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America sacks Donald Trump
The TLDR: Yup, it’s over and he lost—and ‘bigly’ once all the votes are counted. And Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have made all sorts of history while ousting him from office. Of course, Trump isn’t accepting defeat, and will not go quietly into the good night. And while the vast majority of Americans voted for the return of sanity, neither Trump nor his supporters are going to disappear.
We look at Joe Biden’s victory and its consequences.
The end of an election
Not exactly close: In the end, it was a pretty convincing win for Biden. He is now projected to win both Pennsylvania and Nevada—and that takes his total to a comfortable 290 (required number: 270). Once all the votes are counted, FiveThirtyEight predicts he will likely have 81.8 million votes to President Trump’s 74.9 million—a 6.9 million margin!
Point to note: If all these votes had been counted on Election Day, this would have looked like a comfortable win—with Biden reclaiming key blue states, and winning new territory in the red. OTOH, this is nowhere close to a landslide.
A bizarre and hilarious end: The TV networks called the race right in the middle of a very odd press conference called by Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani. The venue: the parking lot of Four Seasons Total Landscaping—which sits “between a dildo store and a crematorium.” The strange and sad location (see here) led many to believe that the Trump campaign had messed up and booked the wrong Four Seasons. But they insist this was their plan all along. Best moment: When a reporter at the presser had to break the bad news to Rudy (watch here).
Here’s how Joe Biden got the news:
And the Bidens responded by tweeting out this photo:
Kamala Harris’ ancestral village responded with this awesome kolam:
Where was Trump? Golfing, of course.
A historic beginning: The Biden/Harris victory marks a lot of history-making firsts. Kamala Harris is the first Vice President who is a) a woman, b) Black, and c) Asian/Indian. As one political expert puts it, "In a sense, it is the first time in American history that the election of the vice president would be more historic than the election of the president.” This simple photo makes it clear just how ground-breaking her achievement is:
Also a record: Joe Biden at 78 is the oldest ever US President: “On November 3, Biden was the same age—77 years, 11 months, 14 days—as Ronald Reagan was the day he left office.” But thanks to Biden, Major will be the first ever rescue dog to move into the White House. (People has this sweet story)
The mood in America: is mostly relief and joy—outside Trump World, that is. There was lots of crying. See: CNN commentator Van Jones, this 86-year old mother and… JLo! Also: lots of dancing and honking!
So what’s next for Trump?
He has been tweeting relentlessly about election fraud since Sunday morning. Worryingly—and totally unsurprisingly—his supporters totes believe him. Will he ever concede—like any world leader in a democracy? Highly unlikely, but his aides “are hoping to convince him to publicly commit to a peaceful transition”—so he won’t have to be escorted out of the White House. For a bit of fun: check out Saturday Night Live’s version of his concession speech.
In Trump’s corner: Many of the leading Republicans in Congress have not congratulated Biden. The most important among them—Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell—hasn’t said a word against Trump’s wild allegations. The big reason: Trump supporters delivered all the gains Republicans made in Congress in this election—and helped many avoid defeat:
“As election results are finalized, the broader outcomes of Election 2020 are already clear: It’s Trump’s Republican Party now, and GOP lawmakers on Capitol Hill are likely to continue falling in line. Whether or not he continues on as president.”
Also supporting Trump: a number of world leaders who know and love him best. While most other countries (including India) sent congratulatory messages, Russia and China remained absolutely mum, as has the Saudi royal family.
Not in Trump’s corner: Former president George Bush who called Biden to wish him well. And the Rupert Murdoch-owned New York Post. Yup, he’s been dumped!
Point to note: Trump’s lawsuits may fizzle out for the lack of evidence. He may or may not incite violent protests in the streets in the weeks to come. But some insist there is a far more insidious long-term strategy at play:
“[I]t is in Trump’s interest, and a part of the Republican Party’s interest, to maintain the fiction that the election was stolen. That’s because the same base, the base that distrusts American democracy, could still be extremely useful to Trump, as well as to the Republican Party, in years to come.”
A permanently angry army can be very useful:
- The so-called ‘stolen election’ offers an excellent excuse for Republicans to refuse to cooperate with Biden—and create an ongoing campaign to delegitimize his presidency.
- Raise money to fund Trump’s legal battles, i.e. the many financial fraud investigations that are already underway.
- Finance the Trump business. They will pay for Trump merch, stay at his hotels, buy tickets to his MAGA rallies—and even become loyal viewers to a future Trump TV channel.
And of course, there’s always Trump 2024:
“For months, as his chances of being re-elected dwindled, Mr. Trump told advisers—sometimes joking, sometimes not—that should he lose he would promptly announce that he was running again in 2024. Two advisers said they anticipate he will make good on that declaration if his legal challenges fail and are defeated, a move that if nothing else would allow him to raise money to finance the rallies that sustain him.”
So what’s next for Biden?
There’s been a lot of ink spilled on the subject of a Biden White House over the weekend. So we’re going to try and keep it simple.
Who is Joe? He is calm, consistent and above all, he sees politics as the art of compromise. Vox has the best long read on his character and how he will govern. The key bit:
“Biden is a politician, in the truest, deepest sense of the term. In a culture that rewards the performance of uncompromising conviction and the aesthetics of anti-Washington outsiders, Biden delights in the pluralistic, messy work of political negotiation.
His politics isn’t about what he believes, but about finding the intersection of what he believes, what he believes the country believes, and what the people he needs to win over believe.”
Point to note: This is likely to really piss off the more progressive wing of his party—including Alexandria Ocasia-Cortez who has already fired the opening shot against Dem moderates. Climate change group Sunrise Movement tweeted: “Joe Biden's about to get whiplash from how quickly young people turn back into his harshest critics if he doesn't deliver on the political mandate this election delivered.” All this in less than 24 hours after his victory.
What will change? The Biden administration plans to sign a flurry of executive orders undoing the worst Trump policies at home and abroad.
- Immediately set up a coronavirus task force to beat back the pandemic—at a time when the numbers are rising with dizzying speed.
- Sign back onto the Paris climate accord and rejoin the WHO—and maybe even try and revive the nuclear deal with Iran.
- Reverse the rollback of 100 public health and environmental rules that the Obama administration had in place.
- Most dramatic difference will be on immigration: “He has already proposed to quickly end family separation at the US southern border, to reinstate DACA, cut funding to the US-Mexico border wall, halt the so-called Muslim travel ban, and restore the naturalization process.”
Check out Quartz for the most comprehensive list of immediate changes
What about India?
What about H-1Bs? Expect a big U-turn on recent spate of restrictions, and relief for those on spousal visas. Biden will also remove country-specific quotas which will be a big win for Indians who account for the vast majority of H-1B applications. But Biden may replace it with a wage-based system that favours higher paid employees—and that’s not good news for Indian IT workers or recent graduates. The Hindu has details. Quartz looks specifically at wage-based allocation.
What about foreign policy? In a recent India West op-ed, Biden wrote:
“The U.S. and India will stand together against terrorism in all its forms and work together to promote a region of peace and stability where neither China nor any other country threatens its neighbors.”
That is definitely music to India’s ears. Despite the special dosti between Modi and Trump, no one expects a big change with a new president.
Two potential sticking points: are as follows.
One: Human rights. Both Biden and Harris have been outspoken on both Kashmir and the citizenship law. And they will not hesitate to raise the issue of human rights—but most likely in private. One foreign policy expert says:
“The Biden team understands that lecturing India publicly or threatening it publicly will not go down well, and will not achieve any change that they want to see. I suspect you might have a Biden Administration that is more likely to bring these issues up privately [than the Trump Administration]. But I think publicly, you’ll see a continuation of what we saw both Obama and Trump do, which is alluding to these issues through talking about the importance for the world of India as a diverse, tolerant democracy.”
Two: China. The shared concern about Beijing is expected to be the glue that binds, but, but, but, as James Crabtree points out:
“If American policy ends up going slightly easier on China than Trump did, and going after Russia, then that complicates India’s position… [India] wouldn’t be too keen on that, given they have good relations with Russia.”
Time has the best read, and Suhasini Haider’s op-ed in The Hindu offers an India-centric view.
The bottomline: In the annals of famous last words...
Reading list
If you really, really want more: Read The Atlantic’s profile of Kamala Harris’ mother. Politico on the impending messy divorce between Fox News and Trump. Washington Post on why Trump lost. Also in The Atlantic: Why this wasn’t a landslide. Quartz on the rise of Indian Americans in US politics. On Bidens connection to India, read either about the Bombay Bidens or about a possible Chennai Biden.