the big story

A shocking confrontation with China

The TLDR: Since April, Indian and Chinese troops have clashed repeatedly at the borders. Yesterday—in the midst of talk of an ‘accord’—the situation swiftly escalated into an all-out confrontation. 20 Indian soldiers have died, and there are unconfirmed reports of 43 Chinese deaths. The historic reason for this ugly situation: Beijing’s refusal to define the border between the two nations. The immediate reason: China’s need to assert its dominance in the wake of the pandemic—right when its rivals are weak.

First, tell me what happened

The confrontation occurred in Galwan Valley in Ladakh. The two sides were holding “disengagement” talks—to figure out how to step back—and agreed on a buffer zone. Then this happened:

• Chinese soldiers started to build a new post—but on the Indian side of the buffer zone. 
• The Commanding Officer—Colonel Santosh Babu—insisted they remove the post, which soon resulted in a physical confrontation.
• There were no guns involved. But Indian officers claim that the Chinese used used “sticks, clubs, bats, bamboos with nails.”
• Three Indians were killed on the spot—the CO and two soldiers—who were reportedly attacked with iron rods. Another 17 who were critically wounded or suffered from hypothermia later succumbed to their injuries.
• There are unconfirmed news reports that anywhere between 13-34 Indian soldiers are still missing. 
• China’s state-run Global Times claimed five People’s Liberation Army soldiers were killed and 11 injured in the clash. ANI puts the number of Chinese casualties at 43, including the dead and seriously injured.

So they’re trying to take our territory?

When it comes to “our territory,” there are two key facts to keep in mind.

One: the border between India and China has never been defined. Both sides make claims to vast swathes of territory—which is disputed by the other. What we have instead is the Line of Actual Control. It is, in fact, the ceasefire line, established after the 1962 war.

Critical point to note: While India has readily shared its version of the map to indicate its claims, China refuses to do so—leaving Beijing free to claim various border areas at will. And it has repeatedly done that in the past. 

Two: The border dispute between India and China is not minor. China currently occupies a vast 38,000 sq km stretch of Aksai Chin in Ladakh—and has zero plans to cede it. Our official map of J&K has always been a bit of wishful thinking.  

Just as importantly, China stakes its claim to 90,000 sq km of Indian territory in the East—right across Arunachal Pradesh. In fact, the last violent confrontation happened in that region in 1975—when an Indian patrol was ambushed by Chinese soldiers. 

So what is China claiming this time?

China has suddenly claimed Galwan Valley—which has always been under Indian control. In fact, here’s how the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson responded to this confrontation:

“China always owns sovereignty over the Galwan Valley region, and the Indian border defence troops are inconsistent with their words and seriously violated the agreements both countries have reached, the consensus made during the army commander-level talks and harmed the relations of the two militaries and the feelings of the two countries’ peoples.”

That “consensus” now presumably includes Chinese control of Galwan.

So it’s only Galwan?

 Also at stake: Pangong Tso—the world’s highest saltwater lake in Ladakh. The 135 km lake is defined in terms of eight ‘fingers’—which refer to the slopes of the surrounding mountains that jut into the lake at eight different points. A bit of trivia: the climax of ‘3 Idiots’ was shot there.

India controls the 45 km western portion, but our official claim extends to its easternmost ‘finger 8’. In recent months, Chinese troops have moved in all the way to Finger 4—and which led to this physical confrontation on May 30.

 According to Business Standard, we’ve lost a lot more than just the lake:

“Government sources conservatively estimate that the PLA has captured more than 60 square kilometres of Indian-patrolled territory in the last month—equally divided between the northern bank of the Pangong Lake and the Galwan River sectors.”

The map below shows the area of this “cartographic aggression”:

Why is this happening now?

There are a number of theories—and they are all probably true. 

One: China is eager to appear strong in the wake of the pandemic—and has been asserting itself across its borders, from the South China sea and Hong Kong to Sikkim and Ladakh. Foreign policy experts call this Wolf Warrior diplomacy.

Two: China is angry at India—which has been building roads, bridges and other kinds of infrastructure to enable better troop movement along the border. Also annoying Beijing: New Delhi’s recent decision to curtail Chinese investments in Indian companies—to promote aatma nirbhar Bharat. Plus: India’s increasingly cosy relationship with the United States, which isn’t getting along with Beijing either.

Three: Beijing is using its superior military might to fulfill a long-standing goal: control over Kashmir. After the government suspended Article 370—and gave Ladakh Union Territory status—China claimed the move was an attack on its “sovereignty.” 

Point to note: In Beijing’s view, large parts of the state belong to Tibet and the Chinese region of Xinjiang. These include China-controlled Aksai Chin, parts of Ladakh controlled by India, and Shaksgam Valley in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

So what now? 

🤷‍♀️. None of this is likely to lead to an all-out war. But it is clear that we are outmatched in every sense, be it economic or military. More importantly, China has steadily boxed us in—ploughing in investments in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, keeping Islamabad dependent and docile, and even inciting Nepal to stake territorial claims of its own. 

It is hard to see how the Indian government will get Beijing to back down—or back away from the areas it now occupies. The Chinese will ‘disengage’ if they want to—but not because we can make them.

Reading list: 

• The best overview and analysis of the border conflict: This podcast hosted by the experts over at The Diplomat. 
• The Hindu does a great job of summarising the history and answering key questions about the border.
• Indian Express has two good columns on the growing power differential between India and China here and here.
• This Telegraph story has the most quotes from former military sources and their view. This one covers the angle of India’s increasing isolation in its own neighbourhood.
• Business Standard via Rediff lays out how much territory we lost in this round.
• The Print explains the significance of Lake Pangong.
• Mint looks at how the tensions may boost domestic manufacturing.