Israel vs Iran: The geopolitical state of play

Written by: Aarthi Ramnath, Raghav Bikhchandani & Yash Budhwar

Israel vs Iran: The geopolitical state of play

Editor’s note: It’s just how it goes. As with any war, most news reporting is based on anonymous “officials”—whose primary aim is less to share knowledge, more to shape the narrative. That story changes—subtly or not—from one news outlet to another. The reason: Most of them—irrespective of politics—tend to behave like ‘national” media—that trust and rely on their own political establishment for information. Please keep that in mind when consuming any news content.

What you need to know: Israeli attacks on Iran have intensified—and broadened to include civilian targets. The evidence: a strike on a Tehran broadcasting station—while its female anchor was on air:

Israel has also ‘warned’ citizens to move out of Tehran and its neighbouring areas—the area below is therefore ‘fair game’ if they refuse to do so:

What happens next: Presumably, Israel’s assault will become even more fierce and bloody—with no one stepping in to stop Tel Aviv.

What the US says: is fairly predictable. It is clear that the White House knew exactly what Israel planned to do—and Donald Trump has repeatedly said so. He also blames Iran for not giving up its right to enrich uranium—required for any N-bomb, but also nuclear power. It is the reason why the Washington-Tehran negotiations had stalled. And then Tel Aviv started raining down missiles…

Where is Washington?: Firmly in Israel’s corner. Trump’s latest statement essentially greenlights an all-out assault on Tehran:

Iran should have signed the “deal” I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!

Buh-bye G7: Trump is also going at it alone. The G7 summit—of wealthy countries (read US and its core allies)—is currently underway in Ottawa. Everyone expected fierce debates over the state of the Middle East. Except, Trump “abruptly” walked out the door yesterday—because he “saw a better path in the United States taking solitary action, rather than in building a consensus with the other G7 nations.”

Also telling: Washington will not sign a joint statement on Iran—which is usual at the end of these summits. According to the New York Times, the early draft “urges both Israel and Iran to halt attacks on one another.” As we know, the US is allergic to any statement that calls for a ceasefire when Israel is in the middle of bombing various parts of the Middle East—be it under Joe Biden or Trump.

Where are the US allies?: Japan is among the few to condemn Israel’s attack on Iran—apart from the Arabs—who have grown used to condemning many things without doing very much (more on them later). French President Emmanuel Macron claims the US has made Iran an offer—and contrary to everything he’s said, Trump will push for a ceasefire:

[Macron] added that he didn’t believe things would change in the next few hours, but “since the US assured they will find a ceasefire and since they can pressure Israel, things may change”.

If the Europeans are relying on Trump to do the right thing… enuf said. Though, to be fair, Donald does love to strike a deal—but has abysmally failed to do so as of now.

Where is Israel?: Bibi Netanyahu is doing his best to draw the US into the conflict. Israel has total air superiority over Iran—but doesn’t have the “bunker busters” to take out its underground nuclear facilities. This will remain Netanyahu’s end game—since Iran can’t be brought to its knees just with airstrikes—however devastating. And a ground invasion is out of the question. Iran has the largest territorial army in the Middle East. Hence a bloody stalemate:

Israel seems motivated to continue until the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, either by force or renewed negotiations. Yet Iran has shown no sign of voluntarily ending enrichment, a process crucial to building a nuclear bomb, and Israel has no known ability to destroy a pivotal enrichment site that is buried deep underground.

Where is Iran?: Tehran refuses to declare a unilateral ceasefire—or to come to the negotiating table until Tel Aviv stops with the bombing. But it is also determined not to give the US any excuse to enter the war (see: bunker busters). According to “Arab intermediaries” who spoke to the Wall Street Journal:

The Iranians know the U.S. is supporting Israel in its defense, and they are sure the U.S. is supporting Israel logistically. But they want guarantees the U.S. won’t join the attacks.

In other words, Tehran is playing for time—because it is betting that Israel can’t get stuck in a “war of attrition”—even with an upper hand. And that Tel Aviv lacks an “exit strategy” that doesn’t involve US military support.

Point to note: For all his failings, Donald Trump has shown zero appetite for military intervention. He is unlikely to change his mind unless Iran attacks American targets.

As for those Arabs: They just want it all to go away—so they can get back to business, literally:

Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman have been lobbying the U.S. to pressure Israel to stop the fighting, Arab officials said. They have warned the conflict could widen if Israel and Iran don’t return to the negotiating table—putting nearby energy assets at risk with potentially significant consequences for oil markets and the global economy.

Reading list: Wall Street Journal (splainer gift link) has an interesting exclusive based on Arab sources for a change. Associated Press via The Hindu analyses Washington’s plan to go ahead alone. New York Times has an interesting (if skewed) take on the absence of an exit ramp. The Guardian has the best overview of the latest developments in the Iran-Israel conflict.

Another bad omen for ad agencies

Will ad agencies soon go the way of dinosaurs? Maybe. The latest bad omen revealed itself at the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity—basically the Oscars of the ad world—underway this week. Once dominated by agency execs and slick ad campaigns, the spotlight this year is firmly on content creators.

The new Cannes VIPs: Influencers are no longer just posing on red carpets. They’re sitting across the table from CMOs and closing real deals—and with the biggest companies which usually prefer high-flying ad agencies to manage their brands:

While influencers already dominate the skincare and makeup industries, creators are booking lucrative deals with household goods brands. Unilever CEO Fernando Fernandez said the conglomerate would hire 20 times more influencers to pursue a social-first marketing strategy, citing that consumers feel “suspicious” of corporate branding.

The most telling stat: This will be the first year that advertising revenue on creator content is higher than ad revenue on content produced by agencies. That’s in a year where global ad budgets are shrinking due to economic uncertainty. In 2024, influencer marketing reached its highest-ever market size globally at $24 billion and is projected to grow by a further 36% to reach $33 billion this year, with big brands going all in on influencers.

The double whammy: The cutbacks from big brands come on the heels of Meta’s AI marketing push—unveiled last month. By the end of next year, businesses will be able to create their own ad campaigns: Just upload your product photo, input a goal and budget, and Meta’s AI will take care of the rest: from writing copy and generating visuals to targeting users and recommending spend. At the time, ad execs claimed the big ticket brands will never trust AI with their brands. They were sorta right. The big fish will indeed rely on humans—but of the influencer kind.

Reading list: Morning Brew has the overview on the influencer takeover. Ad Age (login required) breaks down what happened in Cannes. Bloomberg News (login required) reports on the tightening of ad budgets.

Weights, cardio… which comes first?

For years, gym trainers have made clients get on the treadmill to ‘warm up’ before they lift weights. A new study turns that conventional wisdom upside down. Strength training followed by cardio actually helps you burn more fat—especially on your tummy:

Participants who lifted weights first experienced significantly greater reductions in overall body fat and visceral fat — the type of fat most strongly linked to cardiovascular disease risk. They also increased their daily step count by approximately 3,500 steps compared to just 1,600 steps for the cardio-first group. Additionally, the weights-first approach enhanced muscular endurance and explosive strength.

The reason why: It’s all about how your body uses energy reserves:

With glycogen stores already low, when you transition to cardio, your body must rely more heavily on fat reserves for energy. It’s akin to a hybrid car switching to battery power once the petrol runs low. This metabolic shift helps explain the greater fat loss seen in the weights-first group.

The bottomline: If your top goal is fat loss, lift first, then do cardio. (The Conversation)

what caught our eye

business & tech

New York Times (login required) has a good read on how AI chatbots are sending users down conspiracy rabbit holes—with some left questioning reality itself.
An IndiGo A320 flying from Hyderabad to Chennai may have scraped its tail on landing—though the airline denies a tail strike.
Ars Technica details why writing “no AI resurrections” into your will might not stop you from becoming a grief bot after death.
A Delhi-bound Air India Dreamliner made a mid-air U-turn and landed back in Hong Kong—the reason for the diversion is still unclear.
Meta has tapped ad veteran Arun Srinivas as its new India head, following a leadership shake-up and broader rejig across South Asia.

sports & entertainment

The 68th Grammy Awards will be held on February 1, 2026, in Los Angeles—nominations drop November 7, along with a few rule changes to watch out for.
Jafar Panahi’s Cannes-winning ‘It Was Just An Accident’ has bagged top honors at the 72nd Sydney Film Festival.

health & environment

A recent study has found that humans experience two drastic lurches forward— one at the average age of 44, and the other at the average age of 60.
The race to mine metals used to manufacture EV batteries has stripped forests and polluted waters in one of the most biodiverse marine habitats on Earth—Indonesia’s Raja Ampat archipelago.

meanwhile, in the world

Wall Street Journal (splainer gift link), in an exclusive, says that a bruised Iran is quietly asking Israel to cool it—and open to talks, as long as the U.S. stays out of the fight.
The latest edition of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) Yearbook says that the world is on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race.
Also in the yearbook: India edging past Pakistan in nukes and missile tech, while China races ahead and arms control norms unravel across the region.
Trump’s travel ban may soon get a lot bigger—with 36 more countries, mostly in Africa, facing the heat if they don’t comply in 60 days.
Macron has visited Greenland in a show of solidarity with Denmark meant to send a signal of European resolve after the Donald threatened to take over the island.
Saudi Arabia has executed journalist Turki Al-Jasser—after he spent seven years on charges of terrorism and treason over his social media posts.
Donald Trump’s sons have launched Trump Mobile—a $47.45-a-month phone plan and a $499 gold smartphone, etched with the American flag and an ego to match.
In light of a viral online trend over Diet Coke, Fast Company breaks down what a ‘fridge cigarette’ is.
GQ profiles the dads getting tattoos of their kids’ drawings

meanwhile, in India

Newslaundry (login required) has published the second part of its series on how online misogyny is fuelling a wider web of religious extremism and nationalist radicalisation in India.
As tensions flare between Israel and Iran, India has begun relocating its citizens in Tehran to safer areas—an evacuation plan is in the works.
Indians are skipping legacy media for AI news summaries and YouTube influencers, says Reuters.
An Indian-origin man in Adelaide has died days after an Australian cop allegedly knelt on his neck.
The Centre has issued a gazette notification confirming that the next Census will be carried out in 2027.
Bihar’s next election will see several firsts—from phone deposit counters to fewer voters per booth—as the Election Commission rolls out new measures to make voting quicker and more accessible.

Three things to see

One: The Paris Air Show is the world’s biggest aerospace and defence expo. This year, authorities shut down the main Israeli company stands. The reason? The companies put their offensive weapons on display—which were banned this year. Also this: “[G]iven France's diplomatic stance, and ‘in particular its... very great concern about Gaza’, the government had felt it unacceptable for attack weapons to be on show.” In turn, Israeli weapons manufacturers registered their righteous protest—see below. (Reuters)

Two: Jay Shah is having a main character moment in the new ICC video of the World Test Championship final where South Africa scored a historic win. Out of 23 shots used in the 45-second long video, he appears in 11 of them—the same number as the champions lol. (Wisden)

Three: This is Hillang Yajik—a 25-year-old from Arunachal Pradesh—who has just won gold at the 15th South Asian Bodybuilding and Physique Sports Championships 2025 in Bhutan. She’s the first ever female athlete from the Indian state to clinch a gold medal at the international level. We love it! (Times of India)