hopes were rudely dashed. Trinamool stormed back for a third term with 213 of 294 seats—while BJP was left red-faced with 77 and 38.1% of the vote share. If it's any consolation, Congress managed a big fat zero.
Truly a swing state: The NDTV poll of polls gives Trinamool 22 out of 42 seats and a modest gain of one seat for the BJP—taking it to 19. More optimistic surveys have BJP grabbing 25 seats. As Caravan notes, the two parties are so closely matched, a small shift in vote share will have a big impact:
With both parties having secured around 40% of the vote in the 2019 general election, a uniform five-point swing from the AITC to the BJP would reduce Banerjee’s party to just 11 seats, eight of which are in Kolkata and its suburbs. (A similar swing the other way would take the AITC tally to 35.)
The BJP blueprint for victory
As elsewhere, the party is playing its two reliable cards: micro-targeting sub-castes; polarising communities.
Polarisation dharma: The BJP wins by consolidating the Hindu vote—which is exactly what it did in 2019. The BJP spanked Trinamool by 25 points among Hindus—but only managed 4% of the Muslim vote—as opposed to Trinamool’s 70%. This—interestingly—works for both sides:
Polarisation of voters on religious lines had helped the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha election and the Trinamool in the 2021 Assembly polls, edging out the Left and Congress from the field. The Trinamool is also harping on the Bengali identity by presenting itself as its custodian and portraying the BJP as an interloper and being insensitive to the interests of the State.
So it becomes a clash between the voter’s Hindu vs Bengali identity—while the Left and Congress are left on the sidelines.
Micro-targeting castes: Ritwick Shrivastav gives the example of the Jalpaiguri—where the BJP first tried to mobilise voters’ Hindu identity—to “weaken their broader Bengali affiliation.” When that didn’t work, the BJP turned to two sub-castes: Rajbanshi—who are Hindu refugees from Bangladesh; and Matua—a Dalit Hindu group with roots in Bangladesh. Given their history, it was easier to stoke their fears of illegal Muslim immigrants.
Point to note: The entire point of the citizenship law is to woo such Hindu migrant castes—at the expense of their Muslim peers. That’s why Amit Shah famously said ‘chronology samajhiye’ in 2019:
[T]he then BJP president promised to first pass the CAA—allowing the Matuas and Rajbanshis… to apply for citizenship—and then crack down on Muslim migrants through a National Register of Citizens.
The result: BJP won three seats in the Presidency division—dominated by Matuas—and swept the Jalpaiguri—where Rajbanshis make up about a third of the electorate.
The bizarre result: Both parties are feuding over the CAA—and it has little to do with Muslims:
[Mamta] Banerjee has also targeted the centre over the CAA, in an attempt to salvage the Matua and Rajbangsi vote. The pro-[Trinamool] faction of the Matua Mahasangha has warned its members of the “trap” laid in the CAA process, arguing that they would have to voluntarily declare themselves foreigners with no guarantee that their application would be approved. It has urged Matuas not to apply until a new union government is elected. Many Matuas are wary of the complicated application process, which asks for several documents that they do not necessarily possess. The BJP, meanwhile, has begun training all its district presidents on how to help people apply.
Do the math: The BJP’s fortunes have soared on the back of a carefully crafted Dalit-OBC alignment—which has worked gangbusters in the Hindi belt. In Bengal too, the party won 65% of the OBC vote—and 60% of the Adivasi vote in 2019. All it takes is a bit more Hindu consolidation to seal the deal.
The benefits of polarisation
As we noted before, both sides are eager to divvy up the electorate between them. We know why it works for the BJP, but what about Trinamool? Again, it’s all about maths.
One: Of the 133 seats that the BJP lost in 2019—it came #2 in 72. Of these, 22 were in Bengal—where it lost to TMC. The BJP really needs these seats to add to a big kitty. But, but, but: These seats are also where the Trinamool has to stop the saffron juggernaut. It can’t afford to get into complicated seat-sharing arrangements with decimated parties like Congress or the Left.
Two: The battle between the two parties is not just close in total seats, the margins in individual seats are also very narrow:
[P]olitical strategist Amitabh Tiwari said there were 22 seats in 2019 where the margin of victory was less than 10% or 1 lakh votes—and these were split evenly between the TMC and the BJP. "So there is definitely a 'kaante ki takkar' (a neck-and-neck-fight) and this has become a seat-by-seat contest," he said.
But, but, but: The BJP is defending 2X as many of these “marginal seats” as Trinamool—where it leads by less than five points. Mamata has decided that the Congress-Left alliance is likely to split the vote against Trinamool—cutting into BJP’s share. And she is willing to risk splitting the anti-Modi vote with them (since it worked out so well last time).
The bottomline: The irony is that Bengali voters are not all that concerned with safeguarding Bengali or Hindu identity. The real choice is between embracing welfare or rejecting corruption:
The opposition has plenty of issues to “defeat the corruption-ridden ruling party”, a senior BJP source told Frontline; but he also admitted that his party lacks organisational strength. “One undeniable fact is that the people are now sick of the corruption in the ruling party and badly want a change. But they are also torn between wanting to rid themselves of a party that is steeped in misdeeds and continuing to receive the welfare schemes, like Lakshmir Bhandar, of the State government. We believe they will vote for change,” said the BJP leader.
Reading list
Caravan has the best and most detailed analysis of West Bengal—but it’s behind a paywall. NDTV lays out just how close the margins are in Bengal constituencies—and how CAA is playing out in the election. Indian Express and The Wire look at the choice between embracing welfare and rejecting corruption. Indian Express has more on the role of women. ICYMI: We recommend looking at the Big Story on BJP’s path to 370.
