Unfortunately, this is the only big story in the world today. We look at the state of the invasion, peace talks and the Russian economy.
Editor’s note: We have extensively tracked the Russia vs Ukraine conflict since December. If you need more context, we highly recommend reading our Big Story on the historical roots of the conflict and this timely explainer on the effectiveness of economic sanctions. We also charted the first day of the invasion here and the return of the Cold War.
Researched by: Sara Varghese
The negotiations: The high level talks between Ukraine and Russia ended without a breakthrough. The Ukrainians accused Russia of being “extremely biased”—while President Putin told French President Macron that a deal “is possible only if Russia’s legitimate security interests are unconditionally taken into account.” Also: Moscow sent its culture minister to lead the talks—which kinda tells you something. Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy asked the UN Security Council to kick Russia out—and signed an application for EU membership for Ukraine.
The state of the invasion: The Russian forces made headway in the south. Ukraine admitted that the Black Sea city of Berdyansk has fallen—and Kherson is under siege. The heaviest shelling yesterday focused on the city of Kharkiv—targeting civilian areas like apartment buildings and shopping malls. Kharkiv officials said: “This is happening in the daytime, when people have gone out to the pharmacy, for groceries, or for drinking water.” Zelenskyy called it a war crime. See the attack on a shopping centre below:
What’s next: Kyiv—which has already been encircled by Russian troops. According to satellite images, a Russian convoy stretching over 40 miles—comprising hundreds of armoured vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and logistics support vehicles—is moving toward the city from the north. You can see the thick cluster of troops below:
Point to note: While Ukrainians have managed to slow the Russian advance, experts agree that Putin has not launched an all-out assault as yet.
Other images of note: Ukraine TV kept civilian spirits up by airing war hype videos like these:
More amusing: This Ukrainian farmer towing a tank with his tractor—chased by a desperate Russian soldier.
The death toll: The UN says at least 102 civilians have died and 304 have been injured—but says the real figure is likely “considerably higher.” Most of them were killed due to heavy shelling, rockets and air strikes. Ukraine puts the death toll at 352, including 14 children and says 1,684 people—including 116 children—have been injured.
The refugees: continued to pour over the borders into neighbouring European nations. The UN estimates around 500,000 have fled the country.
About those students: Thousands of Indian students remain stranded at the border in freezing temperatures, without food or water. Many complain of being assaulted by Ukrainian guards who are not allowing them to cross. Others are stuck in bomb shelters and underground hostels in the cities.The government is planning to send four ministers to oversee the evacuation: Hardeep Puri to Hungary, Kiren Rijiju to Slovakia, Jyotiraditya Scindia to Romania and Moldova and VK Singh to Poland. No one is clear exactly what their presence might achieve. India has operated six evacuation flights and rescued 1,400 citizens since Saturday. Going viral: This call, made by a Gujarati man to a Ministry of External Affairs helpline—trying to find help for his nephew. It did not go well.
The race factor: Even as most of the world rallied in sympathy for Ukraine, politicians and TV reporters reminded us that racism is ever-present—even in the time of war.
New sanctions: The economic isolation of Moscow continued apace. The US slapped additional sanctions on Russia’s central bank which effectively ban Americans from doing any business with the bank and freezes its US assets:
“We wanted to put these actions in place before our markets open because what we learned over the course of the weekend from our allies and partners was the Russian Central Bank was attempting to move assets and there would be a great deal of asset flight starting on Monday morning from institutions around the world… Our strategy to put it simply is to make sure that the Russian economy goes backward. As long as President Putin decides to go forward with his invasion of Ukraine.”
Point to note: at least 50% of Russia's reserves are now off limits to Moscow due to these sanctions. Meanwhile, Japan joined the US and the EU in cutting Russian banks from SWIFT—the global financial payments system. Tokyo is also directly sanctioning top Russian officials, including Putin, and Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko.
More surprising: Both Singapore and typically neutral Switzerland announced sanctions of their own.
A growing list of bans: The International Olympic Association has recommended that Russian and Belarussian athletes be banned from all international events. FIFA—the governing body for football—and its European counterpart UEFA have banned Russian participation in international tournaments—ejecting it from the World Cup qualifiers. Ukraine is ratcheting up the pressure on tennis and F1 authorities to expel Russians, as well.
A world of economic pain: The rouble has collapsed—losing 25% of its value to trade at 104 to the dollar. Why this matters: It threatens to wipe out much of the rouble-based savings sitting in Russia's banks—and will send inflation rates soaring. In response to this the Russian central bank more than doubled its interest rates from 9.5% to 20%. The start of trading on the Russian stock market was delayed, and then cancelled entirely. There were long lines outside ATMs as Russians rushed to withdraw their money.
The situation is best summed up by the New York Times:
"[T]he economic carnage and societal turmoil wrought by Mr Putin’s invasion are becoming increasingly difficult to obscure. Airlines canceled once-ubiquitous flights to Europe. The Central Bank scrambled to deliver rouble bills as the demand for cash spiked 58-fold. Economists warned of more inflation, greater capital flight and slower growth; and the S&P credit rating agency downgraded Russia to ‘junk’ status."
A Chinese lifeline: In the midst of this, the Russian gas giant Gazprom moved toward what could be its biggest-ever natural gas supply deal with China. If it goes through, a new pipeline will supply 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to China—and allow Russia to redirect gas from fields that now only feed Europe—which is its single largest buyer right now.
The bottomline: These are early days yet. The Russian attack will get uglier and more destructive—as it has in the past in places like Syria:
“Russian military doctrine toward taking cities is both grimly practical and deadly, favoring heavy artillery, missiles and bombs to terrify civilians and push them to flee, while killing defenders and destroying local infrastructure and communications before advancing on the ground.”
New York Times looks at the economic impact on Russia—and whether it will damage support for Putin. BBC News has more on the panic among ordinary Russians. Axios sums up the fallout of the sanctions—both for Russia and the global economy. Vox explains why the isolation of Russia will escalate a global hunger crisis. Lawrence Freedman has more on the failure of Russia’s war strategy.
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