America votes, world holds breath
ICYMI: We did a big-ass explainer on Monday that has all the context you need to keep up with today’s developments.
The TLDR: Here’s where the count is right before we hit ‘publish’ on this edition. Joe Biden: 209. Donald Trump: 112. The total number of electoral college votes needed to win: 270. Number of states remaining: 22. Both candidates have mostly scored the easy wins in their traditional strongholds.
The voting: has closed—having gone smoothly contrary to expectations—and the counting has begun.
The favourite right now
Joe Biden is still expected to win.
- Five Thirty Eight—which analyses aggregated poll data—says he will prevail even if the polls got it wrong as they did in 2016. But here’s the nub: Even if they get it right, that +/-3% standard margin of error will mark the difference between a landslide and a messy narrow win—which opens the door to chaos.
- OTOH, if the polls are exactly right—and Joe Biden wins the states where he’s ahead—this will be the most resounding defeat of an incumbent president since Herbert Hoover lost to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932.
- If it matters, stock market traders are confident of a decisive outcome. Quartz has that story.
Also important: Whether Democrats win control of the Senate. If so, they will control both houses of Congress and the White House. A comfortable majority will make a big difference when it’s time to push through reforms, and maybe add more justices to the Supreme Court. What are the chances? 75% for a simple majority. Not so great news for Trump haters. His BFF Lindsey Graham has managed to hold on to his seat.
What to watch out for
CNN has a live blog. New York Times explains what we will know and when we will know it. Also: its dreaded needles predict likely outcomes based on early counts. The Atlantic offers a great guide on the numbers and states to keep an eye on. The states they are watching:
- Georgia—where Trump won by five points in 2016, but Biden is projected to eke out a narrow victory. But the New York Times needle says this is “probably” a Trump win.
- North Carolina—where Hillary Clinton was ahead in the pre-election polls by five points, but lost the state to Trump. Also: a prime example of the 2016 polling debacle. Biden again is favoured to win. But again, the NYT needle says this one is “pretty likely” Trump.
- Ohio, the one swing state least likely to turn blue. If it does, that’s a big one!
- The biggie: Florida (as always 🙄). The NYT needle estimates that Trump has definitely won this one.
What to wait on: If Trump holds on to Florida and other red states, the final outcome may depend on Pennsylvania and Michigan—the two states that won’t deliver results today. The reason: They don’t start counting mail-in and early voting ballots until Election Day. And there are millions of them in this pandemic year.
A list of fun things
To help ease anxiety, we offer the following:
One: The New York Times has also put together a very soothing collection of Election Distractors.
Two: Thanks to this insane election, Tracy Chapman emerged to sing ‘Talking about a Revolution’. Watch her here.
Three: Daily Mail rounded up the front pages of newspapers around the world on November 3. Our favourite: The West Australian—which is featured in our lead image.
Four: everyone is rooting for Kamala Harris, including her village in Tamil Nadu and Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal who made paneer tikka in her honour (coz Kamala is a bad South Indian who loves “any kind of North Indian food”)
Five: Also tweeting: Donald Jr who shared his electoral predictions—except with a map of the world. Please note: India is blue!
Three good reads
And they have nothing to do with who is up or down.
- Mohammed Hanif’s Guardian essay sums up the world’s mood: ‘The rest of the world has had it with US presidents, Trump or otherwise.’
- This scathingly funny thread ‘reports’ on the US election as though it were being held in an African nation.
- This thread by Latif Nasser connects the appearance of a Democratic blue Nike-like swoosh running through the heart of the South with planktons dying in the Cretaceous era. Yes, you read that right. And the way he makes that connection is surprising and delightful.