There is dizzying excitement over Harris’ nomination. But can a biracial woman really win? Or, to put it differently: Can she beat Trump—who looks poised for an astonishing comeback? In the first part, we look at her backstory—and where the polls stand now. Part two—which you can read here—will look at all the ‘winnability’ questions.
Editor's note: Be sure to catch part two of this series–where we look at the Big Qs that will determine Harris’ fate. Is she black enough? Is she American enough? Is she likeable enough? Also: How the eff is Donald winning?
About the lead image: This photo of the Harris family from 1972 features Kamala—front centre—standing before her mother, Shyamala Gopalan, and beside her younger sister, Maya. Flanking Shyamala are her parents, PV—left—and Rajam Gopalan, who were visiting. Image source: Wall Street Journal
Kamala, the backstory:
Here’s a quick round-up—the original version is in this 2020 Big Story.
The parents: Her father, Donald, is a Jamaican-born professor of economics at Stanford University. Her mother, Chennai-born Shyamala Gopalan, was an endocrinologist, who met and married Donald in Berkeley back in 1964—at the height of the civil rights movement. They met as members of the Afro American Association—which went on to help establish Black studies, the holiday of Kwanzaa and the Black Panther Party.
You can see baby K with her mum here:
All about Shyamala: Donald and Shyamala had two children—Kamala and Maya—but divorced when Harris was seven years old. Like Obama, Harris was raised primarily by her rule-breaking mother—who shaped the course of Kamala’s life. She barely mentions her father—now a retired Stanford University professor.
Shyamala Gopalan was the eldest of four children—born to Rajam, a women’s rights activist, and PV Gopalan, a senior bureaucrat. She was trapped doing a home science degree at the Lady Irwin College in Madras:
“My father and I used to tease her like nobody’s business,” said her brother, Gopalan Balachandran, who would go on to earn a Ph.D. in computer science and economics. “We would say, ‘What do you study in home science? Do they teach you to set up plates for dinner?’”
So in 1958, she surprised her parents by applying for a Master’s degree at Berkeley—a university her parents had never heard of. The rest is Kamala’s childhood history. Shyamala died in 2009. You can see a young Shyamla with her kids below:
And this clip of Harris speaking of her mother—often dismissed because of ‘her accent’—made us kinda tear up:
Kamala grows up: Harris did her undergraduate at Howard—the most prestigious among Historically Black Universities. She trained as a lawyer but at Hastings College of the Law, University of California not Harvard—and pursued a highly successful legal career. She previously served as the California Attorney General and the District Attorney of San Francisco.
Quote to note: Shyamala’s college roommate remembers the advice she got from her friend: “The minute they call you exotic, you walk away from them and tell them to f--- off,” Of course, these days everyone is talking about a different quote: “You think you just fell out of a coconut tree”—which is what Shyamala told her daughter—when she ignored historical or social context of a problem:
“My mother used to — she would give us a hard time sometimes, and she would say to us, ‘I don’t know what’s wrong with you young people. You think you just fell out of a coconut tree?’” Harris said, while laughing. “You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.”
The result: priceless memes—with zero context lol!
Presidential run #1: The K-bomb
After a single term as a senator, Harris ran for the Democratic nomination in 2019. She bombed despite her best efforts to replicate the Barack Obama playbook. Harris was the only candidate who started the race as a front-runner—only to plummet to the low single digits.
Why? Harris did not have a clear political agenda—or message:
[H]er aides are given to gallows humour about just how many slogans and one-liners she has cycled through, with one recalling how “‘speak truth’ spring” gave way to “‘3 a.m.’ summer” before the current, Trump-focused “‘justice’ winter.”
She seemed embarrassed by her own record as a prosecutor. Also: She appointed her sister Maya as campaign chair—a recipe for resentment and infighting. The most damning criticism: “You can’t run the country if you can’t run your campaign.”
Vice President Harris: The harsh truth is that Harris’ presidential prospects would have been buried along with her 2019 campaign—if Joe Biden had not picked her as his running mate. Biden wanted a woman of colour who was moderate—and above all—would not upstage him: “In her interviews, and in a final-round conversation with Mr. Biden, Ms. Harris was emphatic on one point: that she would be loyal to Mr. Biden and support his agenda without reservation.”
That’s the role she has played for the last four years: low profile and loyal. Her few forays into the spotlight—on illegal immigration, for example—have not been memorable. Politico once described her tenure as “one defined by sharp moments, mishaps, public drama, private work and a touch of bad political luck." She can’t afford any of that in the 98 days she has left to win the White House.
Candidate Harris: Where she stands now
Most of the polls conducted after Biden’s disastrous debate performance compared him to Harris as a likely candidate—against Trump. There have only been eight key polls since she entered the race. All of them show a close tie. In the Wall Street Journal
poll Trump leads Harris 49% to 47%—within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. OTOH, Trump held a six-point lead over Biden before he dropped out. Here’s where she is out-performing Biden—and where she is still dangerously weak.
One: She is the choice of 63% of nonwhite voters—up from the 51% for Biden. But it is still below the 73% who voted for Biden in 2020.
Two: But those who do support Kamala—and way more excited about her—than Biden supporters: “Only 37% of Biden voters were enthusiastic about him in early July and now 81% of Harris voters are enthusiastic about her. This is an astounding change.” That said, this just about brings her on par with Trump—whose voters love him.
Point to note: She is pretty much “crushing it” with young voters: She has 60% of the 18-35 demographic compared to 40% for Trump.
Three: Harris has a swing state problem. As you know, in the US system, the winning candidate has to win the most delegates in the electoral college. So it’s not about how many votes you win—but where you win them. That’s why big, fat Florida matters more than teeny tiny Connecticut. According to the latest poll, Trump leads Harris in seven of the nine swing states—including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. She leads in Minnesota, and the two are tied in Wisconsin.
Four: She also has a popularity problem. According to FiveThirtyEight’s average, only 38.2% approve of her—compared to the 52.3% who disapprove. OTOH, Trump’s numbers aren’t stellar. More people approve of him—42.9%—but his disapproval rating—52.4%—is similar. But, but, but: Other polls give Harris an edge—at 40%-44% positive-to-negative rating. A solid 15% either haven’t heard of her or were unsure. In comparison, Trump gets a 43%-49% rating with 8% unsure.
Five: The sorta good news in the NPR numbers: More voters are ‘undecided’. That’s 1 in 5 independent voters—including almost 3 in 10 independent women—who Harris will do her best to woo. But, but, but: she fares far less well with them: “Harris only pulls in 32% of independents in a match-up against Trump, while Biden got 46% in Marist’s last survey.” She is also far behind Biden with white voters, in general–and small town/suburban women.
The bottomline: In part two, we will look at the Big Qs that will determine Harris’ fate. Is she black enough? Is she American enough? Is she likeable enough? Also: How the eff is Donald winning? You can read part two of the Big Story here—along with the headlines.
Reading list
New York Times (splainer gift link) offers the most detailed background on Kamala’s family. Politico reports on how her 2020 presidential campaign collapsed. Reuters visually explains how the electoral college works. Based on its latest poll, Wall Street Journal (splainer gift link) has solid analysis on where Harris stands. For the most comprehensive aggregated polling data on Harris vs. Trump, check out FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics.
