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The TLDR: US-based research lab AidData has uncovered the true amount owed to China by countries around the world—thanks to its “Belt and Road initiative” (BRI) projects. The total amount: $385 billion. The number of countries: 165. This is certainly bad news for these nations. But is it also bad news for China?
Wait, what’s this BRI?
In 2013, President Xi announced a multi-billion dollar global project called the Belt and Road Initiative—a wildly ambitious plan to connect Asia, Africa and Europe with overland corridors and maritime sea lanes. The yi dai yi lu is a “21st century silk road” that initially involved 71 countries—which account for half the world’s population and a quarter of global GDP.
The latest version looks like this (see it in far greater detail here)
How this works: Most of these corridors run through low and middle income countries. Beijing lends vast amounts of money to them to finance big-ticket infrastructure projects (think ports, highways, railway lines etc). Chinese construction companies then come in to actually execute the projects. The problems start when the nations can’t repay the loans.
Ok, so how much do they owe China?
That’s where the new research comes in. AidData analysed more than 13,000 aid- and debt-financed projects worth more than $843 billion across 165 countries—over a period of 18 years upto the end of 2017. And it found that the amount owed to China is “substantially larger” than what global credit agencies and financial institutions estimate.
The real numbers: At least 165 countries owe $385 billion to China. More worryingly, debt owed to China in 42 low-to-middle income countries exceeded 10% of their GDP—which includes Laos, Papua New Guinea, the Maldives, Brunei, Cambodia and Myanmar.
The hidden debt: Until now, the true size of the debt trap remained unknown. The reason:
- Initially, China used to lend directly to governments—which had to publicly declare these loans.
- However, Beijing pivoted to lending money to private entities: “Many poor governments could not take on any more loans. So [China] got creative.”
- Now, almost 70% of its loans go to state-owned companies and banks, joint ventures and private institutions.
- Their reporting requirements are not as strict—and therefore the loans don’t appear on a government’s balance sheets.
- And the discrepancy is staggering. One example: The $5.9 billion China-Laos railway project is funded entirely with unofficial debt equivalent to about a third of the country’s GDP.
Point to note: Until now, there was no official figure on how much these countries owed on BRI projects—or even China’s own BRI investment. One reason is that the definition of a ‘belt and road’ project has been kept deliberately fuzzy. Another reason: China does not disclose details of its overseas lending—which is often made through state-owned banks and companies in US dollars. So until now we’ve mostly relied on guesstimates.
Why does any of this matter?
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