Has India beaten back the pandemic?

The TLDR: Yesterday, a panel of the nation’s top scientists confirmed that India has indeed passed its peak in mid-September. But does this mean we are out of the woods? We look at what the present numbers reveal, lay out the forecasts and strong cautions issued by experts. The period that will determine our future path: festival season!

Tell me what the panel said

The panel: is comprised of seven scientists—including the world-renowned microbiologist Dr Gagandeep Kang. They used a special mathematical model that looks at the rates of infection, recoveries and deaths—and the percentage of patients who have severe diseases. It also maps the trajectory of the disease by accounting for asymptomatic cases. 

The assessment: We passed our peak in mid-September when we had more than a million cases—and were adding over 93,000 new ones each day. If we stay safe and take the required precautions, the pandemic will run its course by February. Four additional findings:

• The lockdown did indeed ‘flatten the curve’. Without it, the number of active cases in India would have peaked at more than 14 million, and we would have witnessed 2.6 million deaths—which is way above our current number, 114,610. 
• Key quote: "The peak would have arrived by June. This would have resulted in overwhelming our hospitals and caused widespread panic."
• The return of migrants to villages had “minimal impact”—which “indicates the success of quarantine strategies adopted for the returning migrants.”
• They do not advocate imposition of new lockdowns unless there is a real danger of hospitals etc being overwhelmed.
• According to their estimate, around 30% of the population is currently infected. And that number will go up to 50% by February—which in turn will help stop the spread.

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