Germans went to polls over the weekend to elect a replacement for the woman who has ruled them for 16 long years. And they don’t seem to have made up their mind. The latest results indicate a close tie between the leading parties. But since both plan to hook up with the left-leaning Greens party to form a coalition, expect a post-Merkel Germany closely focused on climate change.
First, let’s talk about how the peculiar German electoral system works. It was designed in the post-World War II era to avoid the kind of splintering that brought Adolf Hitler to power—with just 37.4% of the vote. Here’s how it works:
The parties: The two major parties are the left-of-centre Social Democratic party (SPD) and right-leaning Christian Democratic Union (CDU)—which current Chancellor Angela Merkel leads. Interestingly, the current government was formed by a coalition between these two parties. The smaller parties that help form a ruling coalition are the left-leaning Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP)—which represents pro-business liberals.
The Social Democrats narrowly won Sunday's national election with 25.8% of the vote—ahead of the Christian Democrats who scored 24.1%. As a result, both parties believe they can form the government. But this time around, they are unlikely to form an alliance with each other. Everyone expects a three-way coalition with the Greens (14.6%) and Free Democrats (11.5%) in the mix—which would be the first in German history.
Amusing point to note: Each party is represented by its own colour—and therefore each likely coalition has its own nickname. For example: ‘traffic light’—which is red (SPD), yellow (FDP) and the Greens.
A big win for the left: While the results are close, they represent a remarkable comeback for the Social Democrats who gained 10 points in the polls within just three months—and have vastly improved on their 20.5% showing in 2017. And it represents a big swing to the left after 16 years of conservative rule.
A big defeat for the right: Bucking the rightward trend in the rest of Europe, the Germans have decisively voted for a left-of-centre government. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is on track to get 10.5% of the vote—which is worse than four years ago when it entered parliament for the very first time with 12.6% of the vote.
Well, it depends on who forms the government—but either way, it will be a man this time around.
Armin Laschet: is the chairman of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and Merkel’s heir to the party throne. But he has been blamed for the CDU’s sudden slip in the polls in recent months. What you need to know:
Olaf Scholz: was both vice-chancellor and Merkel’s finance minister in the coalition government. What you need to know:
What they share: is a total lack of charisma—which is their biggest selling point. Unlike most other democracies, boring is good in Germany—which has been wary of charisma ever since the rise of Hitler. And since citizens don’t directly elect their chancellor, being good on television or connecting with voters isn’t going to get you the job. After his party’s win, this is the exciting promise Scholz made to voters: “a good, pragmatic government for Germany.”
The bottomline: Indians devotely support Narendra Modi and consider Indira Gandhi the greatest Prime Minister ever. Manmohan Singh was widely heckled for being, yes, boring. Will we ever get over our addiction to charisma?
BBC News and Reuters have the latest on the results. For an explainer on the German electoral system, check out Sky News and The Conversation. New York Times has a delightful piece on the German aversion to charismatic politicians. We didn’t get into Merkel’s legacy, but if you’re interested:
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