Defying all artificially pumped up expectations, the BJP bombed at the electoral box office—having failed to even cross the majority mark. But is this the end of the Modi era—an electoral thappad to the cult of personality? Or is it—all things considered—just a setback to the BJP juggernaut—which has still secured a historic third term?
Editor’s note: There is so much to unpack in this blockbuster election—whose meaning will unfurl slowly. There will be fresh data, perspectives and angles. We will track and distil these over the coming weeks. So consider this part one of an ongoing series.
First, the very big picture
As the dust settles this morning, here’s where we are: NDA: 292 seats (BJP: 240)
And INDIA: 232 seats (Congress: 99). The BJP will form the government in coalition with Nitish Kumar-led JDU (12 seats) and Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (16 seats).
The irony is that the BJP has still secured a historic third term in power—but its victory is widely viewed as a defeat. But the party has scored both significant victories and losses. And in the next section, we will look at what those numbers mean. For now, here’s a quick overview of what the map looks like:
The good news for the BJP
The big sweep: The BJP swept almost all seats in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, and Delhi—which mostly matched its 2019 performance.
But, but, but: The Congress can take joy in the single seat it won in Gujarat—after 10 years. Geniben Thakor defeated the BJP's Rekhaben Chaudhari in Banaskantha by a margin of over 30,000 votes. Thakor’s campaign was heart-warming for a number of reasons:
Ms Thakor is a two-time MLA and the only woman representative of the Congress in the Gujarat Assembly. She crowdfunded her deposit, encouraging her constituents to help her financially with funds as low as Rs 11. She promoted her QR code to receive donations and reached out to voters beyond the traditional party mechanisms.
The big gains: BJP hit Odisha out of the park. Its seat tally jumped from 8 in 2019 to 20 out of 21 seats in 2024. Also remarkable: It doubled its seat tally—from four to eight—in Telangana. And like Congress, it can justifiably celebrate winning a single seat in Kerala—a historic first-time achievement.The former Rajya Sabha member Suresh Gopi comfortably won Thrissur with a margin of 74,000 votes—beating two heavyweight rivals from Congress and CPI.
In the win-maybe-loss column: We have Bihar and Karnataka. Yes, the NDA came out ahead in both states—but it still lost ground. In 2019, the alliance won 39 out of 40 seats in Bihar. The score this time: 29. INDIA only managed 9—but the total for Congress went from 1 to 3—which must be sweet.
Breaking the South India wall: Numbers are deceptive. Even though its overall total in the region is the same (29 seats), the party has done exceptionally well. The BJP has now:
- Won a seat in Kerala—making electoral history. The vote share has increased from 12.93% to 16.67%.
- Doubled its haul in Telangana—from four to eight—with a staggering vote share of 35.06%.
- Swept 21 seats in Andhra Pradesh as part of the NDA alliance—with Naidu’s Telugu Desam and Jana Sena Party. The BJP personally scored three seats—and a respectable vote share of 13.07%.
But, but, but: Its tally in Karnataka has fallen from 29 to 17—while Congress jumped from 1 to 9. The vote share also fell from 51.38% to 46.05%. And for all the hype, the party still got nada in Tamil Nadu. The silver lining: That said, its vote share is up from 3.66% in 2019 to 10.72% in 2024.
The bad news for the BJP
The Uttar Pradesh debacle: Modi-ji’s other home state delivered a number of embarrassments—apart from the seats lost:
- Modi’s own winning margin in Varanasi dropped from 479,000 to 152,000—while Rahul Gandhi won Rae Bareli by a staggering 390,030 votes.
- The biggest thappad: Faizabad—home of the Ram Mandir. Samajwadi Party’s Dalit candidate Awadhesh Prasad walloped BJP’s sitting MP Lallu Singh.
- The party lost some of its most loyal upper caste voters—such as the Thakurs.
- Smriti Irani lost Amethi by 167,196 votes. Enuf said.
In the end, the BJP only managed 33 seats—compared to its 2019 total of 62. The big winner was Samajwadi Party—which got 37—while Congress upped its total from one in 2019 to six in 2024.
Point to note: A party that wins big in the state—rules unchallenged in Delhi. A poor showing means it will need coalition partners to gain the gaddi. Hence the golden rule: “Kendra ki sarkar ka raasta UP se hokar guzarata hai” (the road to the central government passes through UP). It dominates India by sheer numbers:
[T]he state has 80 Lok Sabha seats (14.7% of the total seats), 31 seats (12.4% of total seats) in Rajya Sabha, 403 Assembly seats (9.77% of the total seats of all state Assemblies) and 100 seats in the Legislative Council.
Moving on to Maharashtra: There was serious blowback for the machiavellian shenanigans of Amit Shah—who engineered splits in the two regional giants—Shiv Sena and the NCP. In 2019, the BJP won 41 out of 48 seats in alliance with the unbroken Shiv Sena. This time around, its coalition—with factions of Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar—could only manage 17. BJP’s own tally dropped from 23 to 9. Congress’s total, OTOH, soared from one to 13. In all, INDIA won 30 seats.
The fall of the zombies: The cannibalised versions of Shiv Sena and NCP proved to be duds—despite being awarded both the name and symbol of the parties they destroyed. Shinde’s Sena could only win 7 seats—while Ajit Pawar managed one. Shinde’s defection helped Uddhav Thackeray achieve a rare feat in Shiv Sena’s history:
Mr. Thackeray’s gains suggested that the rank-and-file Shiv Sainiks still remained with him even as the former CM carved a new, inclusive vote-base for the Sena (UBT) which included minorities and Dalits.
Queen of Bengal: Mamata proved that no one puts Didi in a corner—certainly not the BJP—whose tally fell from 18 to 12. Also notable: Her decision to dump the INDIA alliance proved to be super-smart. There was no one to split the anti-BJP vote—or more specifically, the Muslim vote. Trinamool now holds 29 of 42 seats.
The Northeast is lost: No one’s talking about this much, but the NDA has lost control of four states in the region. It has lost all seats in Manipur, Nagaland, Mizoram, and Meghalaya.
The verdict: What do the numbers mean?
We will dive into each of these aspects in greater detail in later Big Stories—but here are the key takeaways:
Too much power: The voters were worried about an unrestrained BJP running amok—especially the Dalits. There are 84 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes. Of these, the BJP has won or was leading in 30—down from 46 in 2019. Congress has improved from six to 19. Dalits were responsible for most of the losses in Uttar Pradesh as well.
The Opposition’s core line of attack was that the BJP planned to gut all democratic institutions—including the Constitution. Voters paid attention:
While this might seem like high-minded theory, these concerns express themselves in myriad ways. In Uttar Pradesh, the Dalit community, in particular, expressed concerns that the Constitution might change. Elsewhere, we heard complaints about the BJP “washing machine” — the use of investigative agencies to coerce popular politicians to defect to the BJP. In the South, many we spoke to expressed a fear that the federal bargain was being compromised, and that their linguistic identities were at risk. These may all sound like specific issues, but their root cause is the same — excessive coercion and manipulation of institutions from the ruling party.
But, but, but: A number of experts say the reduced numbers do not signify a rejection of the BJP worldview—or even its dictatorial ways. A substantial number of Indians still endorse the party’s Hindutva agenda—and Modi’s leadership. In fact, these may be the only reasons why the BJP remains the largest party in India—by miles:
At the same time, the Opposition will need to understand this outcome with caution. Silent disappointment about economic hardships may have put the BJP on the back foot, but the Opposition would be wrong to declare that the voters have rejected BJP: Neither its arrogance and destruction of institutions nor its politics of cultural assertion have been explicitly rejected… A setback in terms of reduced strength may not deter the BJP and may not win large segments away from that exclusionary agenda.
Quote to note: The BJP has already signalled that it has heard the message—and will likely adapt its strategy to counter fears about ‘tanashahi’. In his very first speech, the prime minister said: “Our Constitution is our guiding light. I want to assure that the NDA government will work with all states.”
Suit-boot ki sarkar: That’s how Rahul Gandhi mocked the BJP in 2015—but with little success. The voters seemed to reach the same conclusion—albeit nine years later. The worries about unemployment and inflation—cited as top factors in the Hindi belt—undid the magnetism of Modi. In fact, the government’s unwillingness to address their needs—heightened fears about BJP’s assault on democracy:
The election was framed by the BJP as a fait accompli. There were no demands that citizens could bring to their leaders, no issues upon which they could hold them accountable. Prime Minister Modi’s third term was inevitable.
The vote is the only weapon that poorest Indians have to force attention and accountability from the very powerful. Voters have made sure that the BJP knows that their brahmastra is more powerful than any at its disposal.
The big Q: End of the Modi era?
That’s what many analysts have declared—their optimism perhaps coloured by their political values: “‘Ek akela sab par bhaari’ (I alone am enough to vanquish all of you),” he had thundered in a chest-thumping and Opposition-mocking speech in Parliament in 2023. The voters have now shown him his place.” And they aren’t entirely wrong.
One: For all his god-like PR posturing, the prime minister today has been revealed to be an ordinary neta—subject to the whims of the voters. He has been very publicly cut to size—and all the spectacular photo-ops cannot make the country or world unsee the fact.
Two: The BJP now needs two other parties to stay in power. Modi will now have to deal with the vagaries of netagiri. Adding to his misery, his two partners—Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu—have no love for him or the BJP. Worse, they don’t even share the party’s Hindutva worldview. The party’s big ticket agenda has officially stalled out. There will be no uniform civil code or ‘one nation, one election’. Rather than Hindu dharma, Modi-ji will have to embrace coalition dharma:
According to political observers, with Modi’s image of invincibility dented, at a time when the BJP has centred its politics and electioneering strategy around him, it remains to be seen whether he would be able to survive as the prime minister of a coalition government. Crucially, senior BJP leaders admit, a coalition government would mean that many of the BJP’s pet projects, both in reforms as well as on the ideological front, are shelved or kept in cold storage.
Three: Last not least, the setback has also dented the supremacy of the Modi-Shah combine within the BJP:
Mr. Modi’s biggest headache will come from the erosion in cohesiveness within his own party. For the past 10 years, he, ably assisted by Mr. Shah, has controlled the BJP with unquestioned authority. But that luxury will now be denied to him and Mr. Shah.
Modi has also been weakened in the midst of questions about his age—and inevitably ‘retirement’. Questions about his possible successor will become louder—and contenders will be bolder about staking their claims.
Also this: Modi-ji will no longer be able to lord over other BJP leaders—who have been entirely sidelined. He will have to—shock, horror—work with the ‘minions’:
Several BJP leaders… admitted that “the leadership would have to review its style of functioning” and discuss decisions and internal appointments more extensively. “The nomination culture will be over,” said a party leader from UP, responding in jest to a query on the emerging internal dynamics.
Quote to note: Of course, it isn’t clear what the PM himself makes of his new situation. As Suhas Palshikar notes in the Indian Express: “This poses an interesting moment of tension. We shall now witness the co-existence of a leader convinced of his divine role and a politics of more routine transactions and concessions.”
The bottomline: For ten years, we were told and believed that the BJP/Modi was invincible—either superhero or supervillain. Both the party and its leader have been exposed as mere mortals. But they are still the very first among equals—and by a mile. Let’s not forget: The BJP still won a staggering 38% of the vote. That is hardly a defeat.
Reading list
There is so much coverage, it is almost impossible to recommend everything that’s worth reading (and a lot of it is behind a paywall). Here’s a quick list: Sudheendra Kulkarni in The Hindu (paywall) argues this is a landmark election—which will transform Indian politics. Suhas Palshikar in the Indian Express (paywall) strongly disagrees. Very much worth your time: Yamini Aiyar and Neelanjan Sircar (paywall) on how voters read the election. Also read the Indian Express for impact within the BJP, the Dalit seat numbers and why Ayodhya was lost. BBC News has more on Modi’s speech and Soutwik Biswas on why BJP lost ground. New York Times (splainer gift link) has key takeaways.
