The formula behind a BJP ticket

Being a successful MP with landslide votes in your kitty did not mean much when it came to getting a party ticket this season. Case in point: “There are over 100 other BJP MPs—over a third of the total contingent of 303—who have been denied [a] ticket this time.”

Why is this happening?: The Print’s political editor D K Singh has a couple of theories. There’s no guarantee that a new face might actually win a constituency, compared to an entrenched politician. Therefore, even past BJP MPs are bewildered by the party’s decision to deny them tickets and have been offered strange reasons:

“I spoke to the state president of the party and national leaders. They said that in the survey conducted by the party…my feedback was not found to be good. When I told them that I had got more than six lakh votes in the last election, they said the votes you got were not because of you, but because of ‘upar wale log’ (read PM Modi). Self-respect is everything for me.”

However, new tickets do translate into new faces with a winnability factor—who may refresh jaded constituencies suffering from streaks of anti-incumbency. For example, BJP stalwart Meenakshi Lekhi was replaced by the late Sushma Swaraj’s daughter Bansuri for the New Delhi constituency. In the last two general elections, the party has won all of the capital's seven parliamentary seats, eclipsing over 50% of the vote share. 

Controlling the future: Removing sitting MPs from their constituencies may also be a way to control who emerges as a top leader for the party in the future. Winnability alone won’t win you the top brass’ favour. 

For example, rumours that the party sought a 75-year age limit on CM candidates (to help promote fresh faces) might have been used to push Haryana’s Manohar Lal Khattar’s to step down as chief minister. After all, long-term and popular chief ministers automatically become contenders for the top job in Delhi. Similar things may be happening to former Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis—once touted as a prime ministerial candidate, Fadnavis’ stature is now apparently languishing as the state’s deputy chief minister. 

The bottom line: As Singh pithily sums up (to the detriment of a certain former health minister): 

The BJP is bringing up a whole new set of MPs, CMs, ministers, MLAs, and office-bearers of the organisation at the Centre and in states. They will p[l]ay a crucial role if and when PM Modi hangs up his boots and there is a battle for succession. Whoever commands their loyalty is likely to have an edge if Modi decides to remain neutral. That should explain this thrust on promoting new faces at every level. You must be curious about the brain behind these changes, someone with the ability and clout to carry them out. All I can say is that it can’t be JP Nadda.

The Print has more.

Criminal minds: The election edition

Around 252 candidates contesting the upcoming polls have criminal charges against them, according to a new report by the Association for Democratic Reforms and National Election Watch. 

How bad is it? The report surveyed 1,618 of 1,625 candidates contesting and found: 

• 19 had attempted murder charges filed against them 
• Seven were charged with actual murder
• 161 declared cases of serious crimes charges
• 35 were charged with hate speech
• 18 faced charges of crimes against women
• 15 of the 1,618 were actually convicted

The best and the worst: The party with the least number of charged candidates was the Bahujan Samaj Party—with 11 out of 86 candidates declaring cases. The worst performing: the Rashtriya Janata Dal. All four of its candidates have criminal cases filed against them.

Who’s the wealthiest of them all? There are 450 crorepati MPs contesting the first phase. Here are the numbers: 

• BJP: 69
• INC: 49 
• AIADMK: 35 
• DMK: 21
• BSP: 18
• TMC: 4
• RJD: 4

As for average assets: South India does itself proud in a hotly contested competition: 

• AIADMK: Its candidates have the unique distinction of having the highest average assets—standing at Rs 35.61 crore.
• BJP: Its average assets across candidates stands at Rs 22.37 crore. 
• DMK: Its average assets across candidates stands at Rs 31.22 crore.

The top dogs: Are also from the southern half of the subcontinent: 

• Congress: The wealthiest candidate, Nakul Nath contesting from Maharashtra, has assets worth Rs 716.94 crore.
• AIADMK: Ashok Kumar, contesting from Tamil Nadu, is worth Rs 662.46 crore. 
• DMK: Contesting from Tamil Nadu, Devanathan Yadav T is worth Rs 304.92 crore. 

The Hindu has a good summary of the report. 

A very important pre-poll survey

The think tank Lokniti-CSDS released the results of its latest edition of the National Election Survey—which they have been publishing for every Lok Sabha election since 1967. It is one of the most comprehensive pre-poll surveys in the country. The NES 2024 polled 10,000 participants in 19 states on key election issues. Here are some key conclusions: 

On what matters: The most important is unemployment—which comes in at 27%, followed by rise in prices (23%) and development (13%). Corruption and Ram Mandir was only picked by 8%—and Hindutva by 2%. Why this is striking: it was a key concern for only 11% in 2019. Also: rural voters were more likely to pick it as top concern—which would worry any ruling party. Reminder: an estimated 83% of the unemployed in our country are under the age of 30. 

On development: Around 15% of the respondents say there has been no development in the past five years—and 32% say that development has only benefited the rich. But a solid 48% say there has been development for everyone—a slight drop from 2019 (51%). Notably, this view was more popular among the rich (50%) and the middle class (55%).

On religion: Here’s the really good news. An overwhelming majority (79%) subscribe to the idea that India belongs to all religions—and not just Hindus. They also say India must remain a country where people following different religions can freely live and practise their faith. Data points to note: “Nearly eight in every 10 Hindus said that they have faith in religious pluralism. Only 11% of Hindus said that they think that India is a nation of Hindus.”

On BJP’s record: These are the most interesting results. On the revocation of Article 370, only 34% support it. But 22% had no opinion on the issue—and another 24% didn’t even know of the Article. Another 63% had no clue about the G20 summit. The trend remained the same on the controversial Uniform Civil Code:

According to the survey, nearly three in ten (29%) voters believe that the UCC will empower women and provide greater equality and justice to them, whereas two in ten (19%) voters express their concerns by stating that the UCC might interfere with religious traditions by mixing personal beliefs and the legal framework. At the same time, a little over one in four (26%) chose not to express an opinion on the matter, and a similar proportion of voters indicated that they were not aware of the UCC.

The main takeaway: The results underline the vast chasm between what matters to the voters—and what matters to the media. The Hindu has all the results—on development, important issues, religion and BJP’s record.

Caste maths calculations in West Bengal

The Trinamool Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party are aggressively wooing electorates in West Bengal’s Cooch Behar, Jalpaiguri, Alipurduar, who are all set to cast their vote next Friday. However, BJP’s Nishith Pramanik and TMC’s Jagadish Chandra Burma Basunia are relying on eerily similar rally cries to bring in the votes. 

Both are highlighting the success of their parties’ respective welfare programs—although the region’s caste maths may likely decide which message delivers. 

But first, tell me more about this contest: Pramanik and Basunia are from the Rajbongshi community, recognised as a Scheduled Caste in Bengal. Also: at 38, Pramanik is one of the Modi government’s youngest ministers—serving as the Union Minister of State for Home Affairs and Youth Affairs since 2021. He is the Cooch Behar MP.

And what about the voting patterns?: The BJP has been successful in these northern districts. Pramanik won the Cooch Behar seat by 50,000 votes in the 2019 general elections, while the party swept the district during the 2021 Assembly polls. The crucial insight here, as always, comes down to caste: the Rajbongshis, who dominate this part of the state, have been wooed by both the BJP and the TMC. 

So, does the TMC have a chance? Pramanik is hawking the Prime Minister’s vikas pitch to voters, adding that the party’s schemes cater to everyone, regardless of their religion. He’s also hinted that horrific sexual violence against women—like those that recently transpired in West Bengal’s Sandeskhali—may return if the TMC is brought to power (more on that in our Big Story). 

On the flip side, Basunia is campaigning off the back of TMC Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s flagship welfare schemes. For example, Basunia is promising eager crowds that the stipend for the Lakshmir Bhandar scheme—which provides financial assistance to poor women—will be increased from Rs. 1,000 to 2,000. While acknowledging past losses in the district, Basunia is telling voters that only Banerjee has brought welfare to the districts—and that Modi won’t. Point to note: our past editions have explained how the Centre manages to use tax structures to monopolise the delivery of welfare schemes to India’s states. 

So what’s the differentiating factor?: Caste allegiances. According to Basunia, the Rajbongshis have switched teams, and are now courting the TMC, following a slew of measures to curry the community’s favour. “At the PM’s April 4 address in Cooch Behar, there were no yellow Rajbongshi flags, unlike 2019,” Basunia claims. Only time will tell if this prediction is actually true. (Indian Express) 

A list of good reads

One: Association for Democratic Reforms reports on the candidates contesting across states in the first phase of the polls. 

Two: The Hindu notes that Tamil Nadu has a history of stitching unlikely alliances for Lok Sabha elections.  

Three: Scroll shifts focus and asks if India is ready to hold a general election in record-breaking summer temperatures. 

Four: Historian Pratinav Anil in Unherd has a thought-provoking essay on why Indian democracy is in trouble.