When are the Gujarat elections?

The state election is scheduled for the end of this year. But there are growing rumours that the ruling BJP party will call an early election this summer—to beat the onset of monsoon in mid-June. Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal recently predicted the government will “dissolve the assembly in a week or 10 days.”

The election: There are 182 assembly seats—of which 111 are held by the BJP, while Congress has 64. The BJP has won six terms in succession—including 2001 to 2014 when then-CM Narendra Modi ruled the roost. 

The wildcard: The AAP—which set up shop in the state in 2013—and performed abysmally in the 2017 elections. It contested 29 of the 182 Assembly seats—and received fewer votes than even the NOTA (none of the above) option in many constituencies. But the party has shown greater resolve and organisation since 2020. It won 27 seats in the local polls in Surat, replacing the Congress to become the main opposition party.

Also in the ring: Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM).

But isn’t Gujarat a BJP stronghold?

As the hometown of the PM, Gujarat is not just another state for the BJP. And the party isn’t content to just win—or even hold on to power as it did in Uttar Pradesh—though with fewer seats. A Gujarat victory has to be overwhelming since every vote here is a vote for Modi. 

The Modi showcase: Jignesh Mevani’s arrest has to be viewed in the context of the BJP’s all-out push to secure the state. Just a day after its triumph in Uttar Pradesh, the party staged a huge roadshow in Ahmedabad—with PM Modi as the star attraction. 

Since then, the PM has made repeated trips to the state—often in the guise of hosting foreign leaders—who were roped in to play their part in the PR spectacle. Boris Johnson was hauled out for the Gujarat tour of duty. In fact, he landed in Ahmedabad not Delhi for his two-day trip. Mauritius Prime Minister Pravind Kumar Jugnauth kicked off his recent tour in Rajkot.

Point to note: To be fair, this isn’t just an election-time stunt. Since 2018, Modi has hosted at least 18 heads of state/government in Gujarat—including US President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Mumbai, OTOH, has almost disappeared from the diplomatic itinerary.

The BJP state of play: Since Modi’s departure for Delhi in 2014, the government has been helmed by a series of weak chief ministers—first Anandiben, followed by Vijay Rupani. He and his entire cabinet was unceremoniously discarded for botched handling of the pandemic—and replaced by Bhupendra Patel in September 2021. The other benefit of a Patel as CM: the powerful community accounts for 12% of the electorate.

Point to note: The Congress put in a strong showing in the 2017 elections—increasing its seat tally to 77-the highest since 1985. And the BJP has no intention of letting it gain any more ground.

So where does Mevani fit in?

The troika: The Congress’ hopes in Gujarat are pinned on three young leaders: Anant Patel, Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mevani. The first two are party members—while Mevani for now remains an independent MLA aligned with Congress. Each has the support of a key marginalised community. Anant Patel is a tribal leader, Mevani is a Dalit activist, while Hardik Patel made his politcal career leading a Patidar campaign for reservations—organising over 100 rallies—which put an end to Anandiben’s political career. Together, their communities account for a third of the electorate—and therefore critical to a decent Congress showing.

More on Mevani: A former lawyer and civil rights activist—who worked with the Gujarat riot victims—Mevani has long been defined by his stridently anti-BJP politics. But he came into the spotlight in 2016, when four Dalits were brutally flogged by gau rakshak goons for skinning a dead cow. Mevani launched a 15,000-strong, 370-km yatra that sealed his stature as the most prominent Dalit leader in the state. He won his seat—reserved for scheduled caste candidates—in 2017, and openly declared his support for Congress in 2021.

The arrests: Mevani was first arrested on April 20 for a tweet that referred to Modi—“who considers Godse as his god.” He was hauled to Assam on the basis of an FIR filed by a BJP leader—released on bail—and immediately re-arrested—this time for assaulting a policewoman while in custody. The allegation was so ludicrous that the judge who awarded him bail declared:

“No sane person will ever try to outrage the modesty of a lady police officer in presence of two male police officials and there is nothing in the record to hold that the accused Shri Jignesh Mevani is an insane person… the instant case is manufactured for the purpose of keeping the accused Shri Jignesh Mevani in detention for a longer period, abusing of the process of the court and the law.”

Why Mevani matters: Of the three young leaders, Mevani has proved the most troublesome for the BJP. And here’s why:

One: Hardik Patel is already unhappy within the Congress party—where he has been sidelined. Even though he’s been appointed working president of the state arm, Patel has complained: “My position in the party is that of a newly married groom who has been made to undergo nasbandi (vasectomy).” And he’s been recently taking a softer line on the BJP. Asked about his father’s death anniversary, Patel said: “My father had relations with all the parties. Such occasions are times when you call people and I have invited all.”

Two: An alliance of a powerful Dalit leader with Congress isn’t just a Gujarat problem. As Hardik Patel explained: “The idea was to strengthen the party. As an Independent legislator, he cannot do as much as he can with the backing of a party…he can become the Congress’s national Dalit face.” That’s hardly good news for the BJP which has positioned Modi as the champion of Dalits on the national stage.

Three: Mevani’s devout Ambedkarite/Left politics puts him out of reach of both the BJP and AAP. The BJP has already taken in the state’s key OBC leader Alpesh Thakor—and an unhappy Patel may well fly the coop to AAP. But Mevani is another matter:

“From the beginning, Hardik and Alpesh have not been much of a concern for the party. Ideologically, the two are not very distant from our party’s principles. But, because of his Leftist thought, Mevani symbolises a culture alien to Gujarati society politically. Our party is worried about the seeds of this ideology, although Mevani is almost part of the Congress now.”

So will Mevani/Congress dent the BJP?

That’s a bridge too far—given that Congress has made a hash of handling Hardik Patel. And the BJP doesn’t face the same level of discontent as it did back in 2017. But more importantly, the Congress’ greatest problem is not the BJP but new entrants like AAP and AIMIM:

“Although it remains to be seen whether AAP manages to convert the vote share into seats, but it will damage the Congress. Same is the case with AIMIM that has already registered its presence in the local body polls, in the Muslim dominated pockets like Modasa and Godhra besides urban areas like Dani Limda and Jamalpur in Ahmedabad.”

AAP has been targeting many of the same communities that Congress wants to tap—example, the Patidars. So there’s a very real danger that it will lose ground—rather than build on its 2017 showing. 

Point to note: Coming off a big victory in Punjab, that’s precisely AAP’s big plan—and not just in Gujarat:

“It’s the non-BJP votes—around 62% in the 2019 Lok Sabha election—that Kejriwal will seek out. These voters must be growing disillusioned with the repeated failures of Opposition leaders to dislodge the BJP from power—the Centre and in many states, say Gujarat. With two states/UTs under his belt and the Delhi model to showcase, Kejriwal may give them better hopes. That’s what makes the AAP a bigger challenger to the Congress.”

Quote to note: This is also why Congress appears more furious at AAP than even the BJP. Its spokesperson raged:

“The BJP has now realised that their ‘polarisation on basis of religion’ card has dried up and now they need another strategy to counter the issues affecting Gujarat. Hence, they have now introduced parties such as the AAP and the AIMIM for division of votes. We saw its example in the recently held Gandhinagar local body polls. So, Kejriwal has to answer to all Gujaratis—whether he wishes to challenge the corrupt regime of the BJP or further pave their way to electoral success by dividing the votes?”

The bottomline: There is no doubt that the BJP will hold on to its roost in Gujarat. And it is likely that Congress will once again be weakened by AAP—which can only make the BJP happy. But the jittery antics vis-a-vis Mevani reveal a government unable to countenance a leader fiercely opposed to its ideology and politics. Perhaps that should offer a clue to its other opponents.

Reading list

Indian Express (paywall) and The Hindu have good profiles of Jignesh Mevani. Also worth your time: The Print on the Gujarat troika in Congress’ corner. News9 rips apart the Congress’ inability to nurture young leaders—specifically Hardik Patel. Indian Express looks at AAP’s long game in Gujarat. The Citizen has more on why the BJP is headed for an easy win.