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China’s 1.8 kilometre concession

The TLDR: China and India have agreed to move back by 1.8 km from the location of the Galwan encounter—where 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a violent confrontation at the Ladakh border. For now, however, there is little indication of a similar retreat in other areas along the Line of Control. What’s notable: Beijing did not assert its right to Galwan Valley for the first time in recent months. Then again, neither did India.

What’s happened now?

The conversation: National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks on Sunday. The outcome: depends on which statement you read. 

The Indian statement: declares that both sides agreed to “ensure a phased and stepwise de-escalation,” “strictly respect and observe the Line of Actual Control,” and “not take any unilateral action to alter the status quo.” It did not assign any blame or mention Galwan for that matter.

The Chinese statement: highlights the need for “complete disengagement of the frontline troops as soon as possible.” It  said the “right and wrong” of what happened in Galwan is “very clear.” And it insisted that “China will continue firmly safeguarding our territorial sovereignty.” The statement did not, however, stake claim to Galwan itself. 

Point to note: Government sources are ascribing this breakthrough to Doval—who was brought in because Wang’s previous talks with his Indian counterpart, S Jaishankar, were “frosty.”

So what’s the actual outcome?

There has been no official confirmation, but this is what military sources told the Indian Express:

• Chinese and Indian troops have moved back 1.8 km from the site of the June 15 battle.
• Each side will only station 30 soldiers at this new location. 
• The Chinese camp that was the trigger for the confrontation has been dismantled.
• There will be a ‘buffer zone' that neither side will enter or patrol—but it’s on the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control. 
• Other such buffer zones will be created along the border, but no one knows their size or if they will be permanent.

But, but, but:  An Indian Defence Ministry official played down this ‘retreat’ in The Telegraph:

“They are still very much present in Indian territory in the Galwan Valley over which they have claimed sovereignty. It need not be called disengagement at this stage as it is nothing substantive yet. As of now, this is just a minor pullback from the face-off site.”

Another Intelligence official says the troops pulled back due to geography, not diplomacy. The reason: rising water levels are making it difficult to hold positions near the Galwan river.

Important point to note: It isn’t clear if this 1.8 km ‘retreat’ still leaves Chinese troops in Indian-claimed territory. As one veteran points out: “The important question is, 1km from which spot? If they (Chinese troops) have moved back from the face-off site, it means they are still inside India’s claim line. And why are we moving back in our own territory?”

But is the fighting over?

If this is indeed a first step, it is just the beginning of what’s called ‘disengagement’—where troops pull back and dial down the aggression. And this modest disengagement has only occurred at Galwan. There is no sign of a step back in Lake Pangong where the Chinese buildup looks like this:

There were also recent reports of Chinese troops crossing the LAC in the Depsang plains—up to a point that is 18 km on the Indian side. 

Point to note: The government appears to have put aside the incursions in Depsang and Pangong as the “immediate aim” is to first ease the heightened tensions.

So now what?

Most experts agree that it is dangerous to talk about disengagement without a restoration of the status quo on the border. Back in 2017—when India and China were in a similar standoff in Doklam—both sides agreed to back down. But Beijing has since built critical roads, buildings and trenches in the region—some of which extend into territory claimed by India.  

Er, is TikTok coming back or not?

Lol! We don’t know. But even officials talking up the ‘breakthrough’ are cautious, and say they are keeping “a close watch.” None of that indicates a big U-turn on our China policy. 

The bottomline: Former Foreign Secretary Nirupama Menon Rao tweeted out this newspaper headline from July 15, 1962—just months before India and China went to war. It’s a history lesson worth revisiting.

Reading list

• Indian Express has the most details on the 1.8 km pullback. 
• Times of India has more on the unofficial story of a ‘breakthrough’.
• The Telegraph compares the two statements on Ladakh, and reports on doubts raised about the ‘disengagement’.
• Suhasini Haidar writes about the lesson of Doklam in The Hindu.
• We did an explainer on the ground situation at the three areas of conflict on the Ladakh border. 
• Also read: our in-depth explainer on the history of India’s border dispute with China—and its claims on Galwan valley.
• Speaking of TikTok, Mint has an excellent piece on the race to build an Indian version before its return—and where our desi apps fall short.