Editor’s note: The ‘kutti’ in our subject title—'Clash of the Kuttis' is the Tamil word for ‘little one’—not the Hindi word for female dogs… just saying!
The not-so-epic battle for Tamil Nadu
The TLDR: Once the land of political giants, the state is witnessing an election populated with wannabes—each vying to fill far-too-large shoes of those who have gone before them.
Former land of giants
Tamil Nadu has always had politicians that soared like colossuses above throngs of adoring mere mortals. First Periyar, MG Ramachandran, and then Amma Jayalalithaa and Kalaignar Karunanidhi. Where MGR was merely ‘Aayirathil Oruvan’ or ‘one among thousands’, his political heir upped the ante in 2014 with: “Any CM can do good things, but only Amma can do God things.”
Sadly, those glory days are behind us. The ‘two leaves’ in the AIADMK symbol no longer soar high like the wings of a golden Pegasus. They are instead symbolic of the uneasy alliance between its two Ps—Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) and Deputy Chief Minister Ottakarathevar Panneerselvam (OPS). And all the party can offer voters are towering cardboard cutouts of party unity.
The reign of the seat warmers
As with Oscar ceremonies, Tamil Nadu politics has sometimes required superstars to rope in lackeys to occupy the Chief Minister seat in their absence. But today, the seat warmers are all we have left while the stars have long exited the stage.
A dharma yuddham: O Paneerselvam was recruited three times to warm the CM throne in Jayalalithaa’s absence—and was serving the last stint when she died on December 5 in 2016. Then on February 5 2017, he abruptly resigned citing personal reasons—and Sasikala was anointed as the leader of the AIADMK party the very same day. Three days later, he launched a ‘dharma yuddham’ against Sasikala—implying her involvement in Amma’s death (reportedly with BJP’s encouragement).
A Supreme Court shocker: But within 10 days, the Court sent Sasikala to jail in a disproportionate assets case—i.e. she had more money than she could possibly account for. So she picked her seat-warmer: E Palaniswami—who managed to barely survive a vote of no-confidence. But what he could not endure: relentless BJP anti-Sasikala campaign which included income tax raids on high-ranking AIADMK officials.
BJP-brokered betrayal: So six months later—realising which side of his dosai is buttered—EPS stabbed Sasikala in the back, made up with OPS, and appointed him Deputy Chief Minister. The holy union of acronyms has endured since, like two Ps in an unquiet political pod.
Meanwhile, over at the DMK...
After his father Karunanidhi’s death, Stalin easily eliminated his elder brother MK Alagiri in a pale imitation of ‘Succession’—with Alagiri putting up less of a fight than Kendall Roy. And unlike his acronym-saddled rivals, the grandiosely christened Stalin has lived up to his name—imposing a dictatorial consolidation of power that would make even Amma proud. And he’s already put his son and son-in-law in prominent posts, ensuring that the dynastic wars will continue long after him.
Stalin has also inherited the great Tamil tradition of political hubris, welding himself to his party’s symbol: the rising sun (son!). The party slogan: “Stalin Thaan Vararu, Vidiyal Thara Poraru” (Stalin is coming, He will bring us the dawn). Also, the party ads almost always end like this:
The great albatross outsider
In their smug self-importance, residents of the Hindi belt rarely suspect the great disdain in which they are held by so-called ‘Madrasis’. And nowhere is it more apparent than in TN politics—where the BJP is struggling to get a foothold in political slopes made slippery by outright hostility to all things ‘Hindi/Hindu/Hindustan’.
The score card: The party scored a big fat duck in both the 2011 and 2016 assembly elections. Its best performance to date: 4 seats in 2001 in alliance with the DMK. And that is likely the reason the AIADMK has only given 20 seats to the lotus party to contest. Another reason: Seething anger among minority communities and loyal AIADMK supporters at its perceived kowtowing to BJP’s will. So much so that the party was forced to clarify that its alliance with the BJP is only “electoral,” and there is no “mingling of ideologies.”
The anti-Modi factor: Of all the states in India, the PM is the least popular in Tamil Nadu. In a 2019 survey, only 2.2% were satisfied with his performance. In comparison, the number even in Bengal was a healthy 43.2%. Hence, the ongoing election joke where DMK candidates literally beg him to come campaign for their rivals. Not joking: The AIADMK minister who wrote to EPS asking him to stop the Shah-Modi jodi from campaigning in the state since “their presence could affect the victory prospects of the AIADMK candidates.”
And for some odd reason, Shah’s paeans to Tamil—“one of the oldest and sweetest languages”—and Modi-ji’s attempts at reciting Thiruvalluvar poetry have not helped:
The new plan: Plastering giant cutouts of K Kamaraj and MGR at Modi rallies to ‘Tamil’ them up. One slight problem: Kamaraj is the former Congress CM of Tamil Nadu. Chee, chee!
Ram Janmabhoomi Vetrivel yatra: Everyone knows that the BJP can throw a mean yatra. So no one can blame them for turning to a winning recipe with the Vetrivel (victory spear) yatra, using a ‘search/replace’ function to replace Lord Ram with Lord Murugan. And by happy coincidence, the name of the BJP state party chief: L Murugan—who is a member of the Dalit community, no less.
The yatra went ahead despite being denied permission from their own allies AIADMK— and ended with Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan declaring in Hindi, “The yatra will wipe out anti-national and anti-Hindu forces in the state like how Lord Murugan defeated demons.” So yeah, search/replace has its limitations. But hey, the rally may have been a total flop, but we now have the image of Murugan playing Murugan burned into our brain:
OTOH: While BJP bestie AIADMK was furious at both the yatra—and its promotional video drawing parallels between Murugan and MGR—DMK actually played along, with Stalin posing with his own vel:
Given the avowedly atheistic ideology of the Dravidian parties, this definitely counts as a win for the BJP.
Point to note: While the BJP is sure to be a dud in places like Kanyakumari, the one constituency where it has a shot at victory: South Coimbatore—where it will go up against Kamal Haasan, no less!
The bottomline: Results of the exit polls from the April 6 election won’t be out until May 2. But all opinion polls signal a comfortable victory for the Stalin-led DMK—which will cement his grip on the party. A defeat for AIADMK will give new hope for the now-sidelined OPS, and more importantly Sasikala. And as always for the BJP, in chaos lies opportunity.
Reading list
- The New Indian Express lists all the big players and Print helps you navigate the ‘political sambhar’ of acronyms that define Tamil politics.
- To learn more about OPS, check out Indian Express’ 2017 profile.
- Scroll does an excellent job of tracing Stalin’s rise to power—and the steps he’s taken to stay there.
- Quint decodes Sasikala’s decision to quit politics.
- Two good Dalit-related reads: Indian Express also has a primer on Dalit politics in the state. The Print explains why the BJP is trying to win over the Devendrakula Vellalars.
- The Wire has a good read on the key role played by caste in TN elections.
- Newslaundry reports on the online advertising wars.
- The Telegraph looks at the BJP’s attempt to appropriate MGR. Indian Express looks at why the BJP alliance is a burden for AIADMK. NewsLaundry explains why AIADMK is still sticking by its saffron friend.
- The Print explains why the BJP is feeling confident about taking on Kamal Haasan.
- For the history of Tamil Nadu politics, check out The News Minute’s video series titled #DravidianChronicles.