Israel unleashed: The bombing of… everyone

Editor’s note: Last night, Israel launched a series of air raids on two towns in Yemen—home to Houthi rebels funded by Iran. Since October 7, the militia have launched missiles at Israel and captured ships in the Red Sea—in solidarity with Palestine. Israel continues to bomb Lebanon—at the time of publication.

I don’t know much about Hezbollah…

It is a Shiite Muslim organisation based in Lebanon. It is both an armed militia—and a political party. The United States and its allies—including Israel—label Hezbollah as a terrorist group. Its history is inextricably entwined with the Israel-Palestine conflict. 

How it began: In 1946, Lebanon becomes an independent nation—after 23 years of French occupation. Political power is divided among three religious groups: a Sunni Muslim is prime minister, a Maronite Christian is president, and a Shiite Muslim is the speaker of Parliament. As expected, the arrangement falls apart—and the country is in the midst of a bloody civil war by the 1970s .

Enter Palestine: In 1947, the UN votes to create two separate states: Israel and Palestine. A year later in 1948, when the British just up and leave—Israel decides to take matters into its own hands. Palestinians are forced out of their homes—in an event now referred to as the Nakba. Tens of thousands of them flee to Lebanon—where they become embroiled in the civil war. The Muslims support the PLO—the Christians do not.

The birth of Hezbollah: Israel invades Lebanon periodically to root out PLO fighters across the border—in 1978 and again in 1982. But this time, Ayatollah Khomeini and his Shiite regime is in power in Iran. Tehran funds and organises the resistance to the Israelis—resulting in the creation of Hezbollah:

Under the name “Islamic Jihad”, this coalition went on to launch massive suicide bombings against the invaders and then against US and French peacekeepers, killing hundreds. Three years later, the coalition had been melded by Iran into an organisation called Hezbollah, the party of God. In 1985, Hezbollah published its main manifesto, lambasting the US, the USSR and calling for the destruction of Israel.

A bloody history: Hezbollah—which means ‘Party of God’—soon earns a bloody and formidable reputation. It executes the infamous 1983 suicide bombing of US and French barracks in Beirut—killing more than 300 people. In 1992, Hezbollah bombs the Israeli embassy in Argentina—killing 29.

About Nasrallah: Born in 1960, Hassan Nasrallah became a militant during the civil war in the 70s. His links to Iran date back to his time at an Iraqi seminary—which was also home to an exiled Khomeini. When Hezbollah was formed, Nasrallah was an ordinary soldier—who worked his way up the ladder to become its leader in 1992—at the age of 32. His greatest claim to fame—forcing Israel’s retreat from Lebanon in 2000. It also made him a hero to all Muslims in the Middle East—to Sunni and Shia alike.

Point to note: Hezbollah is powerful but not popular. Over recent decades, Nasrallah has slowly recast Hezbollah as a political—rather than terrorist organisation. It has 13 seats in the Lebanese parliament—and provides infrastructure, health-care, schools etc. in areas under its control. But, but, but: Very few Lebanese—be it Muslim or not—support Hezbollah—which they blame for the severe economic crisis that has crippled Lebanon. 

Quote to note: Today, Hezbollah is—in essence—an Iranian proxy. In 2016, Nasrallah said: “Hezbollah’s budget, everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and rockets, comes from the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Ergo, its response to Israel’s assassination of its leader will be determined in Tehran—not Beirut.

And what did Israel do now? Just the highlights, please

Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging rockets and cross-border fire since October 7. Some phases have been hotter than others. The rest of the world has been worried about the Gaza invasion turning into a regional war. However, the two sides seemed to be holding steady—careful not to turn up the dial. Iran especially has been eager not to escalate. There’s been lots of sabre-rattling—for example, when Tel Aviv took out top leaders of Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. But not much escalation. 

Tel Aviv makes a move: Then everything changed two weeks ago:

• On September 17, hundreds of handheld pagers of Hezbollah members exploded at the same time across Lebanon and Syria—as part of a covert Israeli operation.
• The next day, the same happened with hundreds of walkie-talkies owned by Hezbollah operatives.
• When Nasrallah promised “retribution”, the Israelis started bombing Lebanon. On the first day, there were 70 air strikes.
• By September 24—Tuesday—Tel Aviv had killed more than 490 people—including more than 90 women and children. As of September 28—Saturday—that number was 1,030—including 156 women and 87 children.

The end of Nasrallah: The most critical air strike—launched on Friday—took out the most important target: Hassan Nasrallah. A rather poetic Wall Street Journal report describes the attack so:

Around dusk, explosions shook the city above. Israel’s air force struck the bunker with about 80 tons of bombs, according to several people familiar with the situation. The attack used a series of timed, chained explosions to penetrate the subterranean bunker, a senior Israeli military official said. When it was over, a pillar of orange smoke rose above Beirut. And Hassan Nasrallah, the fierce and charismatic Islamist who had led Hezbollah for more than three decades, was dead.

For maximum PR impact: Tel Aviv released a photo of Bibi Netanyahu giving the fateful order—from a hotel room in New York:

He had just finished giving a “defiant” speech to the UN General Assembly—championing Israel’s right to ‘defend’ itself: “We will not accept a terror army perched on our northern border able to perpetrate another October 7-style massacre.” 

Point to note: It was a bit ruined by the fact that he was addressing a nearly empty room—with most members having staged a walkout. Never mind. He’d already dismissed the UN itself as a “swamp of anti-Semitic bile”—a haven for foreign leaders who “stand with evil against good.” Makes you wonder if he came all the way to New York simply to stage a giant ‘f*** you’ to the world—on US soil. 

So what does this mean? End of Hezbollah?

Look, the Middle East is one giant inkblot test. Everyone sees what they want to. Here’s how various parties have interpreted this shocking turn of events. 

Main hoon Bigg Boss: This is, of course, Tel Aviv’s interpretation of what it has achieved. It has shown that the October 7 attack was a fluke—Tel Aviv will never be blindsided again: “The core of Israeli security doctrine is to bring the war to the enemy”—and that’s what it has done with Hezbollah. It is as powerful and unbeatable as it has ever been. In the words of the Jerusalem Post:

Now Israel is returning to giving the impression that the region has had of the country for the past decades. The infiltration of Hezbollah, the exploding pagers, the elimination of Hezbollah commanders – all of this is seen as signs of Israel’s impressive capabilities. This is important in a region where strength is respected. Israel needs to appear strong or countries will not respect it and may think it is weak and consider working with its enemies or hedging their bets.

Let’s move along, everybody: Nothing to see here—that’s the Washington take. Yes, badly-behaved Bibi failed to warn them of the attack on Nasrallah. This just days after the US proudly unveiled a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah. Yes, the Americans are very, very upset about it. But hey, Nasrallah was one of the bad guys:

US President Joe Biden described Nasrallah's death as a measure of justice for what he called his many victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis and Lebanese, and said the U.S. fully supported Israel's right to self-defence. But when asked if an Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon was inevitable, Biden told reporters on Saturday: "It's time for a ceasefire."

In other words: can we just get back to those stalled out peace talks? Besides, Kamala has an election to win in November. 

The best summary: of the shared Israeli/US position—beneath all that facile bickering—is this:

What links these two campaigns [against Gaza and Lebanon] is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s apparent view that Israel can achieve long-standing security through a policy of military superiority coupled with uninhibited offensive operations. The United States tacitly supports this position through its feeble criticism and almost unlimited supply of arms to Israel. 

 

As Gaza has begun to show—and as another war with Lebanon, if it comes, will likely reaffirm—this approach amounts to scorching the earth in neighbouring lands in the deluded hope that Israel can kill enough of the “bad guys,” irrespective of collateral damage, to achieve peace.

Enuf said. 

But, but, but: Washington’s delusion may also prove to be its downfall. Bibi has decisively proved the United States can be simply ignored—and with impunity. It is unlikely that the US’ superpower status will ever recover. Cue experts bemoaning the emergence of a dangerous “à la carte world order.”

Saving face or showing grace? Until now, Tehran claimed Hezbollah could defend itself. But Tel Aviv seems to have called that bluff. So now what? Middle East experts worry that Iran will be forced to save face:

If it becomes clear (to Iran) that Hezbollah actually cannot defend itself following the bombing in Beirut, particularly if Nasrallah himself was killed, then the Iranian justification for staying out of the war has collapsed. At that point, Iran’s credibility with the rest of its partners in the Axis (of regional militant groups) will risk collapsing if Tehran does not react.

Over the past six months, Israel has blithely struck at Iran’s allies—including Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria. These are the very foundations of Tehran’s power in the region. If Israel dismantles Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran is in great danger of becoming a geopolitical nobody—which is the Tel Aviv plan. 

But, but, but: Most experts are convinced that Iran will stop well short of triggering an all-out war. The biggest reason: Tehran is working very hard to come in from the cold—trying to persuade Western leaders to lift sanctions:

His foreign minister, Sayeed Abbas Araghchi, had just spent a full week in New York on the sidelines of the UN general assembly, meeting European politicians such as Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock and the British foreign secretary, David Lammy, in an attempt to persuade them to reopen talks to restore the nuclear deal that was sealed in 2015 – and Donald Trump tore up in 2018. 

But if the US and its allies keep being shown for fools by Tel Aviv, Iran may decide it has nothing to lose.

Hail Mary time? It’s all very good to take out Nasrallah with a couple of US-made bunker busters. Hezbollah will prove far more difficult to decimate:

Hezbollah is probably the world’s most heavily armed nonstate paramilitary force, with tens of thousands of troops and an extensive missile arsenal, military experts say. In 2006, Israeli officials estimated Hezbollah had about 12,000 rockets and missiles. Qassem Qassir, a Lebanese analyst with knowledge of Hezbollah, said the group’s stockpile had swelled to 150,000 before October 7.

These are advanced missiles secured from Iran—which are very good dupes of Israeli weapons. That leads us to…

The big question: Should Hezbollah wait for Tel Aviv to launch a ground invasion? Or will the Israeli air strikes take out most of its arsenal in advance? Leaving Hezbollah toothless when the tanks roll in. But many experts do not think that Israel has the capacity to eliminate Hezbollah. Taking a single Nasrallah won’t bring it down: 

“That doesn’t mean the organization is paralyzed,” [Amal Saad] added. “Hezbollah is an organization that was built to absorb these types of shocks… it’s built to be resilient and outlast individual leaders.”

Hezbollah may therefore “exercise strategic patience” even if Iran does not sweep in to save them. 

The great Catch-22: The more successful Israel is in destroying Hezbollah, the more it pressures Iran to jump into battle:

Still, if Hezbollah is seriously degraded, “Tehran may face a situation in which it will conclude that war is at its doorstep whether it chooses it or not and that it is, as a result, better off responding before Hezbollah is further weakened,” [Trita Parsi] said.

The bottomline: This line by Washington Post editor David Ignatius sums up the Western view of Israel. Collateral carnage is just stupidity ke side effects:

But I’ve seen Israel make some recurring mistakes, as well. Those are agonising to watch if, like me, you think of Israel as an outpost of democracy in the Middle East and, in the words of the prophet Isaiah, “a light unto the nations.”

There is worry about consequences—but for Israel and America—not Lebanon. Because, well, democracy. Of course, that may prove to be Washington’s greatest stupidity of all. 

Reading list

CNN and The Guardian are best on what’s next for the key stakeholders involved. Jerusalem Post sums up the Israeli establishment view. BBC News and The Guardian profile Nasrallah. Council of Foreign Relations has background on Hezbollah—while The Conversation looks at its popularity (or lack thereof). New York Times via The Telegraph captures the great anguish over the ‘superpower vacuum’ among foreign policy wonks. A good read: This scathing Hindu editorial calling out Israel as a ‘rogue state’.