Billion Indians have no money to splurge

Written by: Aarthi Ramnath, Raghav Bikhchandani & Yash Budhwar

Billion Indians have no money to splurge

The Indian economy's most attractive lure is the size of its market—so many people with money to spend! Maybe not. A new Blume report shows that only 130-140 million people have money for ‘discretionary spending’—on non-essential items. That’s the size of Mexico. This also means 90% of the population—around one billion—don’t have money to just shop.

The not-so-aspirational Indians: There is a subset of ‘aspirational’ shoppers:

Another 300 million are “emerging” or “aspirant” consumers but they are reluctant spenders who have only just begun to open their purse strings, as click-of-a-button digital payments make it easy to transact.

But their spending was fueled by credit card debt and unsecured loans—which have faced a government crackdown.

The underlying reason: Stagnant wages and rising inflation. The middle class wallet simply can’t keep pace. That’s why festival shopping, car sales etc. have been sluggish:

As a result of stagnant real incomes, middle-class Indians don't have much left over for the kind of discretionary purchases that would power a U.S.-style consumer economy. “There used to be a middle segment, which used to be the segment that most of us fast moving consumer goods firms used to operate in, which is the middle class of the country, that seems to be shrinking,” [warned] Suresh Narayanan, chair of Nestle’s India.

A K-shaped India: Consumption in India is now being driven by the rich—but that pool is not expanding. It is ‘deepening’: “That basically means India's wealthy population is not really growing in numbers, even though those who are already rich are getting even wealthier.” As a result, the demand for luxury goods is spiralling while overall consumption drops. Over a third of new housing projects now cost Rs 2 crore+ (Rs 20 million+), while affordable housing has shrunk to just 18% of the market. Coldplay and Ed Sheeran tickets sell out in minutes but car sales are flat. Even Starbucks is struggling to expand.

The big picture: We are witnessing the “premiumisation” of India’s consumer market—where luxury brands thrive while mass-market products struggle. This is a structural problem—not a passing trend. The symptom of a flailing economy where the rich get richer—while everyone else sinks. The top 10% of Indians now hold 57.7% of national income compared with 34% in 1990. The share of the bottom half has fallen from 22.2% to 15%.

Reading list: BBC News is best in summarising the Blume Ventures Indus Valley report 2025. Reuters is excellent on the problem with India’s consumption story.

Wtf is up with measles in Texas?

The context: In early February, cases of measles were reported among Mennonites— a religious community in Gaines County. This is in Texas, where you can be exempted from childhood vaccinations for “reasons of conscience.” The disease soon spread to neighbouring New Mexico.

What happened now: Texas reported the first known death from this outbreak—an “unvaccinated school-age child.”

Why this is worrying: For starters, Donald Trump’s Health Secretary—Robert Kennedy Jr—is a notorious anti-vaxxer—who has previously claimed that “measles outbreaks have been fabricated to create fear.” So he doesn’t plan to do anything about the crisis. FYI: The total number of cases as of January is 124—compared to 285 all of last year—which witnessed three such outbreaks. This is not an isolated event, this is a trend.

Why this is a big deal: Americans are increasingly shunning MMR vaccinations—for Measles, Mumps and Rubella—which are routine for kids. To prevent an outbreak, at least 95% of people in a community need to be vaccinated. The percentage in Gaines County is 82%. In fact, just under 93% of all children in kindergarten in the US had the vaccine last fiscal year. Overall, 14 states were under 90% in that period.

A big data point to note: A recent study showed that before widespread vaccination, measles accounted for 50% of all infectious-disease deaths in children. Even now, of every 1,000 kids who get measles, at least one or two will die—and many will be hospitalised. Vox (paywalled) has lots more on the outbreak. (New York Times)

Booker Prize longlist picks ‘rebel’ Kannada novel

The International Booker honours works that are translated into English. All 13 authors on this year’s longlist are first-time nominees—from Palestine to Suriname and Rèunion. Indian lit made the cut with Kannada writer Banu Mushtaq’s ‘Heart Lamp’—translated by Deepa Bhashti.

About the book: The collection of a dozen short stories focuses on the everyday lives of women in Muslim communities across southern India. They were originally published in Kannada between 1990 and 2023. Penguin will release the book in India this April.

A Bandaya backstory: Banu Mushtaq has worked as a lawyer, journalist and activist since the 1970s. She began her writing career as part of a progressive literary movement in Karnataka known as ‘Bandaya’—which means ‘rebel’ or ‘rebellion’. It was a response to the dominance of the Hindi belt—and of Hindu upper castes. Mushtaq’s stories about Muslim women and girls is a lively correction to that exclusion:

Written in a style at once witty, vivid, colloquial, moving and excoriating, it’s in her characters — the sparky children, the audacious grandmothers, the buffoonish maulvis and thug brothers, the oft-hapless husbands, and the mothers above all, surviving their feelings at great cost — that Mushtaq emerges as an astonishing writer and observer of human nature.

What’s next: This longlist will be culled to a shortlist of six books—to be announced on April 8. The winner will be revealed on May 20, in a ceremony at London’s Tate Modern museum. The Hindu has the full 13-book longlist as well as a brief introduction to Banu Mushtaq’s work. Sahapedia has a solid cultural history lesson on the Bandaya literary movement.

what caught our eye

business & tech

SpiceJet bounces back, logging a Rs 25 crore (Rs 250 million) profit in Q3 after turbulence in the red.
BP is pumping more cash into oil and gas, slashing renewables spending in a major strategy shift to win back investors.
A judge ruled that Meta must face a lawsuit accusing it of favouring cheaper foreign hires over qualified US workers, paving the way for a potential class action.
Apple scrambles to fix a viral iPhone bug that autocorrected "racist" to "Trump," blaming it on "phonetic overlap." Well…

sports & entertainment

The ‘Wicked’ duo Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo—among others—are set to perform live at the Oscars. Also performing: K-pop star Lisa, Doja Cat, Queen Latifah and Raye.
RIP Michelle Trachtenberg. The actress—best known for her roles on ‘Buffy the Vampire Slayer’ and ‘Gossip Girl’—has passed away, aged just 39.
Speaking of Oscars: Hollywood Reporter offers its predictions—calculated using just maths.
Variety has an interesting story on how China’s ‘Ne Zha 2’ beat ‘Inside Out 2’ to become the highest-grossing animated film in history!
Activision admits to using AI-generated assets in Black Ops 6 after fans spot a six-fingered zombie Santa. The reveal comes as Steam enforces new AI disclosure rules.

health & environment

Wolves may have domesticated themselves—new research suggests natural selection, not just human breeding, played a key role in their evolution into dogs.
A new study has found that events like hospitalization, disability, and death were 54% higher with the use of generic drugs manufactured in India.
Scientists in China have found a new coronavirus in bats that could infect humans. But but but, the risk remains low. Gizmodo has everything you need to know about the virus and more.

meanwhile, in the world

A new report's findings unearth the systematic torture and humiliation of Gaza’s healthcare workers by Israeli forces, detailing arbitrary detentions, abuse, and psychological torment.
The House of Representatives passed a Republican budget paving the way for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and $2 trillion in spending reductions.
A Sudanese military aircraft crashed in Omdurman, killing at least 46 people, including women and children—one of the deadliest plane crashes in the country in decades.
Trump’s administration shut down Power Africa, ending a decade-long US push to expand electricity access across the continent.
Another day, another media restriction—WaPo’s Opinion Editor David Shipley resigned after Jeff Bezos ordered the prioritising of two topics—free markets and personal liberties—while banning any dissenting views.
Plus, Trump, enraged over a new tell-all book, is threatening to sue authors and media outlets that use anonymous sources—because nothing says transparency like lawsuits.
Panama is turning a long-used migrant smuggling boat route into an official channel as more asylum seekers give up on the US and head back south.

meanwhile, in India

In an unprecedented clampdown, accredited journalists were blocked from the Delhi assembly as the new BJP government took charge.
The Print has a good read on how exit polls have become a booming business where politics matters more than sample sizes.
Indian Express has a good read on the global money trails, overseas agents, and 32-country network behind Punjab’s ‘dunki’ routes, as uncovered by a police probe into deportee testimonies.
A Bengaluru tax tribunal order cited fake court judgments before it was quickly withdrawn—raising suspicions that AI-generated gibberish made its way into legal reasoning.
Time for an upgrade—Delhi Airport’s T2 will shut for up to five months starting April, with a runway also closing for renovation.

Five things to see

One: In yet another demonstration of his excruciatingly bad taste, Donald Trump shared an AI-generated clip that shows Gaza transformed into a beach destination—with a golden statue of Trump, a Gaza Trump tower and Elon Musk blissfully eating hummus. Suffice to say, the vid was not well-received. Also: It is stupid to troll Saudi Arabia—which is expected to pay for Gaza’s reconstruction. OTOH, it kept a bs Donald story in the headlines—which is exactly what he wants. (New York Times)

Two: In a dramatic twist, Afghanistan knocked England out of the Champions Trophy—winning by just eight runs! Ibrahim Zadran smashed 177 off 146 balls—and became the first Afghanistan batter to score a century in both the Champions Trophy and the World Cup. Azmatullah Omarzai also played exceptionally well with a five-wicket haul which catapulted the team to victory. FYI: Afghanistan has renewed hopes of entering the semi-finals from Group B—a win against Australia is required next. ESPNCricinfo has a play-by-play breakdown of the match. See the historic moment of the win below. (The Telegraph)

Three: A scene quite unbecoming of the GOAT, the Inter Miami captain grabbed a rival assistant coach, Mehdi Ballouchy, by the neck—following a heated 2-2 draw with Kansas City. Messi was fined—as was his teammate Luis Suárez who did the exact same thing in the same match. Coach Mascherano brushed it off as emotions running high—but it sure makes you wonder about ‘American soccer’. (Indian Express)

Four: Birds-of-paradise are already nature’s showstoppers, but scientists have discovered they emit a hidden glow. A new study reveals that 37 of the 45 known species light up under blue and UV light, in green and yellow hues invisible to human eyes—as you can see below. Researchers suspect these secret signals help with mating or territorial disputes. (CNN)

Five: The US Space Forces shared a photo of Earth—taken from its space plane X-37B—while it orbited high above the African continent. The image is striking primarily for offering “a rare glimpse of its shadowy X-37B space plane in orbit.” FYI: The cheesily named Space Forces is one of the lesser known branches of the military created to help guard and operate US satellites and spacecraft. (The Verge)