There’s so much happening on the day after, we’re dedicating the Big Story section to an extended catchup.
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First: NDA coalition karma
In the midst of wild rumours—of defections and coups—the NDA picked Narendra Modi as its leader. The sight of Modi-ji forced to share the dais with his new-found buddies Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar made liberals gloat with glee:
I really, really want: Very much like the Spice Girls, Nitish-babu and Naidu have presented a list of all the things they really, really want. Here are the reported asks.
One: Special category status for Andhra Pradesh—which is kinda like welfare for backward states. They get extra money and resources from the union government—which is always nice.
Two: CBN also wants the post of Speaker in the Lok Sabha. This may seem strange, but the position is critical in coalition governments—at risk for defections:
The Speaker’s role is paramount when it comes to proving majority on the floor of the House or in case the anti-defection law comes into play. When it comes to disputes on the floor of the House, the Speaker's decision is final.
Three: Nitish Kumar is demanding at least three plum cabinet portfolios—all of them designed to boost Bihar:
The party, sources said, has its eyes on Railways, Rural Development and Jal Shakti ministries. Other choices could be Transport and Agriculture. “Nitish has held railways, agriculture and transport portfolios in the NDA government. We want our MPs to take up departments that can help develop the state. Jal Shakti is crucial in the context of Bihar facing a water crisis alongside challenges of a receding water table and flooding. We could also give a push to interlinking of river projects,” said a JD(U) leader.
Four: Telugu Desam is asking for five cabinet portfolios—some of which overlap with Nitish’s list:
A TDP MP said the party wants rural development, housing and urban affairs, ports & shipping, road transport & highways, and Jal Shakti ministries. It is also keen to have a junior minister in the finance ministry as the state is in dire need of funds.
Naidu too is eyeing ministries that will most benefit his state—Andhra Pradesh. Guess Gujarat will soon be losing its special status.
Quote to note: Here’s something to give BJP supporters pause. According to Kapil Komireddi in The Print, Naidu was sorely used and abused by Modi in the past—and will relish the opportunity to settle scores:
What Modi, steeped for so long in hubris, does not know is Naidu’s flair for vengeance. Good luck to the Opposition bigwigs striving to lure Naidu away from the NDA with pledges and promises of a blank cheque. I hope they succeed. But what they don’t quite appreciate is how much he is relishing this moment. Modi, until yesterday the most powerful Indian leader in decades, is just where Naidu wants him: at his feet.
This TV news clip sums up the sad state of affairs for the BJP:
Meanwhile, over at INDIA: The alliance voted to keep the doors open for Nitish and Naidu: “[T]he bloc will be patient for the right opportunity. It was agreed that the allies should remain vigilant whenever the BJP government moves a confidence motion in Parliament, which could possibly offer them an opening.” While neither frenemy is likely to abandon the BJP—that kind of talk helpfully adds to the party’s sense of vulnerability.
Meanwhile, in Maharashtra…
The NDA coalition is looking somewhat shaky. The final seat count looked like this: NDA 17 vs INDIA 30. The rebel Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde could only manage seven seats—while Ajit Pawar’s NCP got one. The BJP haul: nine—down from 23 in 2019. Reminder: The NDA—in alliance with the unbroken Shiv Sena—won 41 out of 48 seats.
Fadnavis’ sudden move: Until now, BJP state leader Devendra Fadnavis had been happily ruling as the power behind Shinde’s throne. He has now offered to step down—taking responsibility for the alliance’s poor showing. Apparently, Fadnavis wants to be “freed” from governance so he can serve the party—in the upcoming state elections in October. Times of India sees this as a rebellion against the Shah-Modi high command—who forced him to serve under Shinde.
As for Ajit Pawar: The NCP leader is “sulking”—and skipped a key NDA meeting in Delhi. He’s especially upset that his wife lost to his cousin—Sharad Pawar’s daughter. A decision he took under pressure from the BJP. Pawar had been widely criticised for turning the elections into a family feud. So he now feels screwed over—with NCP accusing BJP and Shinde of not doing enough—and dubbing her loss “a betrayal.” There’s also a risk that he may be discarded ahead of the state elections.
Data point to note: Here’s a little nugget from India Today: “PM Modi held multiple public meetings and a road show in as many as 18 Lok Sabha seats of Maharashtra. The NDA failed to win in 15 of those seats.” Sad.
Post-poll surveys say…
The Hindu published a series of results of a post-poll survey conducted by CSDS—which is independent and highly regarded (though it also overestimated BJP’s might). This survey was conducted from April 21 to June 3—across 23 states. Here’s a quick summary of the results—which are all behind a paywall.
One: Modi was the top choice for prime minister—picked by 41% of the respondents. Rahul Gandhi came in second with 27%. But the Modi appeal is eroding:
This time around, there was a six-percentage point decline in the mention of Narendra Modi as the prime ministerial choice as compared to 2019. The gap between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi as the preferred prime ministerial choice has fallen by eight percentage points. A decade ago, the gap was twenty-two percentage points
What’s also interesting: Around 60% of those who voted for BJP and its allies said the choice of prime minister influenced their vote. It was around 50% for Congress and its allies.
Two: Money mattered. Voters don’t care about economic data—but they care very much about their personal financial situation. Only 40% felt that their personal/household conditions improved since 2019. The rest said it had remained the same or worsened (35% and 18%, respectively). And yes, it affected how they voted:
Data reveals that those whose economic conditions remained unchanged divided their votes almost equally between the ruling regime and the challenging party/alliance. However, those who experienced their economic conditions worsen had a clear preference for the Opposition camp. More than half of them would have voted for the Congress and its allies as against 23% for the BJP and its allies. Conversely, most of those whose economic conditions improved said they voted for the BJP-led NDA.
Three: Overall, 60% were fully or partly satisfied with the BJP’s performance. It’s a six percentage point drop from 2019—but still pretty high. However, when asked to cite achievements, voters pointed to cultural factors—the biggest being the Ram Mandir. OTOH, they were most unhappy about economic issues—inflation and unemployment—which seems to have trumped the cultural highlights for many voters. FYI: “54% of those who appreciated the Ram Mandir construction voted for the BJP.”
Four: Last not least, welfare programs don’t seem to have helped the BJP:
More than three-fourths of the respondents reported not benefitting from the housing scheme of the government. Another seven of every 10 said that they had not benefitted from the Ayushman Bharat (Health Insurance) Scheme. Yet another two-thirds did not benefit from the MNREGA employment scheme. It is only the Public Distribution System (PDS) and the Ujjwala Yojana which found the reporting of many beneficiaries.
This may be why unemployment and inflation played such a significant role.
Stuff to watch: Viral clips are the best part about the day after. Here are some of our favourites:
One: The very best of the lot: Yogendra Yadav spanking India Today while on air on India Today. We insist you wait past the broadcast glitches for the full roasting of Rahul Kanwal:
Two: Nitish Kumar and his rival Tejashwi Yadav trapped on the same flight to Delhi… Awkward!
Three: Throwback Amit Shah on Nitish Kumar is positively hilarious.
Four: Yogi Adityanath supporter spanking Amit Shah is unbelievable—the cracks are already showing in UP!
Five: Also unbelievable: Zee News calling out Aaj Tak for being ‘godi’ media:
Six: Throwback Chandrababu Naidu is also worth a watch—to see what Modi is up against. That old adage about keeping your enemies even closer doesn’t always work out.
Seven: Throwback John Oliver went viral again—this time for his extended riff on Indian media.
