the big story

Sachin Pilot gets his walking papers

The TLDR: The young-ish Congress leader was fired from every job he had in Rajasthan: Deputy Chief Minister of Rajasthan, cabinet minister, and state party chief. Pilot hasn’t been evicted from the party as yet, and it isn’t clear if he will join the BJP.  And the Congress may yet hold on to the gaddi. Here’s a quick breakdown of an eventful day.

The recap: As we explained on Monday, Pilot broke ranks to openly challenge CM Ashok Gehlot—claiming that he is ready to leave the party with 30 other loyalists. The reason: Pilot insists that he deserves to be mukhya mantri because he worked oh-so-hard to put Congress in power in Rajasthan. He is also mad because Gehlot has raised questions about his loyalty in various ways. The immediate trigger: Pilot was summoned by the police for questioning in a case that involves two low-ranking BJP leaders discussing his possible defection to the BJP. 

Ok, what happened now…

• As part of his revolt, Pilot refused to attend a legislative meeting on Monday called by Gehlot. This is a gross violation of party rules. 
• But everyone from Rahul Gandhi to Priyanka tried to coax him back into the fold. 
• Carrots offered: more powerful cabinet portfolios and dropping that BJP-related case.
• Gehlot then called a second meeting, and offered Pilot a second chance to get it right. 
• Pilot didn’t show up for that one either, and stayed put at a hotel with his loyal MLAs.
• The result: the party sacked him from every position he held in Rajasthan. 
• The party spokesperson said: “Several senior leaders talked to Pilot and asked him to return. But we regret that Sachinji and some MLAs fell into the BJP trap and became part of the conspiracy to topple the government.”
• Gehlot later offered five reasons—including disloyalty, stubbornness and blackmail—for why he had to sack Pilot.
• Pilot’s reaction: a tweet that said, “Satya ko pareshan kiya ja sakta hai, parajit nahin” (Truth can be tormented, can’t be defeated).

So what happens now?

Here are Pilot’s post-eviction options:

Bring down Gehlot: He can try and do a Jyotiraditya Scindia, i.e. join BJP and bring the Congress government down. But the numbers are stacked against him. 

• The Congress has 107 MLAs and the support of 18 Independents. The majority required: 101. 
• Pilot claims to have peeled off 20-22 MLAs—though others put the number at 17. 
• And he hopes a floor test—where the ruling government has to show its majority on the floor of the Assembly—will bring more of them into the fold. 
• But, even if 30 MLAs resign, the new majority mark will be 86. And Congress will still have 95 seats—if the 18 Independent candidates stay by its side.
• OTOH, the BJP and its allies only have 76 seats.
• Point to note: the BJP does not want a repeat of Maharashtra where NCP leader Ajit Pawar jumped ship—but Shiv Sena managed to hold on to power, and bring Pawar back into the fold.
• Interesting to note: Two of Gehlot’s aides were suddenly subjected to income tax raids in the midst of this drama. 

Join the BJP, anyway: The party is publicly throwing out the welcome mat, with one Union cabinet minister saying: “Any leader with a mass base who wishes to join the BJP should be welcomed.” But Pilot is unlikely to be rewarded with any juicy prize in the state—even if Gehlot falls. The reason: The state BJP unit is firmly in Vasundhara Raje’s iron-fisted grip. But, but, but, Pilot could land a cabinet ministry in Delhi instead.

Accept defeat and stay: While this was the leadership’s hope before Pilot was sacked, that option may no longer be on the table. Gehlot certainly sounds like he is done.

Launch another party: Given his formidable grassroots experience, Pilot could establish a new party in the state—one that offers an alternative to the Congress, and potentially plays kingmaker in elections to come. But Rajasthan has long been a two-party state, and breaking that monopoly will be difficult.

The bottomline: As The Hindu notes, the Congress party is being torn apart by internal battles in almost every state—be it Haryana, Punjab, Chhattisgarh or Himachal Pradesh. And much of it has to do with the power vacuum at the very top—created by Rahul Gandhi’s exit as party chief. But the exit of ambitious leaders also reflects their assessment of Congress’ future—much as rodents assess the prospects of a sinking ship.

Reading list

The Telegraph and Times of India offer an overview. Our previous Big Story explained Pilot’s rebellion in greater detail. Indian Express explains the electoral math. The Print argues Pilot basically played to the script written for him by Gehlot. The Tribune, however, takes aim at Pilot’s unseemly and overweening ambition. The Hindu surveys the Congress party’s brewing internal battles across the nation.