The 50% hike: From tariff trauma to tariff calamity

Written by: Aarthi Ramnath, Raghav Bikhchandani & Yash Budhwar

Our daily list of Souk picks

Editor’s note: As you may have noticed, we just unveiled a beta version of Souk—which has one simple goal: To help you find unique, high quality products that are worth your time and money.

One: We’re big fans of Nutella but find it to be too sweet. Luckily, Souk offers this alternative—the Chocolate Hazelnut Spread by Brawny Bear. This one’s made with 50% roasted hazelnuts, real cocoa, and no refined sugar. The sweetness comes from dates. There’s no palm oil or preservatives, and the ingredient list reads more like a pantry than a science lab.

Two: We love themed quilts such as the Lodhi Garden Quilt by Safomasi. This is a little piece of Delhi, stitched into soft cotton with quiet detail. The morning walkers, the parakeets, the yogi in mid-pose… even the couple lost in their own little world. The print is hand screen-printed on cotton in soft greens, blues, and terracotta pinks. It’s lightweight, machine-washable, and cosy enough to use all year round.

Three: Looking for a men’s shirt that doesn’t try too hard? The Mogra Shirt by Shop Darwaza gets that balance just right. This one is made from kala cotton in the softest shade of pink, with delicate hand-embroidered mogra flowers and subtle mirror work. What really sold us was the overall vibe: a little nostalgic, slightly dressy, but never overdone. It’s the kind of shirt that quietly elevates your everyday outfit.

PS: This is a beta launch and feedback—good or bad—is key. So please email the team at dearsouk@splainer.in with your thoughts. We want to get this right!

The 50% hike: From tariff trauma to tariff calamity

Quick refresher: New Delhi was blindsided by the 25% hike announced last week—out of the blue while it had been calmly negotiating a trade deal for months. At the time, Donald Trump had also threatened an unspecified “penalty” for buying Russian weapons and oil. But India refused to back down: “saying Indian oil companies had not paused Russian imports and that supply decisions were based on ‘price, grade of crude, inventories, logistics and other economic factors’.” Everyone was still hopeful that the bilateral agreement would put an end to the misery—with an Indian team of negotiators slated to arrive late this month.

What happened now: The already shell-shocked India has been slapped with an additional 25%—if it continues to buy Russian oil after August 27. The allegation:

Mr. Trump faulted the Indian government this week on social media for buying “massive amounts” of Russian oil and selling it on the open market, saying, “They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine.”

The effective US rate on Indian goods is now 50%—among the highest in the world—matched only by Brazil.

The Indian response: was measured and to the point:

We have already made clear our position on these issues, including the fact that our imports are based on market factors and done with the overall objective of ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion people of India. It is therefore extremely unfortunate that the US should choose to impose additional tariffs on India for actions that several other countries are also taking in their own national interest. We reiterate that these actions are unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable.

Reminder: Turkey, a NATO ally, is the third largest buyer of Russian oil. Then there’s the EU which imported $39.1 billion of Russian goods last year, including $25.2 billion in oil. And, of course, China—Russia’s best customer. But Beijing has better bargaining chips:

In 2024, China bought $62.6 billion of Russian oil—more than India’s $52.7 billion—yet faces no such penalties. Washington avoids targeting Beijing because of China’s leverage over critical materials such as gallium, germanium, rare earths, and graphite, vital for US defence and technology.

Point to note: The ‘emergency order’ signed by Trump lays the ground for widening the number of targets—directing administration officials to identify if “any other country is directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil.” Also this:

Asked why he was “singling India out” for additional tariffs, Mr. Trump said, “It’s only been eight hours. So let’s see what happens over the… You’re going to see a lot more. You’re going to see so much secondary sanctions,” he said.

The Russia angle: As we explained in greater length in our Big Story, Trump is furious at Vladimir Putin for refusing to even consider a ceasefire—despite being threatened by various colourful consequences. This is one way to show Trump is serious—by going after the #2 purchaser of oil. Notably, the announcement was made shortly after US envoy Steve Witkoff held talks with Putin in Moscow. The ‘deadline’ for Putin to come to the table is tomorrow, btw.

What’s next: Trump plans to meet Putin in person as early as next week—to be followed by a summit with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Btw, a meeting with Trump is actually a win for Moscow. Western allies have refused to deal with him directly since the invasion.

But, but, but: When asked what would happen if Russia does not meet his Friday deadline, Trump said: “Well, there will be sanctions, but they seem to be pretty good at avoiding sanctions.” Even more infuriatingly, Trump refused to say whether the ‘penalty’ would be removed if there is a ceasefire: “Well, we’ll determine that later, but right now, they’re paying a 50% tariff.”

Window of hope? Indian experts still hold out some hope for a last-minute reprieve—in the form of a deal:

Considerable ambiguity surrounds the actual impact. Essentially, the 25% tariff applies to goods after 21 days of the order, creating a crucial three-week window for diplomatic resolution. The timing differential creates strategic uncertainty—the question is whether this represents an opening for negotiations or a genuine escalation in trade policy.

One cause for pessimism: Trump has now moved on to threatening a 100% tariff on any semiconductor chip not made in the US—demolishing India’s carefully tended long-term plan to do exactly that.

The big picture: The consequences of a collapse in India-US trade are far greater than the $45 billion trade surplus we enjoy. As stock market analysts point out, the close US-India relationship has been the bedrock for foreign investments in India:

Bets like Blackstone’s are about the future of business between India, China and the United States, he said, and bring expertise from one economy to another. India was benefiting from that. But now it looks like a vulnerability. The rupture of the relationship has generated huge uncertainty. Who wants to be responsible for making the next big bet?

Reading list: Mint has the best overview of the new tariff—and its impact. New York Times lays out the collapse of the India-US dosti. The Telegraph reminds us that PM Modi is flying out to China for a global summit—signalling a different set of countermoves by New Delhi.

Satya Nadella’s secret ‘cloud’ affair with the IDF

The context: For months now, Microsoft has been under pressure for its ties to Israel’s military. Employees have staged protests. Investors have raised concerns over Microsoft’s ability to track the misuse of its AI tools, saying that "Microsoft's human rights due diligence processes appear ineffective in the face of serious allegations of complicity in genocide and other international crimes." CEO Satya Nadella’s response has been to sack anyone who speaks out.

What happened now: An investigation by The Guardian, +972 Magazine and Local Call reveals a new aspect of Microsoft’s collab with the Israeli military. Unit 8200, the Israeli military’s elite intelligence agency, stores great volumes of intercepted Palestinian phone calls on Microsoft’s cloud servers in Europe—after reaching an agreement with Nadella himself in 2021.

Here’s what the data is used for:

Unit 8200 sources said intelligence drawn from the enormous repositories of phone calls held in Azure had been used to research and identify bombing targets in Gaza. One of the sources said that when planning an airstrike on an individual located within densely populated areas where high numbers of civilians are present, officers would use the cloud-based system to examine calls made by people in the immediate vicinity.

This cloud-based system has also “been used to blackmail people, place them in detention, or even justify their killing after the fact.”

The Microsoft denial: The company says it has no clue about how its cloud services are being used. It also points to an external review that claimed there is “no evidence” that Azure or its AI tools were used to harm civilians. Except that it was commissioned by Microsoft itself.

But, but, but: This investigation uncovered internal documents that show otherwise:

Documents suggest that Microsoft engineers understood the data stored in Azure would include raw intelligence, including audio files, while some Israel-based Microsoft staff, including alumni of Unit 8200, appear to have known about what the unit hoped the joint project would achieve. “You don’t have to be a genius to figure it out,” one source said. “You tell [Microsoft] we don’t have any more space on the servers, that it’s audio files. It’s pretty clear what it is.”

Sariel aur Nadella ki dosti: Yossi Sariel is the former commander of Unit 8200 and the architect of this cloud project. He reportedly told colleagues about his “friendly” relationship with Nadella. In fact, he pitched the Microsoft partnership as “the solution to our problems in the Palestinian arena.” The two had a key meeting in 2021 to plan "moving vast amounts of top secret intelligence material into the US company’s cloud":

[A]ccording to internal Microsoft records of the meeting seen by the Guardian, Nadella offered support for Sariel’s aspiration to move so much of the elite surveillance unit’s data into the cloud, described earlier in the meeting as including sensitive intelligence material… [The record] adds that Nadella said “building the partnership is so critical” and “Microsoft is committed to providing resources to support.”

OTOH, Microsoft insists that Nadella only briefly attended the meeting and did not discuss the nature of the data being transferred.

Data point to note: By 2024, more than 11,500 terabytes of Israeli military data—enough for 200 million hours of audio—was stored in Microsoft servers in the Netherlands and Ireland.

The big picture: Yup, Satya Nadella helps kill Gazan kids. NRIs, always making the country proud! The Guardian has lots more details of the investigation.

MAP Academy fellowships alert!!

Editor’s note: As you know, the wonderful MAP Academy is our content partner for Advisory. It is one of the few Indian institutions deeply invested in cultural research and education. They also offer rare funded opportunities for researchers, designers, archivists, journalists, writers and educators. The Nalli Fellowship is one of them.

Over to MAP Academy…

We’re pleased to announce that a new cycle of the MAP Academy & Nalli Fellowships will open to applications soon. Designed to support research and practice in South Asia’s diverse textile traditions, the Fellowship is born out of a collaboration between MAP Academy and Nalli Silks, a heritage textile brand based in India.

Programme Details: Four fellowships, each with a grant of INR 5,50,000, will be awarded.

The programme is open to a wide range of people, from individuals to collectives, from researchers to practitioners. We’re hoping to receive applications on a range of subjects, and these include:

Histories of clothing and costume
Community or personal textile archives
Textiles in religious or liturgical contexts
Environmental impact of textile production and consumption
Endangered or disappearing textile traditions
Critical perspectives on revivalism
Labour in textile production, with a focus on caste, class, and gender
Textiles in relation to other cultural forms—storytelling, poetry, music, architecture, and material culture
Textiles in the context of archaeological study
Textiles as symbols or metaphors in literature or mythology
Techniques and tools used in specific textile traditions

You can read more about the Fellowships here. We will begin accepting applications starting August 18, 2025.

To register your interest and receive a reminder when applications open, please visit this link. For any queries, contact us at: fellowships@map-india.org

what caught our eye

business & tech

Amazon is rolling out its new AI voice assistant Alexa+ to millions in early access, and CEO Andy Jassy has hinted that ads could soon be part of its conversations to boost revenue.
Meta’s latest Instagram update adds TikTok-style reposts and a Snap Map-like location tracker—features that feel more 2017 than new.
ChatGPT gave detailed advice to researchers posing as teens on how to misuse drugs, hide eating disorders, and even write a suicide note.
A survey by an app workers' union has flagged poor working conditions at 51 quick commerce warehouses in the NCR, reporting a lack of toilets, clean water, rest areas, and basic safety measures.

sports & entertainment

Lin-Manuel Miranda has announced that a filmed version of the original ‘Hamilton’ cast will finally hit theatres on September 5, nearly a decade after the musical's debut.

health & environment

Abandoned fishing gear is a major source of microplastic pollution along India’s coasts.

meanwhile, in the world

Donald Trump and Rupert Murdoch have agreed to delay the 94-year-old media mogul’s deposition in a libel case over an Epstein-related Wall Street Journal report, pending the outlet’s motion to dismiss.
Ghana’s defence and environment ministers were among eight killed in a helicopter crash in a southern region of the country, government officials confirmed Wednesday.
After decades of punishing parents under its one-child rule, China is now offering cash to boost births—but experts say youth aren't biting, citing high costs and job insecurity.
The Norwegian government says it will review its $1.9 trillion sovereign wealth fund’s investments in Israel after a local investigation revealed it holds shares in an Israeli firm supplying jet engine parts to fighter jets used in Gaza.
The conservative-led council in Jumilla, Spain, has sparked outrage after banning Muslim religious festivals like Eid from being celebrated in public spaces such as civic centres and gyms.
Italy has approved a €13.5 billion plan to build the world’s longest single-span bridge linking Sicily to the mainland—a decades-old dream now backed by Giorgia Meloni’s government despite past concerns over cost, earthquakes, and mafia influence.
The UK charity watchdog has flagged governance lapses at Prince Harry’s Sentebale foundation—citing poor complaint processes and unclear roles—but found no evidence of bullying or harassment. For context, read our coverage here.
The Trump administration has frozen $584 million in UCLA research funds over antisemitism claims, forcing the University of California into talks as the admin's crackdown now expands to public university campuses.

meanwhile, in India

An in-depth investigation by Reuters uncovers how Elon Musk’s X is taking on the Modi government in court over India’s sweeping internet takedown regime and online censorship.
Bookshelves in Jammu and Kashmir are the new battleground as the administration orders the forfeiture of 25 titles, claiming they promote radicalisation and violence against the state.
Rescue operations in Uttarakhand’s flood-hit Dharali village are being slowed down by heavy rain and blocked roads.
Over 40% of teaching posts across 21 AIIMS campuses—including 462 in Delhi—are lying vacant in 2025–26, marking the worst faculty shortage in four years at India’s top public medical institutes.
Scroll has a good read on how social media is shaking up caste hierarchies in the Hindi heartland, with women and backward caste voices now taking the mic as katha vachaks—long a Brahmin male domain.
The US has deported 1,703 Indians—including 141 women—between January 20 and July 22 this year.

Six things to see

One: Google has unveiled Genie 3—its latest AI “world” model—which are:

World models are a type of AI system that can simulate environments for purposes like education, entertainment, or to help train robots or AI agents. With world models, you give them a prompt and they generate a space that you can move around in like you would in a video game, but instead of the world being handcrafted with 3D assets, it’s all being generated with AI.

You can generate these worlds with a prompt within a few minutes—which is very impressive. You can see the promo video below. (The Verge)

Two: Since Grok’s integration into X, many users rely on the AI chatbot for fact checks. That may not be a good idea. This is an image of nine-year-old Mariam Dawwas in the arms of her mother Modallala in Gaza City—photographed by an AFP photojournalist Omar al-Qattaa on August 2. But Grok claims she is a seven-year-old Yemeni child—photographed by Amal Hussain in October 2018. The bigger problem: The chatbot threw up the same claim—even after being forced to acknowledge its error. (AFP via France24)

Three: In case you’ve been on a (long) social media diet, here’s what you need to know about Labubus—they are kinda dumb looking plush toys that you clip on to your bag. They have become insanely popular and expensive because celebs like Rihanna and Dua Lipa love them. Disney has now released its own line called Urupocha-chan in the US. All 14 characters cost $16.99 each—which is much cheaper than some of the Labubu collectibles. See the Japanese-exclusive version of the characters from ‘Winnie the Pooh’ below. (Variety)

Four: Deepika Padukone has broken the record for the most-viewed promotional reel on Instagram. The ad for the hotel chain Hilton—posted on June 9—has garnered over 1.9 billion views. See it below. (The Hindu)

Five: Also going viral? Sydney Sweeney’s ‘Ganga snan’. Reminder: The actor’s American Eagle jeans ad went viral due to a controversy around its wording—it said Sweeney has “good genes”—covert KKK dog whistle or a dumb dad joke, who knows. The ‘outrage’ brigade on all sides of the political spectrum got some attention. With everyone else piling on, why not the Jai Gange crowd? See the snan video below. (Indian Express)

Six: Get ready for ‘Jay Kelly’—with George Clooney playing a famous movie star with Adam Sandler as his manager. The rest of the star-studded cast includes Laura Dern and Billy Crudup. It is slated to release in selected theatres on November 14 and then on Netflix on December 5. See the trailer below. (Variety)