And we’re off to the races!
Friday marked the first—and biggest—of the seven poll phases in the 2024 Lok Sabha. Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Manipur, J&K, Chhattisgarh, Tripura, and Uttar Pradesh were amongst the 21 states & UTs where 102 seats were up for grabs.
These constituencies were a close contest in 2019: What we know today as the National Democratic Alliance and INDIA alliance won 46 seats each, with the NDA’s vote share having a slight edge (43%) over the Congress-led opposition alliance (39%).
In Uttar Pradesh, as Sanjay Kumar explains:
“Of the eight Lok Sabha seats of Western UP… 5 have been held by the BSP. Hence, stakes are high for the BSP [to defend] these seats. Overall, there may not have been big changes in these 102 seats, but there is a big change in alliance pattern in UP between 2019 and 2024. In 2019, the BSP was in alliance with the Samajwadi Party, while in 2024, BSP is contesting elections alone while SP has formed an alliance with Congress. The big question is, can BSP manage to hold on to its tally?”
Average turnout over 65%: For the first phase, Tripura had the highest turnout (80.17%), followed by West Bengal (77.57%). Bihar recorded the lowest turnout (47.49%).
The 10 states/UTs featured: Tamil Nadu (39), Rajasthan (12), Uttar Pradesh (8), Madhya Pradesh (6), Uttarakhand (5), Maharashtra (5), Assam (5), Bihar (4), West Bengal (3), Meghalaya (2), Arunachal Pradesh (2), Manipur (2), and one each in Nagaland, Mizoram, Tripura, Chhattisgarh, Puducherry, Sikkim, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Jammu and Kashmir, and Lakshadweep.
Point to note: 89 constituencies across 13 states will be contested on April 26, in Phase 2 of the 44-day election. (The Hindu)
All eyes on Manipur
On Saturday: Manipur’s Chief Electoral Officer announced that fresh polls will be held in 11 booths in Inner Manipur on April 22. Reports of firing, voter intimidation, and destruction of EVMs at some polling centres led the Congress to initially demand repolls in 47 booths on Friday.
Booth capture(d): On Friday, the ECI said the first phase of polling was “largely peaceful”. Voters in Inner Manipur will beg to differ, if these armed men outside polling booths are anything to go by: (Deccan Herald)
The ballot returns to the Valley
Context: J&K has been under the Centre’s rule since the PDP-BJP government fell in June 2018. The last time anybody voted was a decade ago, in the 2014 assembly polls. Three seats are currently with the National Conference and two with the BJP. All major parties in J&K have made the abrogation of Article 370 a central plank.
What happened: On Friday, 65% of the total voters in Udhampur cast their ballot, in what was the first of five phases (there’s one for each parliamentary constituency) in the Union Territory.
Udhampur’s turnout is an encouraging first step for the state; districts like Pulwama and Shopian in the Srinagar constituency have a separatist history that has seen instances of elections boycotted. Regional leaders are coming together to encourage voters to turn up in the region that goes to polls on May 13 :
“With key separatist leaders such as Yasin Malik being imprisoned in Tihar jail and Syed Ali Geelani having passed away, separatist politics is not expected to influence the elections for the first time. Separatists political parties have virtually vanished from Kashmir's political landscape.”
Meanwhile, the voters in a village in J&K’s Doda district—where more than half of the population faces hearing and speaking challenges—warn of boycotting all future elections if their demands for basic amenities are not met. (Outlook)
Survey says… BJP’s gonna win!
The CSDS conducts the most comprehensive and reliable pre-election survey in India. It showed that the BJP has a comfortable 12% lead over the INDIA alliance. 40% of the respondents said they would vote for the party. In fact, the BJP could even improve its vote share.
The PM Choice: Modi-ji remains the most popular choice for PM—with a huge 21-point lead over Rahul Gandhi. According to his supporters, Modi’s most notable achievement was building the Ram Mandir. Less than 10% mentioned any other factor. In fact, voters did not credit creating jobs as an achievement—and are visibly unhappy about unemployment and mehengai.
Karnataka, Kerala up next: The BJP seems to have made gains in South India—where support has jumped from 18% in 2019 to 25% right now. That said, the BJP does better when there is only Congress on the other side. When there is a three-way split with a regional party, that support drops by half. So, that bodes well for Karnataka. But not so much for the other states like Kerala where there are strong regional parties. (The Hindu)
Digital ads FTW: CSDS also studied 900 ads being run for 24 hours on March 18 across Google platforms. While the BJP posted 1,111 ads on the day, INC posted an unenthusiastic 10. The report found that the BJP spent a disproportionately high amount on ads focusing on infrastructure and developmental projects, especially in Odisha. The targeting, theme, and cost of these ads may hold clues to parties’ engagement strategies with specific parts of the electorate. (The Hindu)
A list of good reads
One: Shoaib Daniyal in the Scroll explores why political parties can use appeals to religion in their campaigns even though it’s barred under law.
Two: OpenAI prohibits the use of its technology for election campaigns/targeted messaging, Hera Rizwani found 8 chatbots in the GPT Store specifically built for elections in India.
Three: CASI Penn’s interview with Yamini Aiyar on the BJP's “techno” welfare state, the shift from a rights-based paradigm, and the creation of a 'labharthi varg' (beneficiary class).
Four: Rest of World tells the fascinating story of how Praveen Khandelwal, the BJP’s candidate from Delhi's Chandni Chowk, once successfully lobbied for 80 million offline traders against Amazon and Jeff Bezos.
Five: Elections are a festival of democracy. Indian Express celebrates the aam aadmi-isation of wealth and fame as high-profile politicians appease their electorate with somewhat laughable shows—from serving tea to harvesting crops and bathing buffaloes.
Six: Paromita Sen in The Telegraph traces the decline of the “intellectual politician” and the rise of the “populist politician”.
