The BJP swept back into power in the capital after 27 years. We look at how the seemingly indestructible Mr Kejriwal engineered his own downfall—while Congress took the ‘I told you so’ consolation prize.
First, the results
Of the 70 seats, the BJP won 48, the AAP 22—and the Congress scored a big fat zero for the third year running. The BJP’s previous seat total: Eight! AAP’s previous seat total: 62. The BJP increased its vote share by an impressive seven percentage points—while AAP lost 10. The really, really humiliating bit: all the big names lost their seats—including party chief Arvind Kejriwal and his righthand man Manish Sisodia. But these were narrow defeats. Kejriwal lost by 4000 votes and Sisodia by a mere 675.
But, but, but: The total vote share of the two parties is still a tie: 45.56% for the BJP and 43.57%, for AAP.
Why did AAP lose: Congress, Congress, Congress
From the very beginning—as in the India Against Corruption movement in 2011—Arvind Kejriwal has built his fortune on the ashes of Congress’ defeat. In every contest across the country—be it Goa, Uttarakhand or Punjab—AAP advanced by taking votes away from Congress—ensuring BJP’s victory. It’s now payback time.
How it started: Soon after the 2024 national elections, AAP indicated that the INDIA alliance with Congress was over—first in Haryana and now Delhi:
Earlier as well, we made it clear that the alliance with the Congress was only for the general election, and we fought it together with honesty. For the state Assembly elections, there is no need for the INDIA alliance. We will fight the polls with the help of the people of Delhi, and we will win.
How it’s going, going, gone: In 13 seats, Congress scored more votes than the AAP candidates’ margin of defeat—which in turn offered this moment of sublime irony:
The BJP’s Parvesh Verma defeated Kejriwal, in a seat the AAP chief had won three times since 2013, by 4,089 votes. The Congress candidate, Sandeep Dikshit, got 4,568 votes in the New Delhi seat to finish third. In 2013, Kejriwal had defeated Dikshit’s mother Sheila Dikshit to end her reign as CM.
The Congress effect is even more glaring in the case of Sisodia—whose margin of defeat was a mere 675 votes—while his Congress rival scored 7,350 votes.
Point to note: While Congress failed to win a single constituency, its vote share rose from 4.3% to 6.3%—almost entirely at the expense of AAP. In 2020, the AAP had won seven seats with margins of less than 5,000 but this time, lost all of them to the BJP.
The added irony: AAP is now reduced to the same regions as Congress had left—when it was trounced in 2013.
Voter inflation? When victories are this narrow, allegations of manipulation gain greater attention. In the lead-up, AAP alleged that voter rolls were being altered to favour the BJP. A Quint investigation flags some notable anomalies:
The total number of registered voters in Delhi increased by 4,16,648 in four years between the 2020 Assembly election and the 2024 Lok Sabha election, while an estimated 3,99,362 people were added to the rolls in just seven months between the May 2024 Lok Sabha election and the February 2025 Assembly election.
In Mundka, for example, the number of registered voters increased by 14,230 in four years between 2020-2024. But in just seven months between 2024-2025, the number jumped by 17,549. This means a net increase of 31,779 voters.
Voter deflation? In other cases, there was a sudden decrease of voters in key seats—like that of Kejriwal. Between the 2020 Assembly elections and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the numbers of voters dropped by 39,757. For this election, there was a small increase of 2,209 people—leaving a net loss of 37,548 electors. The cumulative effect: “In percentage terms, this comes to a decrease of 27.2%. This means that one in four people who were eligible to vote in New Delhi [seat] in 2020, was removed from the voters' list by 2024.”
Why AAP lost: Just another party
Aam Aadmi Party rose to power on the back of middle class anger at corruption—promising to clean the Delhi stables. The aam aadmi expects their neta to be dirty—but the virtuous Mr K was different. He wasn’t Left or Right—but Mr Clean. This non-ideological positioning allowed him to shape his politics as needed: spout class politics like a Leftie—even as he recited Hanuman Chalisa on TV. The BJP therefore focused entirely on proving that Kejriwal and his party were exactly like the others—corrupt:
It isn’t the individuals they are after. It is the idea once synonymous with Kejriwal. That everybody in public life and debate — politicians, corporates, media, judges, everybody — is corrupt and complicit. Or, as the India Against Corruption (IAC) war cries went: sab chor hain (everybody is a thief) and sab mile hue hain (they are all complicit). It followed that the only one truly fighting them all was Kejriwal. That’s how he became an idea, which the Modi government now wants to destroy with corruption charges: “Look, look now, who has been talking all these years.”
And what can be more ‘politics as usual’ than ending up in jail for taking bribes—for liquor licences, no less.
The ultimate welfare state: As Chief Minister, Kejriwal had bulked up his cred by adding the ‘Delhi Model’ to his resume: AAP was not just clean, it got things done—especially for the poor. Hence, free clinics, better schools etc. But welfare is hardly a moat (to use startup speak) in politics:
The most important lesson from this result is that freebie politics is here to stay and in fact has now evolved a few of its own characteristics. Free electricity, water, and bus service for women was topped up, by both parties, this election with income support schemes for women. The BJP going to great lengths to assure the public in Delhi that freebies accruing to them under the AAP government will continue. In what seemed like a Freebie Vs Freebie fight, the BJP seemed to have pulled ahead…
By the end, AAP became just another party making big promises—to compensate for its failings.
Freebies by another name: Of course, there are multiple routes to doling out gifts. The BJP made excellent use of the union budget—specifically tax cuts for the middle class:
The Union finance minister’s last-minute tax breaks for the middle class swung the fence-sitter voters in the BJP’s favour, sealing the party’s dominance across Delhi. The majority of Delhi’s electorate falls into the Rs 7-12 lakh income bracket, and the promise of increased disposable income resonated deeply, particularly in constituencies with a high concentration of salaried professionals, small business owners, and self-employed individuals. Areas that had previously been closely contested saw a decisive shift, as middle-class voters, particularly in residential hubs and business districts, tilted toward the BJP in response to the economic relief.
Guess that’s why experts called it a ‘targeted stimulus’ package :)
Why AAP lost: Ideology, what ideology?
Kejriwal’s far-too-clever insistence on staying ideologically neutral proved to be an albatross. He refused to protect Muslims from raging Hindutva mobs during the Delhi violence. He wouldn’t speak of Dalit issues—for fear of alienating upper caste voters. The result: AAP did not offer any kind of ideological alternative—either to the BJP or any other party. That vacuum proved to be the party’s downfall:
The fact is, he was carrying no burden of principle, philosophy or ideology. A true Indian politician. But Indian politicians also, however cynical or amoral, still need some emotional fuel. It can be an ideology, even nationalism, an identity group as in caste, religion, ethnicity, language. Kejriwal had none. His politics was one-track, or monochromatic: we stand against corruption and all others are thieves. And we’ve come to change the system.
There was no higher moral ground other than his anticorruption cred—which the BJP systematically destroyed over three years. All that remained was a “transactional” plea for votes—pitching his welfare schemes as “savings of Rs 25,000 per month”—easily matched by his rival.
But, but, but: AAP is still left standing precisely because of the constituencies it betrayed. Of the 22 constituencies it won, 14 are dominated by Dalits and Muslims. The only exception is Mustafabad in North East Delhi—ground zero for the Delhi riots. The surprise BJP winner is a reputed Hindutva advocate—Mohan Singh Bisht—who defeated AAP’s Adeel Ahmad Khan by 17,578 votes—in a seat with 39.5% Muslim voters. The reason: All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) candidate Tahir Hussain who secured over 33,000 critical votes.
Why AAP lost: The Purvanchali voter
These are migrants from Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar—and are a third of the Delhi electorate. Of the 70 Assembly seats, 51 have significant Purvanchali populations—of which 27 have a majority from the region. Ignored by the BJP and Congress, they first gained attention when they swept AAP into power in 2013—and have since become a core part of its base.
But this time, the BJP won 70% of all seats dominated by these voters. The reason why they got a whole lot of love in Modi’s victory speech:
During the campaign, wherever I went, I proudly said that I am an MP from Purvanchal. The people of Purvanchal today reinforced this relationship of love and trust with energy and strength. I thank the Purvanchalis of Delhi as a Purvanchali MP.
The BJP strategy: to woo Purvanchali migrants was identical to the formula deployed in their home states—religion + sops:
The BJP promised to clean up the Yamuna and ensure the grand celebration of Chhath, one of the biggest festivals for the people of Purvanchal, involving a procession to the riverbank. The winning party also vowed to develop the riverfront as was done for the Sabarmati in Ahmedabad, and also build homes for migrants under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, a flagship housing scheme.
That said, losing their loyalty was mostly an AAP self-goal. The party failed to address their core concerns—overflowing sewers, flooded slums and safe drinking water. Instead, Kejriwal accused the BJP of smuggling in fake voters from their home states:
All those, on whose names applications were filed to remove their votes, denied that they never filed any such application. This means there is a big fraud going on... Obviously, they are bringing people from UP (Uttar Pradesh) and Bihar to create fake votes.
The bottomline: is that AAP could have held on to power if it had formed an alliance with Congress. Perhaps it can correct that error in the future. But Kejriwal’s sole ambition has never been to take on the BJP—but to tear down and replace Congress as the other national party. In election after election, he has helped the BJP destroy the grand old party. And now it has come for his head.
Reading list
- The Print has a good piece on how Brand Modi revived itself in Delhi—and Shekhar Gupta on the fall of Mr K—done in by the absence of ideology.
- The Hindu looks at his political future.
- The Hindu and The Wire are good on the Congress angle—both the absence of alliance and the future of INDIA.
- Indian Express traces BJP’s political history in Delhi.
- Both Indian Express and The Wire look at which voters remain in AAP’s camp—offering hope for the future.
- The Hindu is best on the Purvanchali vote.
- The Quint has the voter rolls manipulation investigation.
- The Telegraph profiles the man who beat Kejriwal—Parvesh Sahib Singh Verma.
