The TLDR: In the middle of a giant second wave, we are witnessing a potential super-duper spreader event unfold—and no one is doing anything about it.

First, the numbers

We have officially raced past Brazil and are now #2 in terms of total number of Covid cases. Our official tally: 13.68 million. We added 160,695 cases on Monday (highest in the world)—and reported 864 new deaths. The sharpest increases were recorded in the Hindi heartland—with Bihar leading the way. Its numbers jumped by 334% compared to last week. The jump in Uttarakhand—where the Kumbh Mela is underway—was 175%. But as you will see, that number is very likely inaccurate.

Next, a quick intro to Kumbh

The mythology: The Mela’s origins can be traced to the Puranas. The story goes that the gods and demons fought over a ‘kumbh’ (vessel) containing amrit (elixir of life). As they tussled, the amrit spilled across four locations: Haridwar, Allahabad/Prayagraj, Nashik and Ujjain—and the Kumbh Mela alternates between these sacred pilgrimage sites. Devotees believe that during the Mela, the rivers turn into amrit—and bathing in them is therefore highly auspicious. 

The 2021 Haridwar Mela: There are different kinds of Kumbh Melas, varying in their importance. The most important is the Mahakumbh which is held every 12 years. But this time, it is being held a year ahead of schedule. The reason as offered by the religious leaders is a bit vague: “After more than 100 years the Kumbh will be held earlier. It is happening because of specific auspicious dates.”

The logistics: The actual site of the event spans over 156 square kilometres across three districts. Typically, a Kumbh Mela lasts three to four months, but this one has officially been limited to a month (April 1-30) because of the pandemic. That said, back in March, 3.5 million took the dip to mark Mahashivratri. 

The shahi snan: These are specific days which are considered especially auspicious, and this year they fall on April 12, 14 and 27. The numbers of pilgrims skyrocket on these days.

Point to note: If it is any consolation, there is historical precedent for the current calamity:

“The Kumbh Mela of 1918 took place during the worst pandemic in modern history—the so-called ‘Spanish’ flu—and the British colonial government tried to discourage pilgrims from attending by cancelling passenger trains. Even then… the gathering ‘was attended by three million [devotees] who covered the distance on foot and in bullock carts.’”

Now, a ground report

First, the numbers: The previous Kumbh in 2010 in Haridwar attracted seven million pilgrims per day. This year, the government expects an average of one million pilgrims a day. But on Monday—which was a shahi snan day—2.8 million pilgrims showed up to take a holy dip. 

Next, the visuals: The crowds at the ghats looked like this:

And this:

And the mood of the crowd was perfectly summed up by this gentleman:

Total loss of control 

Before the Mela kicked off, the government had established clear standard operating procedures that must be followed to minimise the spread. In fact, this was the justification for green-lighting such a hazardous exercise. The other: Officials expected that turnout would be limited due to the pandemic. Neither expectation has come true.

The SOPs: Here’s the protocol established to ensure Covid safety:

• All pilgrims entering the Mela site must show a compulsory negative RT-PCR test report not older than 72 hours. Or else they must be subjected to a rapid test on the spot.
• They must adhere to all social distancing protocols—including wearing face masks. 
• There will be thermal screening at all Mela sites, including the bathing ghats.
• Numbers at the ghats will be strictly regulated to ensure social distancing. 
• There will be strict sanitization procedures at all locations.

Last but not least: The government boasted of AI-enabled CCTV cameras ready to swoop in and identify offenders not wearing face masks—and who will be immediately punished and handed a free mask.

Here’s what actually happened yesterday:

Testing: Of the 2.8 million pilgrims, only 18,169 were tested between 11.30 pm Sunday and 5 pm Monday—and 102 turned up positive. Indian Express only saw 50 people being asked to produce their Covid-negative reports—and at least 15 did not have them but were let through. At the highly popular Har-ki-Pauri ghat, only 11 rapid tests were conducted, of which one turned up positive. The healthcare workers said:

“‘Those who came to get tested did so voluntarily,’ said a staff member, speaking on condition of anonymity. At a test facility near Mela Bhawan, which is on the return route for the akharas, a four-member medical team confirmed that ‘not a single test has been done here today. We cannot stop them and ask them to get tested.’”

Also MIA: any sign of thermal screening.

Social distancing: Indian Express traveled an area of over 10 km—from the railway station in Haridwar, the iconic Har-ki-Pauri and the ghats. There was no sign of action taken against those without masks. The police’s explanation:

“Challans for not wearing masks and thermal screening were avoided today to prevent crowding at any specific location.. We focused more on crowd management today and hence screening and checking of reports near the ghats were avoided.”

AWOL akharas: None of the akharas (religious congregations) followed any form of Covid safety within their camps—even though some of their leaders have already tested positive. Note: the same infected leaders also went to the ghats for their dip. And the police were especially wary of annoying the akharas:

“Implementing Covid-19 guidelines is practically not possible during the procession of akhadas and shahi snan at Har-ki-Pauri and it could have caused a stampede-like situation if we started issuing challans.”

Point to note: Uttarakhand Chief Minister Tirath Singh Rawat said, “We have followed the Government of India’s guidelines 100%.” But this is also the guy who said in mid-March that pilgrims will not be required to show Covid-negative tests to enter the ghats.

The biggest worry: is not just spiralling infections within the Mela—but also the wider spread that will occur when these pilgrims go back home.

Bottomline: When pressed on the fear of infection, one of the akhara leaders said: “I am not wearing a mask because I know Ganga maiya (mother) will take away my Covid if I get it by any chance.” Clearly, the government is in no mood to argue with that kind of logic. Not when the Jagatguru Shankaracharya pointedly asks: “Where did the coronavirus go in the states where elections were held? How did the coronavirus make a comeback as soon as the elections were over?”

Reading list

Indian Express and Times of India have the best reporting from the ground. For the history of Kumbh, we highly recommend The Conversation. Quint has a good primer on the Mela and its significance. Two incisive reads drawing parallels to the Tablighi Jamaat event last year in The Print—which calls out the double standard—and The Wire, which shows how very different the two religious events were.