The TLDR: As the oxygen crisis continued, the High Courts took aim at the government—prompting the Supreme Court to wade in. Meanwhile, the government took urgent steps, while trying to duck the blame.  

First, the numbers 

We reported 332,348 new cases—the highest ever daily tally in the world—and 2,247 deaths. India now accounts for one in every three cases reported every day. Our numbers are growing four times faster than the United States. Among the dead: CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury’s 34-year old son, Ashish. Deaths have spiralled 128% in the past two weeks.

The unofficial count: is likely to be far higher. We are testing at an unprecedented rate—1.65 million tests were conducted on April 21, the highest-ever in a single day. And yet we are only testing roughly 1 test per 1000 citizens—which is low compared to the US (2.79), UK (13.81) and other countries. Add to that the fact that labs are overwhelmed, and in places like Uttar Pradesh, some have been ordered to not report positive results. 

Where we’re headed: According to experts, if we continue to grow at the same clip, we could average 500,000 cases a day by next month—a figure that no other country has ever matched. Some models say the second wave will peak between May 11 and 15 with anywhere between 3.3-3.5 million total ‘active’ infections. Maharashtra and Chattisgarh may have already peaked, while Delhi, Haryana and Rajasthan may peak by the end of the month.

Point to note: A member of the government’s Covid task force told The Telegraph:

“There were indications a big wave could hit us, but that knowledge was not translated into more preparedness or strong public warnings… We can now ask among ourselves: who’s responsible? Is it the health ministry, is it the Indian Council of Medical Research, is it the government? All I’d say is: collectively we have failed.” 

But the Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan said at a press conference:

“Today is not the time to go into why did we miss, or did we miss, did we prepare? Today is the time to jointly face the pandemic… Once we have faced it and emerged out of it successfully, then probably with the advantage of hindsight we would be able to deliberate on this.” 

A silver lining: Our netas—including PM Modi and Mamata Banerjee—have finally cancelled their election rallies. 

At the hospitals…

A good summary: of where we are right now as a nation is this gut-wrenching (but very necessary) BBC News video of the heartbreak playing out in hospitals everywhere. We suggest you don’t look away.

The oxygen shortage: In four states—Delhi, UP, Gujarat and Haryana—demand continues to outstrip supply. The demand has increased by 18% over the last six days across 12 states—which account for 83% of cases in the country. The shortfall is the most severe in Delhi at minus-220 metric tonnes per day. Karnataka and Rajasthan are barely making ends meet.

Meanwhile in Delhi: The capital is the worst-hit and is in the midst of a “macabre crisis of oxygen shortage, overstretched resources, and overworked healthcare workers.” (Indian Express has that story). Hospitals continued to issue red alerts about dwindling supplies, and a many—like this Lifeline hospital—were forced to tell their patients to make other arrangements:

The government: has issued strict orders to ensure that interstate fights over oxygen do not disrupt supply chains (explained here). Also this:

“No restrictions can be imposed on ‘oxygen manufacturers and suppliers to limit the oxygen supplies only to the hospitals of the state/UT in which they are located’, it said, while holding DMs, SSPs and SPs ‘personally liable’ for implementation.”

The government is also working toward importing oxygen—though apparently not from China, despite Beijing’s offer.

Point to note: An Indian Express investigation shows that the government's own Covid committees repeatedly recommended securing and ramping up oxygen supplies last year—and then ignored their own advice.

In the Covid hall of shame:

• Black marketeers who are selling cylinders for up to Rs 35,000. 
• Next: the 300 passengers who fled from the covid testing facility near Silchar airport in Assam. Of the 690 people who landed in Silchar, only 189 underwent Covid tests, and six of them tested positive. 
• Finally, Union minister Prahlad Patel, who threatened to slap a man complaining that he can’t find oxygen for a sick relative. NDTV has the story. Charming video below:
  

Speaking of vaccines…

The bad news: The daily vaccination rate has declined over the past week. Between April 8-14, India administered an average of 3.47 million doses every day. However, as on April 21, the number of average daily doses has fallen to 2.54 million. Point to note: A daily rate of over 6.8 million doses is necessary to vaccinate all adults in India by the end of 2021. 

Adding to the worry: People over the age of 18 will be able to register for a vaccination starting April 28. However, where are the vaccines to inoculate them? According to Serum Institute, it has supplied 110 million doses of Covishield—and will soon deliver another 100 million. Thirty million doses of Covaxin have been delivered, and there will be another 10 million by April end. But an added 500-600 million Indians will be eligible for vaccines after May 1. The numbers don’t add up. None of the ramped up production or potential new vaccine options will kick in until late summer. Already, many senior citizens in Tamil Nadu can’t get their second dose due to a shortage. 

In sum: Vaccines are not going to help get us out of this hellish situation.

At the courts…

Ok, here’s where things get a little murky. 

The High Courts: have been hearing a number of petitions related to the pandemic in various jurisdictions—Allahabad, Calcutta, Delhi, Bombay etc. And their rulings have been almost uniformly highly critical of the government—be it union or state. In Delhi, for example, the High Court ordered the Centre to “beg, borrow, steal” oxygen to restore supplies. 

The Supreme Court: has now decided in its wisdom to take over all pandemic-related cases, saying the multiple High Court rulings are “creating confusion and diversion of resources.” And it offered unclear justifications such as these: 

“The high courts have passed certain orders which may have the effect of accelerating and prioritising the services to a certain set of people and slowing down the availability of these resources to certain other groups whether the groups are local, regional or otherwise.”

The Court now says it will deal with “supply of oxygen, supply of essential drugs, method and manner of vaccination, declaration of lockdown”—and demand that the Centre offer “a national plan on these issues.”

The murky bits: are the following:

• The Supreme Court has issued a notice to the Union government to come up with a plan. But it has not invited the states to be part of this debate at all—which is strange since they are the ones who have to implement any ‘national plan’ at the local level. 
• Next, while the justices declared the situation to be “almost a national emergency”, they adjourned the hearing to today—unlike High Courts that have been hearing cases late into the night. 
• This move is a mirror image of what the Court did last year when High Courts were taking governments to task over the plight of migrant workers during the lockdown. 
• And this was the outcome: “However, in the six substantial hearings it held in the case, the apex court only sought affidavits from states on the number of migrant workers, the plan to transport them to their destination, the mechanism of registration. The case has not come up before the court since September last year, even as some states are yet to file their replies.”

One last murky bit: 

• The Court appointed Supreme Court lawyer Harish Salve as the amicus curiae (friend of the court) to assist the justices. 
• But Salve is already representing the company Vedanta in a separate case related to the oxygen shortage. And he has appeared before the court for the vaccine maker Serum Institute of India. All of which suggests a conflict of interest.
• Vedanta’s Sterlite copper plant at Thoothukudi (Tuticorin) in Tamil Nadu was shut down in 2018 after violent protests sparked by environmental and health concerns. 
• Now Vedanta is pressing for permission to reopen the plant as a humanitarian gesture: it will produce a thousand tonnes of oxygen and give it free of charge to treat patients. 
• The Tamil Nadu government isn’t keen, but the Court has already declared: “There is almost a national emergency and you [Tamil Nadu] don’t put spokes in the solution. We will hear it [plea of Vedanta] tomorrow (April 23).”

Two key points to note: The High Courts have insisted on continuing with their pandemic-related cases despite the Supreme Court’s intervention. And interestingly, the The Supreme Court Bar Association has filed a petition asking the Supreme Court to allow the High Courts to deal with these cases, saying they “appear to be best suited to deal with the situation.”

The bottomline: “What we’re seeing happen was not inevitable or unavoidable,” says a leading epidemiologist. And he’s right. If we had used the time after the first wave to prepare, much of this suffering would have been avoidable. We relied instead on magical thinking, complacent that somehow India and Indians were a ‘special case’, protected (be it by our age or immunity) from the virus’ worst effects. There is nothing magical about where we are today or why.

Reading list

There isn’t much more background to offer here. The Telegraph has a good piece on how the second wave could and should have been anticipated. Indian Express politely raises red flags around the Supreme Court’s decision to take over the pandemic cases. And we did an in-depth explainer on the oxygen shortage yesterday.