“It looks like nobody wanted an election and no one got what they wanted,” said a Canadian political pundit after Trudeau’s Liberal Party returned to power—in a snap poll called two years earlier than scheduled. Here’s a quick look at what may be the most pointless and expensive election in Canadian history.
Researched by: Sara Varghese and Samreen Faridi
It is fairly rare for one party to win a majority (170 seats) in the Parliament, and here’s why:
“Canada’s entrenched political map currently makes it difficult for parties to break out of their own strongholds and forge a majority. Liberals do well in the eastern maritime provinces and in the populous and affluent suburbs in Ontario. Quebec is dominated by a francophone party. The left-leaning New Democrats are strong in Manitoba and laid-back British Columbia. And the Conservatives dominate in the rural and oil rich plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan.”
Key point to note: No, they do not have coalition governments in Canada. Typically, the party with the most seats forms the government with the outside support of one or two other smaller parties.
Before this election, his Liberal party held 157 seats in the Parliament—and was ruling with the support of the New Democrats. But in August—surprising everyone, including his own party leaders—he called for a snap poll, two years earlier than scheduled! FYI: Canadian elections are held every four years. So Trudeau was just midway through his current term.
The pandemic effect: Trudeau’s popularity poll numbers were soaring all year thanks mainly due to his handling of the pandemic. Canada has had one of the most successful vaccine campaigns of any large country, with more than 60% now fully vaccinated. And the government’s Covid relief programs have been the most generous in the world. Therefore, 50% of Canadians believe that Trudeau did a great job managing the crisis.
Seizing the day: The PM therefore decided there was no time like the present to make a big play to secure himself that ever-elusive majority—though Trudeau never quite put it that way. It was “a political sweet spot wedged between a successful vaccination halo and before [pandemic] stimulus checks to Canadians get cut off.”
The pitch: Announcing the snap poll, Trudeau declared, “Canadians need to choose how we finish the fight against Covid-19.” But most of his grand statements did little to explain why such an early election was necessary:
“Everyone understands that we are really at a pivotal moment in the history of our country… This is a moment where Canadians can and should be able to weigh in on what we’re going through and on how we’re going to build a society that is stronger and better.”
Point to note: Trudeau’s government has been embroiled in a number of scandals—which may point to the real motive for this play for a clear majority: “More problematic for Trudeau has been control that the opposition parties have had over parliamentary committees, which has allowed them to investigate the governing Liberals and prime minister over ethics.”
But as it turned out, Trudeau’s decision to hold an unnecessary election made him instantly unpopular. Opposition leaders like New Democratic party head Jagmeet Singh were furious:
“If Justin Trudeau is listening to people and their concerns and their worries he would not be holding a selfish summer election… Instead, he would be heeding our call and the call of Canadians to keep on delivering the help that people need.”
And the election itself became one of the most fiercely debated issues during the 36-day campaign.
The big slide: The Liberals quickly lost ground in opinion polls—and were soon in a statistical tie with their main rival, the Conservative party. Most damagingly, Trudeau’s personal appeal lost a great deal of its sheen. Surveys indicated a significant drop in popularity among voters of every age and gender, including women who have been his staunch supporters. And pollsters began to ask: “Are Justin Trudeau's days of enjoying unmatched political rock god status well and truly over?"
The other pandemic effect: For a Prime Minister lauded for his Covid policies, the decision to hold an election in the midst of anxieties about the Delta variant was seen as selfish and foolhardy. And it didn’t help that Trudeau couldn’t offer a convincing argument as to why it was necessary: “They’ve been struggling with answering that question the whole campaign. And that’s part of why they’re having trouble getting the message across.” The result: “grumpy and frustrated” voters who resented having to focus on an election when their lives were just about getting back to normal.
About those women: In 2015, Trudeau made headlines for appointing Canada’s first gender-balanced cabinet. Many of those women ministers have left his government—and are now his sharpest critics. His former Justice minister bluntly told him: “I wish that I had never met you.” While another said of Trudeau: “He was a lot of sizzle and no steak. That was my personal observation.” So yeah, he’s not so popular with the ladies any more.
The initial results are now in. And none of the parties in the fray have anything to celebrate. The numbers mark a return to status quo—but at an eye-watering cost of $600 million in Canadian dollars. The final numbers are still pending, but here’s where we are:
Saved by the ultra-right? The Conservative party candidate Erin O’Toole took away Trudeau’s biggest card—the rightwing bogeyman—by moving his party to the centre. He publicly declared himself a supporter of abortion and LGBTQ rights. And he unveiled an ambitious climate change plan. Initially, the move seemed to work and Conservative support jumped from 29% to 34% by early September.
But O’Toole also created an opportunity for Maxime Bernier—the leader of the alt-right People’s Party of Canada. Bernier—who calls himself Mad Max and has Donald Trump-like politics—splintered the rightwing vote. Over the weeks, support for the People’s Party doubled and destroyed O’Toole’s advantage: “[I]nitial results suggest that if every People’s Party voter had cast a ballot for the Conservative Party instead, the Conservatives would have won 145 seats to the Liberals 141.”
Irony alert: While the ultra right party did not win a single seat, it managed to return Trudeau’s government to power.
An empty ‘victory’: Political analysts are unanimous that while Trudeau may have ‘won’ the election, he has lost a great deal more: “His job is secure, but I still think he comes out diminished in the end from this.” As CNN points out:
“The election exposed resentment over months of Covid-19 deprivations, and revived a critique that Trudeau is an entitled opportunist. His disappointing showing may have further damaged the goodwill he needs to navigate the pandemic end-game and govern effectively, and will spark fresh speculation about his long-term future.”
And a subdued Trudeau seemed to acknowledge testing the goodwill of Canadians in his victory speech:
“You don’t want us to talk about politics or elections. You want us to focus on the job that we need to do for you. I hear you when you say that you just want to get back to the things you love, not worry about this pandemic or about the election.”
The bottomline: Trudeau has been taunted, abused and even pelted with stones on the campaign trail. Even he admitted, “I’ve never seen this intensity of anger on the campaign trail, or in Canada.” And with this election, he may have earned a great part of it. His rival O’Toole said of him:
“Every Canadian has met a Justin Trudeau in their lives: privileged, entitled, and always looking out for number one. He was looking out for number one when he called this expensive and unnecessary election in the middle of a pandemic.”
The problem for Trudeau is that most Canadians now agree with O’Toole.
CNN and New York Times offer a broad analysis of the election results. Also in the New York Times: Why the decision to call an election hurt Trudeau—while BBC News reports on the actual slide in his popularity. Politico looks at whether the results support or undermine O’Toole’s effort to move the Conservatives to the centre. The Washington Post has an excellent analysis of why this is a win for the alt-right. Omer Aziz in The Atlantic explains why he voted for Trudeau like most liberals even though he doesn’t like him at all. Reuters explains how a minority government will function. This older Caravan (paywall) profile of Jagmeet Singh is a very good read.
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