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Written by: Aarthi Ramnath, Aakriti Anand & Raghav Bikhchandani

The tale of two elections: Bleddy exit polls!

Let’s start with the Haryana shocker—where BJP pulled off an unexpected—and resounding victory.

First, the Haryana numbers: Of the 90 seats: 

• BJP took home 48—up eight from 2019—and way past the majority mark
• OTOH: the popular vote was closely contested—BJP’s 39.94% just about beat Congress’ 39.09%
• Congress won 37—a six seat improvement from 2019.
• Independents and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) hoovered up the remaining five 

A well-deserved winner: Congress’ Vinesh Phogat, who scored a big win—though just by 6,000 votes—after her Olympics heartbreak. She will be the MLA from Julana. 

Congress cries ‘foul’! The party claimed the BJP manipulated the Electronic Voting Machines—to engineer its victory:

The Congress alleged that some of the EVMs in these districts had 99% battery charge and all such machines were providing leads to the BJP while those with 60-70% charge were going in favour of the Congress. The machines had been lying around for some days and they would have lost some charge… indicating that it is not normal for EVMs to have an almost full charge.

Indian Express has a lengthy explanation from Election Commission sources—with nerdy details on EVM batteries—that rebuts this claim. FYI: Rahul Gandhi hasn’t said a word, and party prez Mallikarjun Kharge hedged his bets: After talking to our ground workers, getting complete information and checking the facts, a detailed response will come from the party. 

About those exit polls: They were wildly off the mark—yet again. All had predicted a comfortable Congress win. That includes Axis My India’s Pradeep Gupta, who memorably wept on live TV after getting the Lok Sabha election completely wrong. Reminder: Samarth Bansal did an excellent Big Story on polling in India—and why pollsters are so bad at their job.

Wtf happened here? The Jats. Congress bet big on the community—which is highly influential in 40 out of 90 seats. The Jats dominated Haryana politics until 2014—when BJP swept into power by consolidating the anti-Jat vote. But this time around, it seemed like Jats—enraged by the treatment of farmers and wrestlers like Vinesh Phogat—would once again carry the day.

Maybe not. Congress’ heavy focus on Jat faces (like Phogat) helped rally everyone with good reason to oppose Jat landowners—including Dalits:

The tips of the Congress campaign trident were: kisan, jawan and pehalwan. The farmers were furious over MSP, the soldiers and ex-servicemen over Agnipath and the wrestlers over the Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh story topped by Vinesh Phogat’s tragic Paris disqualification. So far, so good. Except the Congress forgot that all three add up to one caste in Haryana: Jats. The campaign became Jat-centric and helped the BJP consolidate others. 

The Print has lots more on BJP’s ‘counter-polarisation’ strategy—which also included sneakily backing independent Jat candidates to fragment the Jat vote.

Why Haryana matters: The BJP suffered a great setback this summer in the Lok Sabha elections—winning only five out of ten seats. This comeback is a huge boost ahead of Maharashtra elections—where it may also recover lost ground. Congress won 30 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats earlier this year.

Moving on to J&K: National Conference scored a big win in the first election in a decade—and five years since the abrogation of Article 370 (see our Big Story). Out of the 90 seats contested:

• Omar Abdullah-led National Conference secured 42 seats—up 27 from 2014
• BJP won 29 seats—up four from last time
• Congress took home six seats—down six from last time
• The biggest loser: Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party (PDP)—which got just three seats—down 25 from 2014
• The remaining seats were hoovered up by independents and smaller parties

An empty victory? As we noted in our Big Story, J&K is now a Union Territory—and its Assembly is toothless. Even though he owes his victory to the anti-BJP vote, CM—Omar Abdullah—was forced to strike a conciliatory note:

There are far too many problems that J&K has. J&K cannot have an antagonistic relationship with the Central government, we will have to find a way of working together. I hope the Union government will respect the mandate of the people and work together with the government of J&K to resolve the problems of people.

Still a win for BJP? Some New Delhi journos see the election as a win for the party—since it legitimises the decision to strip Kashmir’s special status:

First, all political parties, including so many former separatists—Engineer Rashid on furlough for his party—contested under the post-5 August, 2019 arrangement. Nothing better than this 63.88% voter turnout to sanctify such a big change. Second, the election was peaceful, underlining the changed popular mood and enhanced state capacity. And third, nobody would say this election wasn’t fair. That the BJP lost so resoundingly is the best evidence. This is why there’s vindication for the BJP in defeat here.

But, but, but: The Kashmiri voter may not agree—nor do many experts: 

It seemed clear that Kashmiris would rather vote for anyone, even a local party in alliance with mainstream Indian politicians, than the Hindu-first leaders who revoked their special status in 2019. Hilal Ahmad, a shopkeeper in Srinagar, the former state capital, said he found it “disheartening that the Indian public doesn’t understand” that the BJP had failed to bring the normalcy and development it had promised. Voting gave him another way to say so.

The Hindu vote bank: Indian Express also points out that the BJP swept Hindu-dominated Jammu. Congress was reduced to a single seat. The National Conference won seven—but not in the Hindu heartland of the region. 

But, but, but: The Hindus couldn’t win BJP the state—as it had hoped. The union government redrew the boundaries of districts—to give more weight to the Hindu vote. But the dream of a Hindu CM of Kashmir remains unfulfilled. That said, the stark polarisation of the electorate is a political nightmare for Abdullah. 

Reading List: Here are our recommended election reads in one place for easy access:

• Indian Express’ lengthy explanation from Election Commission sources—with nerdy details on EVM batteries—that rebuts Congress’ EVM rigging claim.
• On exit polls, Samarth Bansal did an excellent Big Story on polling in India—and why pollsters are so bad at their job.
• The Print on BJP’s ‘counter-polarisation’ strategy in Haryana—which also included sneakily backing independent Jat candidates to fragment the Jat vote.
• Check out our Big Story for more background on J&K’s first election in a decade.

Panic over Hurricane Milton

The US is still reeling from the devastating impact of Hurricane Helene. And it is now threatened by another hurricane—poised to be the most destructive to hit Florida in 100 years. As of now, 5.5 million residents have been evacuated. Milton will cross central Florida and dump 46 centimetres of rain with winds of 265 kilometres per hour,

The really big deal: is the “rapid intensification” of Hurricane Milton. The storm’s wind speed went from 80 mph (128 kmph) to 175 mph (281 kmph) from 1 pm Sunday to 1 pm Monday—most of that spike occurring in just 12 hours. In other words, it went from barely hurricane strength to a potentially lethal Category Five storm—as you can see in the map below:

And it is still growing in size:

Dangerous Hurricane Milton has started to grow in size this morning as its strength fluctuates. The bigger Milton gets, the farther from its centre its damaging winds will reach. Milton’s tropical storm-force winds extended about 80 miles from its centre most of Monday, but its wind field grew to just over 100 miles this morning.

Why this matters: ‘Rapid intensification’ makes it very difficult to prepare for a natural calamity of this magnitude. And it obviously causes far greater damage. This kind of escalation has become more common due to global warming:

Warm sea surface temperatures, particularly when they extend into deeper layers of warm water, provide the energy necessary for hurricanes to intensify. The deeper the warm water, the more energy a storm can draw upon, enhancing its strength.

Read more: Sydney Morning Herald has the most concise overview. The Conversation explains rapid intensification. The Guardian reports on why Milton spells catastrophe for Tampa Bay.

Imran Khan charged with murder

Khan has been in prison since 2023—on a variety of charges in 150 cases—ranging from corruption to leaking state secrets (See this Big Story). He has now been charged with murder—of a policeman during violent protests staged by his supporters:

Khan, who has been behind bars since 2023, is accused of inciting people to violence, they said. Police argue that Khan — who had urged his followers to rally on his behalf and demand his release from prison — had allegedly incited his supporters, leading to the killing of officer Abdul Hameed.

Khan has already been sentenced in several cases—with terms from three to 14 years. A number of these ‘convictions’ have been turned over on appeal—but these new cases help keep him in prison. (Associated Press)

Google Play Store is open!

The context: In 2020, Epic Games—maker of Fortnite—filed a lawsuit accusing Google of playing favourites. While some companies had to pay 30% of their revenue to the company, others got secret sweetheart deals—allowing them to pay less or even nothing at all. Epic won that case in December 2023 and has since launched its own app store—on both Apple and Android phones.  

What happened now: While the case was decided by the jury in 2023, the judge has now issued the final ruling—which determines the actual impact of the verdict. It is sweeping:

[For three years] Google will have to distribute rival third-party app stores within Google Play, and it must give rival third-party app stores access to the full catalogue of Google Play apps, unless developers opt out individually.

The company also has to stop forcing apps to use its billing system. Developers can now offer options for payment and download—outside the Play Store. Why this hurts Google: 

The decision could lead to developers getting a bigger share of the market, as both Google and Apple’s app stores typically take between 15% and 30% of total sales for high-grossing apps. The new restrictions on Google Play may allow developers to keep more revenue by bypassing Google’s rules or fees.

The Verge has a lengthy explanation of all the changes—which may entirely transform the Android app marketplace.

The Guardian brand is in danger

The deal: On September 17, The Guardian announced that they were in “exclusive negotiations” with Tortoise Media to sell the Observer—the world’s oldest Sunday newspaper that dates back to 1791. It was bought by The Guardian in 1993—and is now being sold for a paltry £25 million ($32.7 million) over a five-year period. 

What’s important to know: The Guardian is funded by a very well-endowed trust—much like an Ivy League uni. Funded by donations, it is meant to keep the newspaper independent and protected from market pressure.

What happened now: The Observer and Guardian journalists are going on strike to protest the sale. Their primary argument: The Scott Trust’s pledge to “secure the financial and editorial independence of the Guardian in perpetuity… remaining faithful to its liberal tradition”—extends to the Observer. The two publications share pretty much everything—reporters, websites, etc. Also: Every Observer article carries the same call for reader donations for The Guardian—suggesting the two are as good as one:

Mention was also made of The Guardian’s “Not For Sale” marketing campaign last year which emphasised the title’s editorial independence. Some staff at the meeting said it was ironic that in fact The Observer did seem to be for sale and apparently at a nominal price.

Jumping in the fray: More than 70 actors, authors, and other prominent celebs—who point out the obvious in an open letter:  

The proposal also envisages moving [the Observer] from a resilient and well-funded newspaper publisher to a small, loss-making digital startup whose funding for the takeover would in all likelihood come from private equity.

FYI: The size of the Scott Trust endowment: £1.275 billion ($1.668 billion). (Financial Times, splainer gift link, PressGazette)

what caught our eye

business & tech

• Coming soon: Rapido’s airport cab service to rival Ola, Uber, and Blusmart.
• If you’re in Bengaluru, say hello to Uber Pets, the ride-sharing app’s new reserve-only service that allows you to pre-book rides with your pets.
• The latest edition of the Fairworks India Ratings cap offers a searing indictment of Indian companies on labour rights—don’t expect recognition of unions anytime soon.
• A pair of AI pioneers—including ‘godfather’ Geoffrey Hinton—have won the Nobel Prize in Physics for their work in machine learning, which they’d started in the 1980s. 
• Social media users in the EU can file their complaints with an independent body called Appeals Centre Europe—which will hear any disputes over free speech. 

sports & entertainment 

• Say hello to Amazon MX Player—a new ad-supported streaming service that merges Amazon miniTV and MX Player. 
• The richest female musician in the world is…Taylor Swift, who has recently overtaken Rihanna with a net worth of $1.6 billion.
• Cissy Houston—Grammy Award-winning vocalist and mother of iconic singer Whitney—has passed away aged 91. 
• Former Spain and Barcelona midfielder Andres Iniesta has retired from men’s professional football. His greatest moment: scoring the only goal in the 2010 World Cup final.

as for the rest

• Cardamom farmers in Kerala’s Idukki are grappling with… snail infestations. The Hindu has more. 
• There’s growing discontent within India about the government’s food policy, with rotting rice found in abundance in major grain exporter, Chhattisgarh. 
• According to a new report, the global pledge to cut back on deforestation has been a massive failure—due to the demand for beef, soy, palm oil and nickel.
• Since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the US has spent a whopping $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel. Go figure.
• In his new book ‘War’, stalwart journalist Bob Woodward makes new allegations of Donald Trump’s ties to Vladimir Putin—from sending secret Covid tests to “seven phone calls” made since Trump left the White House.  
• The Bihar government has gotten the greenlight from the central government to establish a tiger reserve at the Kaimur wildlife sanctuary. 
• An update on the RG Kar rape and murder case (see our Big Story)—senior doctors and faculty of the hospital have submitted a mass resignation letter to the institution, expressing concern about six of their colleagues who have embarked on a hunger strike.
• A prominent Gujarat journalist with The Hindu—Mahesh Langa—has been arrested in a ‘GST scam’ case linked to his brother. Among his last stories pre-arrest: the struggles of Surat’s diamond industry due to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
• A new report looked at 665 universities across the world—and found that academic freedom in India now ranks as “completely restricted.”   
• Chip off the old block? France has deported Osama Bin Laden’s son Omar from Normandy village over accusations of glorifying terrorism on social media. 
• Salman Rushdie will soon publish his first work of fiction since the 2022 stabbing incident which cost him an eye. 

good reads

• Adio Dinika in Noema Magazine uses a trio of case studies from Nairobi to explore the human cost of our AI-driven future. 
• Art historian Anne Wallentine in Smithsonian Magazine reports on a new exhibition in a California art museum showing how past artists, writers and scientists documented climate change. 
• New Lines Magazine brings this investigative story from Botswana, where the diamond industry is highly lucrative but women workers pay a heavy price.
• The Conversation explores what to do when medicines don’t work due to drug resistance—the solution involves eliminating neglected tropical diseases (NTDs).

Four Navratri things to see

One: We start with this Pujo pandal in Kolkata—which recreates its underwater metro line. The look and feel is 100% authentic—including the “metro’s undulating movement, interior air conditioning and typical metro rail announcements.” (The Hindu)

Two: We aren’t sure about the source of this image of Guru Gobind Singh worshipping Durga—but his poetry contained a number of references to the goddess—and are included “ in the Dasam Granth, the Book of the Tenth Master (i.e., of Guru Gobind Singh).” In any case, the syncretic thought is lovely—and in keeping with the festival spirit.

Three: Underlining India’s great tradition of syncretism, here is MF Husain’s Durga.

The lead image, btw, is Husain’s painting of Hanuman called ‘Lanka Dahan’, as he leaps across the ocean after setting fire to Ravana’s Lanka. 

Four: This stunning 18th century wall hanging depicting the battle between Rama and Ravana is a must-see—but our template doesn’t do it justice. See it in its full glory over at the Met.

feel good place

One: Moo Deng vs food. Also: her mom lol! 

Two: The third wheel from hell.

Three: Legend. Patrick Swayze had nothing on this guy.

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