The TLDR: More details of the violent encounter were leaked. PM Modi made a forceful statement, and calls for an anti-China boycott grew. But for all the talk of a truce, there is now a dangerous stalemate that may irrevocably alter the India-China relationship.
Do we know more about what happened?
Yes, and none of it dramatically alters the facts.
So what is the Indian government doing?
The PM spoke: in a televised statement (watch him here):
“I would like to assure the nation that the sacrifice of our jawans will not be in vain. For us, the unity and sovereignty of the country is the most important... India wants peace but it is capable to give a befitting reply if instigated.”
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh also tweeted: “Our soldiers displayed exemplary courage and valour in the line of duty and sacrificed their lives in the highest traditions of the Indian Army.”
Pointed omission: Neither mentioned China by name.
The foreign ministers spoke: to one another on the phone. And they appear only to agree on one point: No further escalation. New Delhi insisted that China “should strictly respect and observe the Line of Actual Control and should not take any unilateral action to alter it.” Beijing, OTOH, doubled down on its territorial claim, saying it “owns sovereignty over the Galwan Valley region.”
Translation: We will not move back our forces in Galwan. FYI: China has now claimed 60 km of territory controlled by India along the Line of Actual Control.
Military went on alert: The Army, Navy and Air Force have been placed on high alert, and additional troops have been sent to the border. And there is unsourced talk of the Indian Army adopting a more aggressive protocol on the border.
Economic payback? Indian intelligence agencies have asked the government to block 52 mobile apps linked to China—including Zoom and Tik Tok. The government also slammed the door in the face of Huawei—which had hopes of bringing 5G to India. It has banned all telecommunications companies from partnering with Chinese companies.
Some Indians—like this person in Surat—implemented their own form of China boycott:
Point to note: An economic cold war isn’t good news for Indian companies—be it startups like Zomato that are funded by Alibaba, or Tata Motors which sells cars in China. But as Mint reports, a swing away from ‘Made in China’ products could benefit a number of Indian companies, as well.
Sounds like a build up to war…
Neither side has the appetite for a full-blown conflict nor the resources to fight one in the middle of a pandemic. But the stakes of climbing down are high for both Modi and President Xi who have built their leadership around an aggressive form of nationalism.
The Modi dilemma: Yesterday, social media was abuzz with jeering questions about the Balakot strike—which was launched in retaliation for the death of just 19 soldiers. And Rahul Gandhi tweeted: “Why is he hiding? Enough is enough. We need to know what has happened. How dare China kill our soldiers? How dare they take our land?”
The Xi doctrine: OTOH, Xi has responded to China’s pandemic woes by taking an uber-aggressive stance along the nation’s borders. As The Guardian points out, this latest aggression has been months in the making:
“Chinese state media have reported the PLA is conducting joint military exercises ‘aimed at the destruction of key hostile hubs in a high-elevation mountainous region.’ The PLA Tibet Military Command conducted live fire drills with heavy artillery on Tuesday, with reports linking the PLA’s preparedness for high-elevation combat to the clashes with India.”
Point to note: Satellite images released by the private company Planet Labs show a huge buildup of Chinese troops along the LAC—despite the agreement to de-escalate and move back.
Not just Galwan: Defence analyst Ajai Shukla lays out multiple points of Chinese incursion and buildup along the Indian border—each opening up a new front that India has to defend. Experts describe this strategy as ‘salami slicing’—i.e. slowly shaving off tiny slices of territory over time, while never escalating to an outright war. But in this case, it seems to have backfired, provoking a serious confrontation.
Some bright spots: One, US State Secretary Mike Pompeo met with the Chinese Foreign Minister Yang in Hawaii—on the request of Beijing. Ladakh was most certainly on the agenda. The US has been publicly unsympathetic to China’s territorial incursions—and a closer relationship with Washington may offer New Delhi some leverage in this greatly unequal relationship.
Two, India just took a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council, and with unanimous backing of its members. New Delhi can now make sure that its concerns are heard and given equal weight on the global stage.
The bottomline: The Ladakh face-off will definitely have consequences. Modi-Xi bromance is most certainly dead—the PM didn’t even wish him happy bur-day this year. And while a war is unlikely, more Galwans loom in the future. In the words of one security expert, “India may have to be prepared for a series of limited skirmishes to occasional conflicts. Maybe that is the new normal in our region.”
Broken fences make bad neighbours.
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