Farm proposal gets a big thumbs down
The TLDR: The government proposed, and the farmers disposed. Their answer: a big fat no to the Centre’s first and most significant concession—to suspend the farm laws for 18 months. This means the head-on collision over the proposed tractor rally on Republic Day remains a real possibility. An unexpected wrinkle: some experts say that suspending the farm laws may not be feasible under constitutional procedure.
A quick recap
- The farmers have been parked on the Delhi border since November—protesting three new farm laws (explained at length here).
- When repeated talks failed to resolve the issue, the Supreme Court stepped in to stay the laws—and set up a committee. The farmers refused to participate, and continued talking to the government. We explained the SC intervention here.
- The latest round produced a significant concession from the government side: An 18 month suspension of the farm laws while a joint committee—that includes union leaders—tries to craft a compromise.
- That proposal has now been rejected, and we’re back to square one.
Just a point-blank no?
The unions took the proposal seriously—and held three rounds of internal discussions over 24 hours. At a meeting of 32 unions in Punjab, at least a dozen were in favour of accepting the government’s proposal—Times of India puts the number precisely at 15. But when all 500 groups met to make the final call, they decided to say no—after five tumultuous hours.
Point to note: The unions considered making a counter-offer—specifically a four-five year suspension instead of the offered 18 months. But the idea did not get widespread support.
Why did the farmers say no?
For a number of reasons, some of which are strategic.
One: Agreeing to a suspension carries the great risk that the government may change its mind—and un-suspend the laws just as easily. As one union leader explained:
“We discussed many aspects. What if the government is asked to increase the duration of the stay on these laws from 1.5 years to a minimum 4 years—so that they cannot implement them during this term? What if this government returns to power again? These laws will be hanging like a sword… It will not be so easy to start another farmer movement such as this soon.”
Two: Having stood their ground for months—and at great cost—giving in on their core demands will feel like betrayal. That’s why the unions’ statement underlined the deaths on the border—i.e. the “sacrifice” of “143 farmers who have been martyred in this movement.”
Three: Much of the above worry has to do with a deep-rooted lack of trust—which may be the greatest obstacle to any compromise. Another union leader told The Hindu:
“The farmers have decided that this offer to keep the laws pending for 18 months is just a ruse and a ploy. They are basically telling us, ‘you go away from here, stop this agitation.’”
Therefore, farmers also view the confrontation as a zero-sum game—any advantage to the government will be necessarily gained at the expense of the farmers, and vice versa. The same leader says:
“If the opponent believes in their own position, they would not have given up, just as the farmers are not giving up... The more the government gives in, the stronger will be our belief.”
Four: And that points to an unpalatable fact for the government—which is that the farmers right now are at an advantage (the size of which is, of course, debatable).
Why do they have an advantage?
The movement is gathering momentum across the country. And one big reason is not the laws as such—but the related demand for a nationwide guaranteed minimum support price, which will apply to all buyers, government or private.
The MSP factor: As we’ve explained earlier, MSP is the price guaranteed by the government for certain crops like wheat and rice. But only farmers in Punjab and Haryana benefit from this policy. Most other farmers do not benefit from this policy. A recent data analysis showed that 68% of the crops were sold below MSP—which means most farmers barely covered their costs.
In this context, agreeing to a suspension without any concession on MSP is seen as dangerous:
“Repeal of the three laws and a legally guaranteed MSP have been the farmers’ two main demands. It was the second demand that took the movement beyond Punjab and Haryana...
‘What if we agree to the proposal and a large section of farmers do not? That would divide and weaken this movement, and we will not be able to mobilise people on this scale for a long time in that eventuality,’ a union leader said.”
And why is the government bending?
For a number of reasons:
Timing: The farmers are determined to enter Delhi, and hold a tractor rally on the Outer Ring Road. The government is in the unenviable position of either looking like a brute—if the police uses force to keep them out. Or opening the floodgates which carries the risk that the farmers will not leave—and set up camp within the capital. Not helping their cause: The Supreme Court, which has refused to intervene to ban the rally.
The other ‘timing’ issue: The government in December cancelled the winter session of Parliament due to Covid—and to avoid pitched battles with a united Opposition in Parliament. But it no longer has that luxury since the union budget has to be passed on February 1—and it doesn’t want to give the other parties reason to create havoc.
Botched process: The laws were rammed through Parliament using BJP’s brute majority—over protests of both opposition parties and allies, and without any public consultation. As a result, the government now looks unreasonable and undemocratic:
Within the government however, there is a realisation that it had lost the communications game early in the day. “During the COVID-19 policy rejig, the ‘aapada main avasar’ [opportunities in crisis] set of changes in laws governing labour, small industry, and agriculture were announced and while a lot of consultation on these had taken place over the years, the announcements were sudden,” said a government official.
The RSS factor: The BJP’s “ideological mothership” has expressed its disapproval of the stalemate, and the government’s inability to resolve it. In an interview, a senior functionary made it clear: “We just want the agitation (to) end quickly now.” More importantly, he did not offer a full-throated defence of the government:
“Democracy provides an opportunity to both sides. I consider both sides right (in) their place… So it is important to find that point where the two sides can agree and the agitation can end. Any agitation running for long is not beneficial. No one should have a problem with an agitation taking place. But a middle ground must be found.”
What’s the way out?
The government is very clear that it will not repeal the laws. But can it suspend them instead? Experts who spoke to Indian Express think not. And here’s why:
The notification: Laws are passed by Parliament and considered the will of the people. The government then sends the laws on to be “notified” in the official gazette (entered into the official law books) after it is signed off by the President. The farm laws were notified on September 27.
The big hitch: Once notified, a law can only be repealed by sending it back to Parliament: there is no vocabulary in the Constitution or Parliamentary procedure to suspend a law. According to a former Secretary General of the Lok Sabha,
“In my view, the law cannot be put in abeyance by the government. Once a law is passed by Parliament…the government is only the implementing authority and it cannot stifle the law.”
One possible solution: The Supreme Court is the only institution that can suspend a law—as it already has with the farm laws. But it can only do so on constitutional grounds—which have not been offered, complicating matters even further.
The other solution: Take the laws back to Parliament and either amend or repeal them.
The bottomline: Both sides have dug themselves in deep. We’ll now have to wait for Republic Day to see who blinks next.
Reading List
Indian Express and The Telegraph have the most detailed reporting on the farmers’ views. The Hindu explains why the government is more willing to negotiate. Also in The Hindu: An excellent set of charts that lay out the key issues raised by farm laws. Also in Indian Express: why suspending the laws may not be possible. We explained the MSP issue at length here.