In part one of this series, we looked at why this is a big-stakes election for the BJP, Narendra Modi—and the party’s push in South India. If Modi’s charisma, polarisation or desh bhakti doesn’t work, the election may well be determined by old-fashioned caste calculations. What does that math look like? And what do the polls say?
Researched by: Nirmal Bhansali
A quick & easy recap
Here’s all you need to know about the election, if you’re not going to check out part one:
- The BJP won 25 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats in 2019—and is very keen on repeating the feat. If nothing else, it will be very difficult to hit ‘char sau paar’ without a strong performance.
- Congress is desperate to leverage its massive win in the Assembly elections—having been decimated pretty much everywhere else in 2023—including Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
- More than ever, Congress is looking to South India (and specifically Karnataka) for redemption.
- BJP needs a big victory to become a truly all-India party—and finally win over the South which has proved very hard to get.
But, but, but: The BJP is anxious about the traction—or lack thereof—of its Hindutva card. Also worrying: being rejected at the national level—especially in Karnataka which is the one South Indian state that truly hearts Modi. It will be a sign that the Modi magic is beginning to wane—at least in its sole foothold in the South.
All of this while being weighed down by a bickering and weak state wing. This is now a fight between the state Congress party and the BJP national party—with the former hoping regional politics—i.e caste—will carry the day.
Caste in Karnataka: What or who matters
Karnataka politics is dominated by the rivalry between two dominant communities—Lingayats and Vokkaligas. The Lingayats only account for 14-16% of the population—and the Vokkaliga numbers are even smaller: 10-11%. Yet, MLAs belonging to these two castes won roughly half the seats in the 2018 assembly election.
BJP’s Vokkaliga problem: The party has successfully wooed the Lingayats, but Vokkaligas have traditionally voted for either Congress or JD(S). They dominate 11 districts in South Karnataka aka ”Old Mysore”—which has 61 assembly seats. The BJP cannot win big without making inroads into Vokkaliga territory. But it has to hold on to the Lingayats, as well.
The JD(S) solution: The BJP has tried to solve its problem by allying itself with the Deve Gowda-led party. The JD(S) primary claim to electoral fame: its monopoly of the Vokkaliga vote. That advantage has made it a formidable regional player. But in the 2023 election, JD(S) lost a great part of its base to both the Congress and BJP:
The 2023 assembly election result was a clear pointer. The BJP made significant inroads into the Vokkaliga heartland. While this did not translate into seats, the party did record a significant increase in vote share in the Old Mysore region. Importantly, the Congress also made significant vote share gains amongst Vokkaligas.
The bizarre alliance with its old nemesis—the BJP—is a desperate bid for survival. The BJP in turn is hoping that the two parties can consolidate the Vokkaliga vote behind the NDA.
FYI: The BJP gave the JD(S) only three seats to contest. One of the critical contests will be the Deve Gowda clan’s bid to win back the family bastion: Mandya. Gowda’s grandson—Nikhil—lost the Assembly seat to an Independent candidate who is now in the BJP fold. It was a humiliating loss for the family. Now, Deve Gowda’s son and heir HD Kumaraswamy is under pressure to recover its pride:
Kumaraswamy’s followers are convincing the voters that their leader’s victory is essential to keep the JD(S) alive which in turn is necessary to safeguard the interest of the Vokkaliga community. His ardent fans believe a win could earn him a central ministry and thus revive his flailing political career.
The DK challenge: The Congress’ ace is Deputy CM and state Congress chief DK Shivkumar. He is also—most importantly—a Vokkaliga leader:
The rise of DK Shivakumar, in the Congress, has been an important factor in the shift of Vokkaliga votes towards the party. He represents the emergence of a non-JD(S) Vokkaliga leadership. In 2023, Shivakumar was the architect of Congress’ strong performance in the Old Mysore region. From ticket distribution to micromanaging the party’s strategy in every seat, Shivakumar ensured that a significant chunk of Vokkaliga voters saw Congress as a viable option.
DK aims to snatch the baton of Vokkaliga leadership from Deve Gowda—while his progeny do their best to prevent it.
Point to note: DK’s brother Suresh—who is also the Congress’ lone MP from Karnataka—is taking on Dr CN Manjunath, BJP candidate and Kumaraswamy’s brother-in-law. The bigger play: “Suresh’s victory in this election will undeniably cement Shivakumar’s rise as the preeminent leader of the Vokkaliga community and strengthen his claims to the chair of the chief minister.” In the end, Indian netas keep everything in the family.
Keeping Yeddy happy: New Delhi has always been at odds with the man who won them Karnataka—BS Yediyurappa. His incorrigibly Kannadiga worldview and methods have rubbed against the central leadership’s need to have everyone sing from the same Modi+Hindutva hymn book. But the BJP needs Yeddy to hold the Lingayats—a lesson it learned again in 2023 when the former CM was relegated to the sidelines. Picking another Lingayat CM—Basavaraj Bommai—didn’t help much.
Hindutva in the back seat: This time around, the Shah-Modi combine appointed Yeddy’s son BY Vijayendra as the party’s state president—and have given him near-total control over candidate selection. This is one reason why many of the Hindutva hotheads have been pushed aside—so much so that former deputy CM KS Eshwarappa complained: “Karnataka’s BJP is in control of one family, and we are protesting against this. All those people who are talking about Hindutva have been sidelined.”
As Hindustan Times notes:
The assembly elections were a wake-up call for the BJP as its high-voltage Hindutva campaign with a pronounced anti-Muslim edge turned out to be disastrous—the Congress won 135 of the 224 assembly seats. It appears to have gone back to the communitarian [caste] politics pioneered by its tallest state leader, BS Yediyurappa and even denied seats to some of the Hindutva poster boys. On test are the tactical skills of Yediyurappa, the cadre base of the JD(S) and the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The Siddaramaiah assist: As a member of the Kuruba community, the Chief Minister has brought the Dalit and tribal vote into play. Along with party chief Mallikarjun Kharge—who is Dalit—this is the Congress’ other big card: The AHINDA vote. The term was coined in the 1970s by former Congress CM Devaraj Urs. The acronym stands for Alpasankhyataru (minorities), Hindulidavaru (backward classes) and Dalitaru (Dalits). A great part of Congress’ recent success in the state is due to this return to its populist roots.
Quote to note: Siddaramaiah poses a formidable challenge to the BJP’s success with marginalised voters—who have been key to its victories elsewhere. And he is doing his best to play to their loyalties:
“A lot of people are angry with me because I stand in favour of the poor. They attack me from the time they wake up. You have to hold my hand. The BJP and JD(S) are saying they will win 28 of the 28 seats in Karnataka,” Siddaramaiah said in his home constituency of Varuna earlier this month.
Siddaramaiah’s move to suggest his future as the CM is at stake in the Lok Sabha polls is seen as an effort to consolidate the votes of the Kuruba community and Muslims (accounting for nearly 19% of votes in the state) who are considered ardent supporters of the CM.
In conclusion: A look at the polls
Despite all this deep contemplation of caste tea leaves, the pundits still can’t agree on who will come out ahead. The great disparity between local and national pollsters is truly mind-boggling.
The big name pollsters: predict BJP will retain its chokehold on the Lok Sabha seats. India TV says it will win 21 out of 28 seats—while Congress will only manage five. The ABP-C Voter survey also puts BJP’s total at 21. News18 is the most optimistic. It expects BJP to retain its tally of 25.
But, but, but: The two surveys conducted by Kannada media house Eedina threw up an entirely different result. Its first survey—conducted between February 15 and March 5—predicted a 17-seat tally for Congress and 11 for BJP. It expects a 10% shift in vote share—from the BJP-JD(S) alliance to the Congress. Though the totals are roughly the same—42.35% and 43.77%, respectively.
The second survey was conducted between March 28 to April 14—after the candidate list was announced. This one gives anywhere between 13 and 18 seats to Congress—with a possible vote share of 46.41%. The BJP-JD(S) alliance will get between 10 and 13 seats—with a 44.27% vote share:
Interestingly, its latest survey found a swell in the Congress’s support, with the party gaining by 2.64% in terms of vote share within the span of a month, translating into a greater number of seats. If the momentum remains with the Congress, the survey speculated, its tally could also go up to 20.
Reminder: The BJP single-handedly won 51% of the votes in 2019.
What’s happening here? Accurate or not, the results are interesting because they challenge the biases of both sides. The surveys found that Karnataka voters have a lot of respect for the Prime Minister:
A large number of respondents (47.64%) believed that India’s stature has grown under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and around 69% of respondents gave a thumbs-up to Modi and rated his regime either satisfactory or excellent. Over 45% of them believed that he should get a third term.
But 56% also think Congress cares more about the ordinary Indian—the number is 60% among women. In other words, the party’s populist pitch has worked.
It’s sorta the economy, stupid: Just weeks ago, a comprehensive national survey seemed to show that both the BJP and Modi have escaped all blame for economic pain—be it inflation, corruption or unemployment (we laid out in this Eye Candy). But the Eedina survey suggests that’s not entirely true. The greatest percentages of voters say all three have increased under BJP rule—and hold the party responsible. But they are reluctant to directly assign blame to Modi. And 50% still say they’re satisfied with his governance.
The most interesting bit: Many experts say the Congress has not been able to sway Karnataka voters with its pitch about financial injustice—that the stepmotherly BJP government has not given the state its fair share of tax revenues. But the Eedina survey indicates nearly 42% seem to have bought the argument—while almost 31% don’t know or can’t say. In other words, they remain the ‘persuadables’—something for Opposition parties to think about long after this election is done.
Point to note: Eedina was the only media house to accurately predict a Congress victory in the 2023 state assembly polls.
The bottomline: Even Eedina pollsters say that the differences are narrow in most constituencies—and the election is still too close to call. Anything can change in these last weeks. Ah, Indian politics—never a dull moment, and we wouldn’t have it any other way.
We leave you with this quote from the Hindustan Times on the 2023 state elections. It holds just as true for the Lok Sabha vote—and not just in Karnataka:
The real importance of Karnataka’s verdict… lies in the fact that India’s electoral democracy provides enough space to all parties to compete, where even a weaker opposition party can score a win over a more powerful rival. It lies in the fact that Indian federalism is robust and the political sensibility in a state can vary from what may appear to be the national mood. It lies in the fact that voters have shown that they will not hesitate to punish governments that don’t serve their constitutional and popular mandates, and reward political parties that can articulate and aggregate the concerns of citizens in an effective manner. And in that sense, Karnataka’s importance lies in ensuring that no party can take its political dominance for granted and Indian democracy retains its vitality.
Reading list
For the best analysis of the Eedina surveys, read The Wire and The News Minute. We laid out the caste dynamics in greater detail here and here. For a detailed account of the caste calculations, read The Wire and Indian Express. MoneyControl explains why the Vokkaligas are betting on DK. Hindustan Times explains why Karnataka matters.
