The mystery of India’s Covid numbers
The TLDR: Since we are not going to wade into the Sushant Singh Rajput mess, we decided instead to decode the mystery of two warring headlines. The Indian Express’ front page story reads: “Hope in numbers: Daily cases stable for two weeks, tests show fewer positives.” OTOH, Times of India declares: ‘Record 70k+ new cases in a day, 13k just in Maharashtra’. Can both be true? The answer: yes. Here’s a quick breakdown of the numbers.
The big all-India picture
A bird’s eye view of India numbers is indeed rosier. Indian Express is upbeat for that very reason.
One: The positivity rate—the percentage of all coronavirus tests performed that are actually positive—is coming down, falling from a peak of 9.01% on August 9 to 8.72%.
This may be because more states are testing at random (increasing the chances of uninfected people being tested). But as the Express notes, more parts of the country are still doing targeted testing. Also, we are testing more than ever:
“When the number of daily new detection of infected cases had first crossed the 60,000 mark in the first week of August, around 6.5 lakh samples were being tested every day. Now, about 8.5 lakh tests are being conducted every day. Usually, higher number of tests results in higher detection of positive cases.”
Also: As per recent serological surveys, far greater numbers were infected and recovered with only mild or zero symptoms. These people too will bring down the positivity rate as they will show up as negative in random testing.
Two: That brings us to the second bit of good news. The number of daily new cases has been fairly stable at the mid-60K mark for two weeks—despite increased testing! This is in sharp contrast to recent months, when our numbers rose quickly—speeding past each milestone. We went in a week from 30,000 to 40,000, and then to 50,000 a week later. And we stayed in that 50K range for only eight days.
Point to note: Times of India—which tracks these numbers independently—says that this number crossed 70K on Wednesday. The official number is 69,652. Even so, it remains to be seen whether or not this is a one-day anomaly. Due to delays in processing and recording test results, the daily average can vary quite a bit. For example: weekend numbers are always low.
Three: Our recovery numbers have been very healthy, crossing the two million mark. The daily number of recovered patients is now larger than the daily new cases. Our overall recovery rate is 73.18%.
The state-specific picture
This is where the picture becomes far less rosy. Times of India emphasizes big surges in daily new cases reported by individual states—which have pushed up the overall total.
New cases: Maharashtra recorded a big daily surge becoming the first state to cross the 13K mark. Its previous peak was 12,822 cases on August 8. More importantly, its trajectory remains steep:
“In the last 19 days of August alone, Maharashtra has added 2.07 lakh new cases and of these only 19,331, or 9.3%, were from Mumbai. In July, it took the state 26 days to add two lakh cases, indicating the rapid spread of the infection in other areas of Maharashtra. Worryingly for the state, the active caseload has now gone up to 1.6 lakh, after hovering under the 1.5 lakh range for the last 30 days.”
The other states to record all-time daily highs: Kerala (2333), Uttar Pradesh (5156), Jharkhand (1266), Punjab (1693), Haryana (994), Chhattisgarh (759) and Jammu & Kashmir (708).
Recovery rates: As Business Standard noted of the Tuesday numbers, recovery percentages in many of the states is far lower than the national number: Punjab (63.26%), Karnataka (65.14%), Kerala (65.54%), Uttar Pradesh (67.48%).
Positivity rates: also vary widely across the country.
- The overall positivity rate for India may be 8.72% but it is far higher for individual states: Maharashtra (18.84%), Puducherry (14.34%), Telangana (12.38%), Delhi (11.57%), and Karnataka (11.29%).
- More importantly, the daily positivity rate—as a percentage of daily tests conducted—is staggeringly high in a number of states: Andaman & Nicobar (31.7%), Mizoram (26.01%), Puducherry (24.3%), Maharashtra (18.88%), and Andhra Pradesh (17.21%).
- Now not all of them have high overall totals or conduct the same number of tests. But for Andhra Pradesh—which has now conducted 3 million-plus tests—that number is worrying. It has added 61,712 cases in the past seven days alone.
The bottomline: Even if the national pandemic shows signs of stabilising, it is clear some of India’s largest states—many of them key to our economic recovery—are still in trouble. Another point to note: Stability does not always suggest a rapid decline. The US peaked in July at around 70K daily cases, and is now holding steady at 40-50K. Picture abhi baaki hai.
Reading list
- Indian Express takes the expansive view. Times of India focuses on the states. Hindustan Times has the good news about recovery rates.
- Reuters reports on how the spread to rural areas is clouding the prospects of recovery.
- Mint reports on a plan to authorise emergency approval of India-made vaccines.
- India Today reports on new research into sewage in Hyderabad which suggests that 6.6 lakh residents are infected.
- Also: read our explainers on the race for a vaccine and long haul Covid recoveries and how serological surveys work.