In 2019, the saffron party swept 25 out of 28 seats—and more than 50% of the vote in the state. It’s hard to replicate that kind of success—and the stakes in 2024 are even higher. We look at why losing ground in Karnataka has serious implications for the BJP, Narendra Modi, and the Hindutva ideology. Also: we look at what the wildly divergent opinion polls say—and the caste dynamics that are likely to determine the outcome.
Editor’s note: As we get into the thick of the season, elections are quickly becoming a big part of our weekday editions. So we’ve decided to turn the Sunday ‘24 Questions edition into a catch-up for all the election coverage you’ve missed during the week (plus extra headlines, reading recommendations and watchlist). Let us know if this version is more useful for you.
First, some basic deets
Here’s where we are on the eve of the first phase of the Karnataka elections on Friday—and how we got here.
The 2019 Lok Sabha election: The BJP swept 25 seats and 51.7% of the vote share. Congress and the only strong regional party JD(S) could only manage one each. The remaining seat was won by an independent—who has now allied herself with the BJP.
The coup: As is usual in Indian politics, the netas abandoned ship for the winning side. Over the course of a single week, 10 Congress and 3 JD(S) MLAs resigned—and included some of the biggest names. BJP swept into power—snatching the gaddi from the JD(S)-Congress alliance—which detonated soon after.
The reversal of fortunes: In an astonishing show of strength, Congress walloped the BJP in the 2023 Karnataka elections (see: this Big Story). The BJP was the single largest party in 2018—with 104 seats—just nine short of a simple majority. In 2023, the party’s total plummeted to an abysmal 66. OTOH, the Congress jumped from 78 to 135.
So what happens next? Quite frankly, we don’t know—but the stakes are very high for both the BJP and Congress—even if the outcome of the larger election seems to be sealed. For Congress, Karnataka is the only remaining lifeline—for a party that has long been teetering on the precipice of irrelevance on the national stage. Enuf said. But the stakes for the BJP—whose larger victory is assured—are more complicated. A weak showing threatens a lot more than that promise of ‘char sau paar’.
Why Karnataka matters: The dominance of Delhi
The Modi-led BJP has won and lost many state elections since it first gained power in 2014. But its hold on New Delhi has been iron-clad—and growing with each Lok Sabha election. Hence, all the talk about ‘char sau paar’.
The long term trend in Karnataka has been similar. BJP may have won and lost the CM throne—but its Lok Sabha total has steadily ticked upwards. Over the past four national elections, it has gone from 18 to 19, then 17, and finally 25 seats in 2019. Its vote share has been steadily expanding as well. As one Kannada columnist explains:
Karnataka’s voters have preferred the BJP from 2004 because they are consciously voting on issues of nationalism. When it comes to the State, their muddled choice reflects a commitment to a secular milieu, but they have succumbed to the narrative built by the BJP against the Congress when it comes to national issues.
So to lose ground in a Lok Sabha election would undermine the BJP’s claim of national dominance.
The bigger picture: It is going to be mighty hard to better the BJP’s 2019 total of 25 seats without a strong showing in Karnataka. The party relies on its image as the ultimate political juggernaut—that grows more powerful and inevitable with each passing election. Resistance is futile etc etc. So a reversal in numbers or vote share will ruin that myth of invincibility. The BJP often wins because everyone expects it to win.
Why Karnataka matters: A test of Modi magic
The BJP has successfully doubled down on the Modi card in every state election—putting him front and centre, whether or not they have a strong local leader (See: Madhya Pradesh). And it’s worked very well for the most part—even in Karnataka.
In 2014, six out of 10 Karnataka voters who voted for the BJP said they voted for Modi—the highest for any state in that election. In fact, Kannadiga voters began consistently splitting their vote—choosing a different party for the state and the nation—in the Modi era. So of course, BJP City Unit’s General Secretary Virupakshappa confidently says:
People, especially young voters, are interested in what Modi ji is saying. People are saying, ‘state ke liye Siddaramaiah, desh ke liye Modi’. We will win because we have Modi. Modi’s guarantee is security of the country.
The election is being framed as a battle between Modi and Siddaramaiah—one’s vision of development (vikas) versus the latter’s ‘five guarantees’, the Congress’ highly popular welfare schemes.
The bulletproof Modi: Even when the BJP was trounced in 2023—despite Modi’s fervent campaigning—analysts still gave him credit for ‘saving’ the party’s 36% vote share:
While this last-minute effort by Modi may not be enough to help the BJP retain the state (Karnataka has a long history of changing governments), it augurs well for the party ahead of next year’s Lok Sabha elections.
As of now, many believe his charisma remains undented by the humiliating Assembly loss. But any serious loss of ground in a national election will be seized upon as a sign of Modi fatigue.
Point to note: Siddaramaiah has already declared the Modi wave as over—framing the meaning of a poor BJP performance, in advance. More interestingly, Congress is trying to cast Modi’s larger-than-life stature as a problem:
[T]he Congress has suggested that having BJP MPs at the Centre does not help Karnataka since they tend to be beholden to the PM and are unlikely to raise issues concerning the state such as tax devolution, water resources, and disaster relief. “The BJP MPs quake when they meet the PM. We need MPs who can raise the concerns of the people of the state,” Siddaramaiah said earlier this month in Mysuru.
Why Karnataka matters: The Hindutva weapon
Karnataka is the only South Indian state where the BJP has a solid base of support. Ever since 2004—come what may—it always wins 13 seats in every Lok Sabha elections. And it seems to have cemented its vote share of 36%—which it retained despite the whipping in the 2023 Assembly elections. This is the real BJP foothold in South India—and it is fortified by Hindutva ideology.
Weakness in the heartland: Three seats in coastal Karnataka—Dakshina Kannada, Uttara Kannada, and Udupi-Chikmagalur—form the party’s Hindutva bastion in the state. All three sitting MPs from these seats are hardcore rightwing leaders—Shobha Karandlaje, Anantkumar Hegde, and Naleen Kumar Kateel. And they each won their elections by a comfortable margin. In the Assembly elections, however, Congress made inroads into this deeply saffron territory—winning key seats within the three constituencies. This doesn’t mean it can repeat the performance in the Lok Sabha elections, but it’s raised red flags for the BJP.
Point to note: The party was worried enough to drop its three Hindutva stalwarts—and opt for fresh faces. Take for example, the replacement of six-term MP Anantkumar Hegde in Uttara Kannada—with a relative moderate. One reason: Congress won five out of eight Assembly seats that form the Lok Sabha constituency. In fact, a recently expelled BJP leader—former Deputy CM KS Eshwarappa—angrily claimed that “all those people who are talking about Hindutva have been sidelined.”
But, but, but: When Modi came to town this past weekend, he beat the old drum in the Hindutva heartland:
The kind of thoughts and ideology being promoted by the Congress government is very dangerous. Our daughters are being attacked, bombs are exploding in markets, and people are being attacked for listening to religious songs. I urge my brothers and sisters to stay very alert of the Congress.
And state BJP leaders like Hegde have gone even further when needed—nicknaming the CM ‘Sidaramulla Khan’, for example.
Adding to the chorus: BJP’s new-found ally JD(S)—which is desperately trying to remain relevant by riding its saffron coattails:
JD(S) has also boldly shifted away from “secular” narratives and has seamlessly adopted the themes of “national development”, “love jihad” and “Ram Temple”, and is relying almost completely on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘image’ to help them sail through.
A new Congress strategy: The party has long flailed in the face of the Hindutva ideology—often opting for a ‘soft’ variety to avoid appearing too ‘sickular’. But its state unit seems to have latched on to a new gameplan—wielding the South Indian identity as a counter-weapon. For example: responding to the union budget in February, Congress’ lone Karnataka MP DK Suresh said:
Today, we are seeing development funds being given to North Indian states. We are seeing a lot of injustice. If we don’t condemn it, in the coming days we might be forced to demand a separate country due to the imposition on us by Hindi regions.
By the way, he is the Deputy CM DK Shivakumar’s brother.
Point to note: Most experts don’t think arguments about Centre-state finances resonate with the voter. But if the ‘BJP is anti-Kannadiga’ (or ‘anti-South India’) rhetoric gains traction, it will pose a serious threat to the party’s Hindutva strategy—and broader push into South India.
Caste in Karnataka: What or who matters
Karnataka politics is dominated by the rivalry between two dominant communities—Lingayats and Vokkaligas. The Lingayats only account for 14-16% of the population—and the Vokkaliga numbers are even smaller: 10-11%. Yet, MLAs belonging to these two castes won roughly half the seats in the 2018 assembly election.
BJP’s Vokkaliga problem: The party has successfully wooed the Lingayats, but Vokkaligas have traditionally voted for either Congress or JD(S). They dominate 11 districts in South Karnataka aka ”Old Mysore”—which has 61 assembly seats. The BJP cannot win big without making inroads into Vokkaliga territory. But it has to hold on to the Lingayats, as well.
The JD(S) solution: The BJP has tried to solve its problem by allying itself with the Deve Gowda-led party. The JD(S) primary claim to electoral fame: its monopoly of the Vokkaliga vote. That advantage has made it a formidable regional player. But in the 2023 election, JD(S) lost a great part of its base to both the Congress and BJP:
The 2023 assembly election result was a clear pointer. The BJP made significant inroads into the Vokkaliga heartland. While this did not translate into seats, the party did record a significant increase in vote share in the Old Mysore region. Importantly, the Congress also made significant vote share gains amongst Vokkaligas.
The bizarre alliance with its old nemesis—the BJP—is a desperate bid for survival. The BJP in turn is hoping that the two parties can consolidate the Vokkaliga vote behind the NDA.
FYI: The BJP gave the JD(S) only three seats to contest. One of the critical contests will be the Deve Gowda clan’s bid to win back the family bastion: Mandya. Gowda’s grandson—Nikhil—lost the Assembly seat to an Independent candidate who is now in the BJP fold. It was a humiliating loss for the family. Now, Deve Gowda’s son and heir HD Kumaraswamy is under pressure to recover its pride:
Kumaraswamy’s followers are convincing the voters that their leader’s victory is essential to keep the JD(S) alive which in turn is necessary to safeguard the interest of the Vokkaliga community. His ardent fans believe a win could earn him a central ministry and thus revive his flailing political career.
The DK challenge: The Congress’ ace is Deputy CM and state Congress chief DK Shivkumar. He is also—most importantly—a Vokkaliga leader:
The rise of DK Shivakumar, in the Congress, has been an important factor in the shift of Vokkaliga votes towards the party. He represents the emergence of a non-JD(S) Vokkaliga leadership. In 2023, Shivakumar was the architect of Congress’ strong performance in the Old Mysore region. From ticket distribution to micromanaging the party’s strategy in every seat, Shivakumar ensured that a significant chunk of Vokkaliga voters saw Congress as a viable option.
DK aims to snatch the baton of Vokkaliga leadership from Deve Gowda—while his progeny do their best to prevent it.
Point to note: DK’s brother Suresh—who is also the Congress’ lone MP from Karnataka—is taking on Dr CN Manjunath, BJP candidate and Kumaraswamy’s brother-in-law. The bigger play: “Suresh’s victory in this election will undeniably cement Shivakumar’s rise as the preeminent leader of the Vokkaliga community and strengthen his claims to the chair of the chief minister.” In the end, Indian netas keep everything in the family.
Keeping Yeddy happy: New Delhi has always been at odds with the man who won them Karnataka—BS Yediyurappa. His incorrigibly Kannadiga worldview and methods have rubbed against the central leadership’s need to have everyone sing from the same Modi+Hindutva hymn book. But the BJP needs Yeddy to hold the Lingayats—a lesson it learned again in 2023 when the former CM was relegated to the sidelines. Picking another Lingayat CM—Basavaraj Bommai—didn’t help much.
Hindutva in the back seat: This time around, the Shah-Modi combine appointed Yeddy’s son BY Vijayendra as the party’s state president—and have given him near-total control over candidate selection. This is one reason why many of the Hindutva hotheads have been pushed aside—so much so that former deputy CM KS Eshwarappa complained: “Karnataka’s BJP is in control of one family, and we are protesting against this. All those people who are talking about Hindutva have been sidelined.”
As Hindustan Times notes:
The assembly elections were a wake-up call for the BJP as its high-voltage Hindutva campaign with a pronounced anti-Muslim edge turned out to be disastrous—the Congress won 135 of the 224 assembly seats. It appears to have gone back to the communitarian [caste] politics pioneered by its tallest state leader, BS Yediyurappa and even denied seats to some of the Hindutva poster boys. On test are the tactical skills of Yediyurappa, the cadre base of the JD(S) and the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The Siddaramaiah assist: As a member of the Kuruba community, the Chief Minister has brought the Dalit and tribal vote into play. Along with party chief Mallikarjun Kharge—who is Dalit—this is the Congress’ other big card: The AHINDA vote.
The term was coined in the 1970s by former Congress CM Devaraj Urs. The acronym stands for Alpasankhyataru (minorities), Hindulidavaru (backward classes) and Dalitaru (Dalits). A great part of Congress’ recent success in the state is due to this return to its populist roots.
Quote to note: Siddaramaiah poses a formidable challenge to the BJP’s success with marginalised voters—who have been key to its victories elsewhere. And he is doing his best to play to their loyalties:
“A lot of people are angry with me because I stand in favour of the poor. They attack me from the time they wake up. You have to hold my hand. The BJP and JD(S) are saying they will win 28 of the 28 seats in Karnataka,” Siddaramaiah said in his home constituency of Varuna earlier this month.
Siddaramaiah’s move to suggest his future as the CM is at stake in the Lok Sabha polls is seen as an effort to consolidate the votes of the Kuruba community and Muslims (accounting for nearly 19% of votes in the state) who are considered ardent supporters of the CM.
In conclusion: A look at the polls
Despite all this deep contemplation of caste tea leaves, the pundits still can’t agree on who will come out ahead. The great disparity between local and national pollsters is truly mind-boggling.
The big name pollsters: predict BJP will retain its chokehold on the Lok Sabha seats. India TV says it will win 21 out of 28 seats—while Congress will only manage five. The ABP-C Voter survey also puts BJP’s total at 21. News18 is the most optimistic. It expects BJP to retain its tally of 25.
But, but, but: The two surveys conducted by Kannada media house Eedina threw up an entirely different result. Its first survey—conducted between February 15 and March 5—predicted a 17-seat tally for Congress and 11 for BJP. It expects a 10% shift in vote share—from the BJP-JD(S) alliance to the Congress. Though the totals are roughly the same—42.35% and 43.77%, respectively.
The second survey was conducted between March 28 to April 14—after the candidate list was announced. This one gives anywhere between 13 and 18 seats to Congress—with a possible vote share of 46.41%. The BJP-JD(S) alliance will get between 10 and 13 seats—with a 44.27% vote share:
Interestingly, its latest survey found a swell in the Congress’s support, with the party gaining by 2.64% in terms of vote share within the span of a month, translating into a greater number of seats. If the momentum remains with the Congress, the survey speculated, its tally could also go up to 20.
Reminder: The BJP single-handedly won 51% of the votes in 2019.
What’s happening here? Accurate or not, the results are interesting because they challenge the biases of both sides. The surveys found that Karnataka voters have a lot of respect for the Prime Minister:
A large number of respondents (47.64%) believed that India’s stature has grown under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and around 69% of respondents gave a thumbs-up to Modi and rated his regime either satisfactory or excellent. Over 45% of them believed that he should get a third term.
But 56% also think Congress cares more about the ordinary Indian—the number is 60% among women. In other words, the party’s populist pitch has worked.
It’s sorta the economy, stupid: Just weeks ago, a comprehensive national survey seemed to show that both the BJP and Modi have escaped all blame for economic pain—be it inflation, corruption or unemployment (we laid out in this Eye Candy). But the Eedina survey suggests that’s not entirely true. The greatest percentages of voters say all three have increased under BJP rule—and hold the party responsible. But they are reluctant to directly assign blame to Modi. And 50% still say they’re satisfied with his governance.
The most interesting bit: Many experts say the Congress has not been able to sway Karnataka voters with its pitch about financial injustice—that the stepmotherly BJP government has not given the state its fair share of tax revenues. But the Eedina survey indicates nearly 42% seem to have bought the argument—while almost 31% don’t know or can’t say. In other words, they remain the ‘persuadables’—something for Opposition parties to think about long after this election is done.
Point to note: Eedina was the only media house to accurately predict a Congress victory in the 2023 state assembly polls.
The bottomline: Even Eedina pollsters say that the differences are narrow in most constituencies—and the election is still too close to call. Anything can change in these last weeks. Ah, Indian politics—never a dull moment, and we wouldn’t have it any other way.
We leave you with this quote from the Hindustan Times on the 2023 state elections. It holds just as true for the Lok Sabha vote—and not just in Karnataka:
The real importance of Karnataka’s verdict… lies in the fact that India’s electoral democracy provides enough space to all parties to compete, where even a weaker opposition party can score a win over a more powerful rival. It lies in the fact that Indian federalism is robust and the political sensibility in a state can vary from what may appear to be the national mood. It lies in the fact that voters have shown that they will not hesitate to punish governments that don’t serve their constitutional and popular mandates, and reward political parties that can articulate and aggregate the concerns of citizens in an effective manner. And in that sense, Karnataka’s importance lies in ensuring that no party can take its political dominance for granted and Indian democracy retains its vitality.
Reading list
- India Today and Times of India lay out the argument in favour of a BJP win.
- For more background, read our Big Story on the landslide Congress win. We laid out the caste dynamics in greater detail here and here.
- Indian Express looks at how Congress is dealing with BJP’s ‘saffron wall’. Moneycontrol and The Hindu offer a good analysis of the big picture.
- The Hindu lays out the 13 seats that form the BJP’s bastion—and the media strategies of the two parties.
- For the best analysis of the Eedina surveys, read The Wire and The News Minute.
- For a detailed account of the caste calculations, read The Wire and Indian Express. MoneyControl explains why the Vokkaligas are betting on DK.
- Hindustan Times explains why Karnataka matters.
