The TLDR: Tens of thousands of Russians have taken to the streets to protest the arrest of Opposition leader Alexei Navalny. There have been plenty of protests in Russia before, and the Russian president has put them down with ease. But this time around, Putin is worried—and for good reason.

Some quick background

• Alexei Navalny—a 44-year-old lawyer-turned-activist—runs an organisation called Anti-Corruption Foundation, which has done several exposes on Vladimir Putin’s inner circle. He has also led massive protests against the government, starting in 2011. 
• In August, he was the target of an assasination attempt when Russian intelligence agents laced his underwear with a deadly nerve agent (see our explainer here). 
• Navalny’s team rushed him out of the country to Germany—where he recovered after remaining in a coma for weeks. 
• Kremlin did its best to discourage him from returning to Russia—even issuing an arrest warrant. 
• But Navalny insisted on coming back home, saying, "Russia is my country, Moscow is my city, I miss them.”
• He was arrested the moment he landed in Moscow on January 17. The authorities also detained Navalny’s wife and brother and raided the offices and residences of his team.
• On February 3, he was sentenced to two years and eight months in a penal colony for violating the probation terms of a previous conviction for fraud—which has been described as ‘trumped up’.  
• His arrest and sentencing became the flashpoint for the biggest anti-government protests in recent years.

Ok, how big are these protests?

Over the past week, hundreds of thousands of Russians took to the streets across 11 time zones and in 122 cities—all of them chanting “Putin is a thief” and “Down with the czar.” Here’s a bird’s eye view of the numbers in Moscow:

Defiant protesters even gathered in minus-50 Celsius weather in Siberia to express their rage: 

But this has happened before…

Yes, 2011/12, thousands of people demonstrated against electoral fraud Putin’s impending return to power. But these were quickly stifled with the collusion of the police and the courts. But these protests are different in key ways.

Pandemic rage: As Wall Street Journal notes, the protests are taking place amid rising poverty levels and rising inflation—triggered by a 20% decline in the value of the ruble last year. In 2020, nearly 20 million Russians were below the official poverty line. The economic pain has been made worse by the pandemic—which many Russians say Putin hasn’t done enough to ease.  The average disposable income dropped by more than 10% from January to September 2020. 

And Navalny has done his bit to fuel the rage. Right after his arrest, Navalny’s team put out a YouTube video that allegedly shows a $1.35 billion palace owned by Putin—and financed by his fat cat friends. It has been viewed 87 million times.  A lawyer at one of the protests said:

"We have a real problem with corruption, on the one hand, and with poverty, on the other hand… People are more scared of the fact that they don’t see a decent future for themselves… That’s why I will be [protesting] until the end of Putin’s political regime.” 

A nationwide protest: Most previous uprisings were limited to Moscow—or were regional in nature. Russian experts note that demonstrations occurred in over 100 cities—including places where overt anti-government activity is rare. One of them points out that the relatively small numbers (compared to millions in other parts of the world) are still significant:

“And remember that the turnout was against the background of widespread intimidation — arrest of opposition leaders, warnings to students they will be kicked out of schools and college, plus restrictions in social media and the internet, and very cold weather.”

Point to note: Previous demonstrations over the past decade were always held with official permission. This time around, no one is waiting to get a permit—and hence the risk of arrest is far higher. 

The age factor: Despite his dictatorial ways, Putin has always been hugely popular. But his ratings are plummeting with young people. In a recent survey, 46% of Russians aged 18-24 said they did not approve of Putin—a sharp rise from the 31% who said the same last year. But his overall approval ratings (64%) remain strong thanks to older Russians.

A new kind of protester: At least 40% of the people in these demonstrations are first time protesters. More importantly, the most militant are not typical pro-democracy liberals. Moscow Times describes them as young, urban, post-industrial employees who are unhappy with their white collar jobs and their prospects. And many are not necessarily supporters of Navalny, but are furious at the way he has been treated—with no respect for the law. All of which makes the protests far more broad-based than before:

“Saturday’s protests were undeniably anti-regime, anti-elite, and anti-corruption, but not necessarily liberal, pro-Western, and pro-democracy. It’s not surprising that such protests frighten not only the authorities, but also successful members of society: even those who don’t consider themselves supporters of the regime.”

So should Putin be worried?

He is certainly worried enough to unleash a ferocious campaign to squash the protests. Police have detained record numbers of protesters across Russia—the largest since Putin was first elected in 2000. The number of detainees was so high that detention facilities in Moscow ran out of space. See one example of the overkill below:

The Navalny threat: Putin refuses to call Navalny by name and has started referring to him as “the Berlin patient”—to fuel the official narrative that he is a foreign agent. And while many Russians have their doubts about Navalny—not least because of his own nationalist background—they increasingly see him as a symptom of a greater disease. And imprisoning him may not get rid of him, as The Conversation notes:

“This is an important moment for Russia. Now that Navalny faces a lengthy prison term, he could become a potent symbol of a lawless regime that is afraid of its people—and further energise the opposition.”

The 2021 elections: While Putin is not personally running for office, his ruling party faces parliamentary elections this year. United Russia currently holds 335 out of 450 seats in the State Duma. But Navalny’s arrest may become a factor that moves votes, according to some Russian experts:

“This is where the current movement led by Mr. Navalny differs from the 2011 and ’12 protests. Alongside his anti-corruption message, he has developed a “smart voting” strategy designed to draw voters to whichever candidates are best placed to beat United Russia incumbents, turning scattered protest votes into a more targeted rejection of the status quo.”

United Russia is polling at about 30% right now—and is feeling nervous about its chances. 

The bottomline: Putin’s problem is perhaps best summed up as this:

“But over the coming weeks and months, Mr. Putin faces a dilemma. Cracking down too severely would only fuel dissent, while rigging the September elections too blatantly would damage the democratic facade on which Mr. Putin’s power depends. Allow Mr. Navalny’s movement to grow, however, and the Kremlin may face an electoral challenge for which it is unprepared.”

Reading list

Washington Post rounds up the views of leading Russian experts. BBC News  and Wall Street Journal have good overviews of the protests. Moscow Times has the best analysis of the new anti-Putin protester. This New York Times op-ed on Putin’s weakness is excellent. Also in NYT: A very good photo gallery of both the protests, and the crackdown. The Conversation analyses Navalny’s threat to Putin. Vox explains why the Putin palace video matters. Read our explainer on Navalny’s poisoning.