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The TLDR: Political hubris, dynastic rivalry, shady maneuvering… This story out of the Hindi heartland has everything you’d expect from Indian rajneeti. The overnight collapse of Lok Janshakti Party leader Chirag Paswan may smack of same-old netagiri, but it offers a good opportunity to understand the dynamics of Bihar politics.

The big Kumar vs Paswan rivalry

The story begins with the now-deceased Ram Vilas Paswan and his fractious relationship with current Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. 

• Ram Vilas Paswan—the most prominent Dalit leader in the state—was the founder of Lok Janshakti Party.
• Over the past decades, Paswan switched sides multiple times earning himself the reputation of an effective if unreliable political operator. 
• But in recent years, Paswan’s hold on the Dalit vote receded thanks to Nitish—who created a category of ‘Mahadalits’ to offer government benefits for a group of 20-plus Schedule Caste communities. But Nitish very pointedly did not include the Paswans in this protected category.
• In his last switch, Paswan joined forces with the BJP and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (U). But he had receded to the background due to illness, and finally passed away last year.
• His son Chirag Paswan inherited his father’s mantle—and abiding dislike for Nitish.

The too-clever Paswan plot

When the Bihar elections came around in October, Chirag decided to be too clever for his own good. He broke with the NDA alliance, and positioned LJP as an independent party. But the aim was solely to bring down Nitish, not the BJP. Here’s how the plan unfolded:

One: Chirag positioned himself as Modi-ji’s “Hanuman”—even calling on voters to vote for the lotus in seats his party was not contesting. He declared that LJP had zero interest in the CM gaddi, and would be more than happy with a BJP-led government. All this while he fervently campaigned for a Nitish-free Bihar. 

Two: Chirag engineered his entire electoral strategy around weakening Nitish—while protecting the BJP. As per their seat-sharing arrangement, the BJP contested 121 seats while Nitish’s JD(U) in 122. LJP fielded candidates in 136 constituencies—and 115 of them in RJD-contested seats, while ensuring it would not undercut the BJP in its constituencies.

The big plan: To help BJP become the dominant party in the state, and replace JD(U) as its key Dalit ally. 

Sweet success: Chirag managed to bring Nitish’s numbers down, and JD(U)’s seats fell from 70 to 43. In comparison, the BJP scored big with 74 seats. And the LJP effect was plain to see: In 27 seats, the margin by which the JD(U) lost was the same as the number of votes garnered by Chirag's party. In one fell swoop, Nitish was reduced to the junior partner in the alliance with the saffron party—his own CM gaddi now a gift from a benevolent bade bhai BJP. 

Not-so-sweet defeat: But LJP’s own political scorecard was dismal. It only scored a single seat in the Assembly. Chirag had essentially cut Nitish’s nose and managed to spite his own face. The outcome was a rude shock for Chirag, and his party leaders—who had never approved of the break-with-NDA plan—were furious.

Nitish’s great revenge

‘Family plot’: Enraged by his diminished status, the Bihar CM began plotting his revenge almost immediately. He targeted an LJP Member of Parliament and Chirag’s uncle Pashupati Paras Paswan. Paras—once Ram Vilas’ low-key but highly trusted brother—was extremely unhappy with Chirag’s anti-Nitish plan. And soon after the electoral walloping, the two had a Bollywood-style falling out—with Chirag telling Paras, “You are not my blood.” Paras’ response: “Your uncle is dead to you from now on.” Along with Paras, Nitish also zeroed in on Chirag’s cousin—Prince Raj Paswan, who is happily yet another LJP MP.

One-by-one: Over the months, LJP slowly began hemorrhaging its leaders. Earlier this year, the party’s single MLA defected to the JD(U), and its single member of the Bihar upper house joined the BJP. 

The final blow: Yesterday, Chirag lost control of his party. Five of LJP’s six MPs —including Paras and Prince Raj—rebelled against his leadership. They wrote to the Lok Sabha Speaker asking to be treated as a separate group—and demanded that Chirag be replaced as LJP’s parliamentary leader by Paras. The only LJP MP not part of this palace coup: Chirag himself. 

Paras laid down his cards soon after:

“Speaking to reporters on Monday morning, Mr. Paras said he had no complaints against his nephew and that he was only trying to rescue the party. He also, in the same breath, praised Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, calling him ‘vikas purush’, indicating that the party will not follow the line set by his nephew.”

The immediate nosedive 

So immediate was Chirag’s fall from grace that when he went to meet his uncle and cousin, he was left waiting in the car outside—and was denied an audience. Meanwhile, JD(U) crowed at Chirag’s comeuppance: “There is a saying — as you sow, so shall you reap.” 

And BJP sources threw him under the bus, blaming Chirag for “crossing the limits and reaching to a state of no compromise” during the election time. 

“‘Chirag has been under the bad influence of an aide and ended up committing political foolishness. Had Ram Vilas Paswan been alive, he would not have let it happen,’ said a BJP leader… However, the BJP sources claimed that it did not have any role in the latest developments. ‘But the changes in the party are good for both the JD(U) and the NDA,’ said a senior party leader.”

The bottomline: Of course, none of this makes a whit of difference to the political math in Bihar. The BJP is still in the driver’s seat, and Nitish is still struggling to regain his advantage. The one sitting this entire mess out: the other young heir apparent, Tejashwi Yadav—the son of good old Lalu Prasad. He is out of power but still leads the single-largest party with 75 seats.

Reading list

There isn’t much more to this story. India Today offers a backroom analysis of the coup. The Print has the scoop on how Nitish managed this feat. We did a curtain-raiser on the Bihar elections—and an analysis of the results. Both have more background on the parties and their political shenanigans.