In 2019, the saffron party swept 25 out of 28 seats—and more than 50% of the vote in the state. It’s hard to replicate that kind of success—and the stakes in 2024 are even higher. In part one, we look at why losing ground in Karnataka has serious implications for the BJP, Narendra Modi, and the Hindutva ideology. In part two, we will look at what the wildly divergent opinion polls say—and the caste dynamics that are likely to determine the outcome.
Researched by: Nirmal Bhansali
First, some basic deets
Here’s where we are on the eve of the first phase of the Karnataka elections on Friday—and how we got here.
The 2019 Lok Sabha election: The BJP swept 25 seats and 51.7% of the vote share. Congress and the only strong regional party JD(S) could only manage one each. The remaining seat was won by an independent—who has now allied herself with the BJP.
The coup: As is usual in Indian politics, the netas abandoned ship for the winning side. Over the course of a single week, 10 Congress and 3 JD(S) MLAs resigned—and included some of the biggest names. BJP swept into power—snatching the gaddi from the JD(S)-Congress alliance—which detonated soon after.
The reversal of fortunes: In an astonishing show of strength, Congress walloped the BJP in the 2023 Karnataka elections (see: this Big Story). The BJP was the single largest party in 2018—with 104 seats—just nine short of a simple majority. In 2023, the party’s total plummeted to an abysmal 66. OTOH, the Congress jumped from 78 to 135.
So what happens next? Quite frankly, we don’t know—but the stakes are very high for both the BJP and Congress—even if the outcome of the larger election seems to be sealed. For Congress, Karnataka is the only remaining lifeline—for a party that has long been teetering on the precipice of irrelevance on the national stage. Enuf said. But the stakes for the BJP—whose larger victory is assured—are more complicated. A weak showing threatens a lot more than that promise of ‘char sau paar’.
Why Karnataka matters: The dominance of Delhi
The Modi-led BJP has won and lost many state elections since it first gained power in 2014. But its hold on New Delhi has been iron-clad—and growing with each Lok Sabha election. Hence, all the talk about ‘char sau paar’.
The long term trend in Karnataka has been similar. BJP may have won and lost the CM throne—but its Lok Sabha total has steadily ticked upwards. Over the past four national elections, it has gone from 18 to 19, then 17, and finally 25 seats in 2019. Its vote share has been steadily expanding as well. As one Kannada columnist explains:
Karnataka’s voters have preferred the BJP from 2004 because they are consciously voting on issues of nationalism. When it comes to the State, their muddled choice reflects a commitment to a secular milieu, but they have succumbed to the narrative built by the BJP against the Congress when it comes to national issues.
So to lose ground in a Lok Sabha election would undermine the BJP’s claim of national dominance.
The bigger picture: It is going to be mighty hard to better the BJP’s 2019 total of 25 seats without a strong showing in Karnataka. The party relies on its image as the ultimate political juggernaut—that grows more powerful and inevitable with each passing election. Resistance is futile etc etc. So a reversal in numbers or vote share will ruin that myth of invincibility. The BJP often wins because everyone expects it to win.
Why Karnataka matters: A test of Modi magic
The BJP has successfully doubled down on the Modi card in every state election—putting him front and centre, whether or not they have a strong local leader (See: Madhya Pradesh). And it’s worked very well for the most part—even in Karnataka.
In 2014, six out of 10 Karnataka voters who voted for the BJP said they voted for Modi—the highest for any state in that election. In fact, Kannadiga voters began consistently splitting their vote—choosing a different party for the state and the nation—in the Modi era. So of course, BJP City Unit’s General Secretary Virupakshappa confidently says:
People, especially young voters, are interested in what Modi ji is saying. People are saying, ‘state ke liye Siddaramaiah, desh ke liye Modi’. We will win because we have Modi. Modi’s guarantee is security of the country.
The election is being framed as a battle between Modi and Siddaramaiah—one’s vision of development (vikas) versus the latter’s ‘five guarantees’, the Congress’ highly popular welfare schemes.
The bulletproof Modi: Even when the BJP was trounced in 2023—despite Modi’s fervent campaigning—analysts still gave him credit for ‘saving’ the party’s 36% vote share:
While this last-minute effort by Modi may not be enough to help the BJP retain the state (Karnataka has a long history of changing governments), it augurs well for the party ahead of next year’s Lok Sabha elections.
As of now, many believe his charisma remains undented by the humiliating Assembly loss. But any serious loss of ground in a national election will be seized upon as a sign of Modi fatigue.
Point to note: Siddaramaiah has already declared the Modi wave as over—framing the meaning of a poor BJP performance, in advance. More interestingly, Congress is trying to cast Modi’s larger-than-life stature as a problem:
[T]he Congress has suggested that having BJP MPs at the Centre does not help Karnataka since they tend to be beholden to the PM and are unlikely to raise issues concerning the state such as tax devolution, water resources, and disaster relief. “The BJP MPs quake when they meet the PM. We need MPs who can raise the concerns of the people of the state,” Siddaramaiah said earlier this month in Mysuru.
Why Karnataka matters: The Hindutva weapon
Karnataka is the only South Indian state where the BJP has a solid base of support. Ever since 2004—come what may—it always wins 13 seats in every Lok Sabha elections. And it seems to have cemented its vote share of 36%—which it retained despite the whipping in the 2023 Assembly elections. This is the real BJP foothold in South India—and it is fortified by Hindutva ideology.
Weakness in the heartland: Three seats in coastal Karnataka—Dakshina Kannada, Uttara Kannada, and Udupi-Chikmagalur—form the party’s Hindutva bastion in the state. All three sitting MPs from these seats are hardcore rightwing leaders—Shobha Karandlaje, Anantkumar Hegde, and Naleen Kumar Kateel. And they each won their elections by a comfortable margin. In the Assembly elections, however, Congress made inroads into this deeply saffron territory—winning key seats within the three constituencies. This doesn’t mean it can repeat the performance in the Lok Sabha elections, but it’s raised red flags for the BJP.
Point to note: The party was worried enough to drop its three Hindutva stalwarts—and opt for fresh faces. Take for example, the replacement of six-term MP Anantkumar Hegde in Uttara Kannada—with a relative moderate. One reason: Congress won five out of eight Assembly seats that form the Lok Sabha constituency. In fact, a recently expelled BJP leader—former Deputy CM KS Eshwarappa—angrily claimed that “all those people who are talking about Hindutva have been sidelined.”
But, but, but: When Modi came to town this past weekend, he beat the old drum in the Hindutva heartland:
The kind of thoughts and ideology being promoted by the Congress government is very dangerous. Our daughters are being attacked, bombs are exploding in markets, and people are being attacked for listening to religious songs. I urge my brothers and sisters to stay very alert of the Congress.
And state BJP leaders like Hegde have gone even further when needed—nicknaming the CM ‘Sidaramulla Khan’, for example.
Adding to the chorus: BJP’s new-found ally JD(S)—which is desperately trying to remain relevant by riding its saffron coattails:
JD(S) has also boldly shifted away from “secular” narratives and has seamlessly adopted the themes of “national development”, “love jihad” and “Ram Temple”, and is relying almost completely on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘image’ to help them sail through.
A new Congress strategy: The party has long flailed in the face of the Hindutva ideology—often opting for a ‘soft’ variety to avoid appearing too ‘sickular’. But its state unit seems to have latched on to a new gameplan—wielding the South Indian identity as a counter-weapon. For example: responding to the union budget in February, Congress’ lone Karnataka MP DK Suresh said:
Today, we are seeing development funds being given to North Indian states. We are seeing a lot of injustice. If we don’t condemn it, in the coming days we might be forced to demand a separate country due to the imposition on us by Hindi regions.
By the way, he is the Deputy CM DK Shivakumar’s brother.
Point to note: Most experts don’t think arguments about Centre-state finances resonate with the voter. But if the ‘BJP is anti-Kannadiga’ (or ‘anti-South India’) rhetoric gains traction, it will pose a serious threat to the party’s Hindutva strategy—and broader push into South India.
The bottomline: In part two, we will look at what the wildly polarised surveys say—and caste dynamics that are far more likely to determine the outcome.
Reading list
India Today and Times of India lay out the argument in favour of a BJP win. For more background, read our Big Stories on the landslide Congress win and the caste/communal politics in the state. Indian Express looks at how Congress is dealing with BJP’s ‘saffron wall’. Moneycontrol and The Hindu offer a good analysis of the big picture. The Hindu lays out the 13 seats that form the BJP’s bastion—and the media strategies of the two parties.
